Tribunal Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia

Page 20519

 1                           Wednesday, 11 May 2011

 2                           [Open session]

 3                           [The accused entered court]

 4                           --- Upon commencing at 9.05 a.m.

 5             THE REGISTRAR:  Good morning, Your Honours.  This is case

 6     number IT-08-91-T, the Prosecutor versus Mico Stanisic and

 7     Stojan Zupljanin.

 8             JUDGE HALL:  Thank you, Madam Registrar.

 9             Good morning to everyone.  May we take today's appearances,

10     please.

11             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, Gramsci De Fazio and

12     Tom Hannis and Crispian Smith for the Prosecution.

13             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Good morning, Your Honours.

14     Mr. Stanisic's Defence team: Slobodan Cvijetic [Realtime translation read

15     in error "Zecevic"] and Eugene O'Sullivan.

16             MR. KRGOVIC:  Good morning, Your Honours.  Dragan Krgovic and

17     Aleksandar Aleksic appearing for Zupljanin Defence.

18             JUDGE HALL:  Thank you.

19             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Just briefly, Your Honours, it's

20     Slobodan Cvijetic, for the record, rather than Slobodan Zecevic; I think

21     it has been recorded wrongly.

22                           [The witness takes the stand]

23             JUDGE HALL:  Good morning to you, Professor Pasalic.  Before I

24     invite Mr. Cvijetic to continue --

25             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Good morning.

Page 20520

 1             JUDGE HALL:  Before I invite Mr. Cvijetic to continue his

 2     examination-in-chief, I remind you you are still on your oath.

 3             Yes, Mr. Cvijetic.

 4             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Thank you, Your Honours.

 5                           WITNESS: STEVO PASALIC [Resumed]

 6                           [Witness answered through interpreter]

 7                           Examination by Mr. Cvijetic [Continued]

 8        Q.   [Interpretation] Mr. Pasalic, Professor, good morning.

 9        A.   Good morning.

10        Q.   Professor, we will move now to the chapter beginning with

11     paragraph 13 in your report, which you entitled "Demographic

12     Characteristics of the Population of Bosnia-Herzegovina in the

13     Period Between 1918 and 1991."

14             Professor, you are practically dealing here with the historical

15     context of the ethnodemographic changes and the ethnic composition of the

16     areas which are the subject of your report.  My question is this:  Why

17     should the historical context be relevant for such a report as this and,

18     of course, for the particular subject that we are dealing with here?

19        A.   In order to be aware of the presence and be a good visionary for

20     the future, you have to have really good knowledge of the past when you

21     are studying any phenomenon or process.  In this case, considering the

22     complexity of the ethnodemographic processes in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and

23     viewing them in a long historical period, the historical context is

24     unavoidable when drafting a report such as this one.  So it is necessary

25     to understand phenomena over a longer time-period.  I limited myself to

Page 20521

 1     the twentieth century only as it is characterised by dramatic social,

 2     historical, and other events in Bosnia-Herzegovina, just like elsewhere.

 3             We cannot understand everything that was happening in Bosnia and

 4     Herzegovina in the last decade of the twentieth century unless we are

 5     well aware of the history of this region.  Historical events had a mostly

 6     indirect impact on all the contemporary events, let me call them so,

 7     which occurred from the beginning of the 1990s up until practically this

 8     day.  This is why I thought that in order to --

 9             JUDGE HALL:  Sorry, but I'm reminding you to slow down because

10     what you say has to be interpreted.

11             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] All right.  In this context, I

12     drafted a chapter which dealt with the area of Bosnia-Herzegovina between

13     1918 and 1991.  I recall that two wars occurred in the area of

14     Bosnia-Herzegovina in this period in which large numbers of people

15     perished.  I said yesterday that the total number was around one million

16     people in the First and Second World Wars.  They were direct or indirect

17     victims in these wars.  That had a great impact on the population in

18     Bosnia and Herzegovina and it was reflected in the events that took place

19     during the wars between 1991 and 1995.

20             On the basis of what is stated in this chapter, we can follow all

21     the complex and relevant demographic, ethnodemographic, and other

22     movements in Bosnia and Herzegovina.  I think that everything is properly

23     founded on facts here, that the sources are very relevant, as I

24     emphasised in the report.  Better studies and sources of data are not

25     available for this kind of study dealing with Bosnia-Herzegovina in the

Page 20522

 1     pre-war period.  And when I say pre-war, I have in mind the latest war

 2     that took place in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

 3             And I will say, frankly, that the works of Ms. Tabeau and also

 4     the work of the Research and Documentation Centre in Sarajevo do not

 5     include this approach which I firmly believe reduces the

 6     comprehensiveness and the details of their studies.  I repeat once again:

 7     You have to know really well the past of a specific area in order to be

 8     aware of the present moment and in order to be able to project what might

 9     happen in future.  And when I say this, I only have in mind demographic

10     developments, just to be clear about that.

11        Q.   Beginning in paragraph 29, you present rather precise data on the

12     victims of all peoples who used to live in Bosnia-Herzegovina during the

13     Second World War; Serbs, Croats, Muslims, Jews, and others.  I am just

14     interested, what were the sources from which you took the data about

15     victims from this time-period?

16        A.   I properly cited the sources of information which I believe to be

17     the most relevant.  The authors who produced these reports know more

18     about these issues than I do; this is why I took the data from them.  As

19     explained in footnotes 6 and 7, there is a series of ethnic composition

20     of the population of Bosnia-Herzegovina produced by the

21     University of Belgrade, it's faculty of geography, before the war which

22     broke out in the territory of the former Yugoslavia.  The sources

23     concerning the victims of the 1941 to 1945 war are mentioned briefly just

24     so that we would have the context and understand the continued troubles

25     of the population in this area throughout history.  There is also a map

Page 20523

 1     produced by Strahinja Kurdulija which I mention in footnote 7.  So once

 2     again this is information that I took over from prestigious publications,

 3     as I, indeed, say in my report.

 4        Q.   Professor, as for the area of Posavina, since I will be dealing

 5     with it later on, and the area of Krajina, are these two characteristic

 6     in this sense when it comes to the number of victims as discussed in your

 7     previous chapter, and who were these victims?

 8        A.   If victims from the Second World War are what you imply, Krajina

 9     is a wide region in Bosnia-Herzegovina which sustained most losses in the

10     war in terms of percentages.  It had the greatest number of victims in

11     the Second World War.  Posavina too, but not so much because the ethnic

12     composition of the population is different in Posavina than in Krajina.

13     Krajina was predominantly populated by the Serbs, whereas Posavina is

14     characteristic by a greater mixture of Serbs and Croats.

15             The percentage of the Bosniak population is just symbolic in the

16     Posavina area.  But if you had that in mind, it is quite certain that

17     this was reflected, I would say, in the war events between 1992 and 1995;

18     namely, the population remembered or learned what happened during the

19     previous wars, and everyone felt fear, insecurity, caution, and the war

20     in Bosnia-Herzegovina which became a certainty at one moment instilled a

21     dose of fear in the entire population.  We mentioned that yesterday and

22     we will prove it by official data about refugees, displaced persons, the

23     victims of the war, cleansing, ethnic cleansing, deportation within

24     Bosnia-Herzegovina and outside of Bosnia-Herzegovina and including, as I

25     would emphasise, all the ethnic groups.  There was no selection.

Page 20524

 1        Q.   Professor, in section 3 which begins with paragraph 74, you deal

 2     with forced migrations of the Serbian population region by region.  And

 3     under paragraph 79 you briefly state the reasons why you are dealing with

 4     Serbian migrations.

 5             Can you please answer in more detail and explain why forced

 6     migrations of the Serbian population should be relevant for this case and

 7     for your report.

 8        A.   Let me start by saying this:  It is noticeable that earlier

 9     studies, and I primarily have in mind the research and the report of

10     Ms. Tabeau, dealt with other ethnic groups.  I also have in mind the

11     studies of other researchers who did not do such a detailed study of the

12     area.  During the war between 1992 and 1995, I conducted some research as

13     a member of an institution, not as an individual or a private person, an

14     institution which was called a State Documentation Centre for the

15     Research of War Crimes Against the Members of the Serbian People.

16             Had I even wished, I was unable to study forced migrations of

17     other peoples because I was limited in my movements just like all the

18     other inhabitants because the area of Bosnia-Herzegovina was under the

19     control of various military formations.  For this reason, I continuously,

20     for five full years, studied these processes, that is to say, migrations

21     which are mostly forced in war, even though we may classify them, as I

22     said yesterday, as ethnic cleansing, deportation, and population

23     transfer.

24             So I limited myself to the areas in which I studied the

25     migrations or, to be even more specific, forced migrations, of the

Page 20525

 1     Serbian population within Bosnia and Herzegovina.  In order to ensure

 2     that my work would be of highest possible quality and as comprehensive as

 3     possible, I conditionally divided the area which I studied into ten

 4     regions, considering the war time circumstances.  I said conditionally

 5     because if I took a scientific view of the regionalisation of

 6     Bosnia-Herzegovina then it would look somewhat different than as I

 7     presented in this report and in the context of the war.

 8             While analysing these regions, as they may be conditionally

 9     called, I obtained relevant data primarily, as I already pointed out, by

10     empirical research, which is the highest level of scientific research in

11     science, in terms of research.  But this is not all.  You will see in the

12     attached annexes that I also used official sources of information, the

13     ones which were the most relevant at the time, and these were population

14     censuses.  By combining these various approaches, we managed to obtain

15     the best available information at the time.  However, I wish to emphasise

16     quite objectively that the numbers and the research results which I

17     established should be considered final.  I do not think that the whole

18     process has been finalised and that we have reached final results.

19             So far no one has managed to do that for the area of

20     Bosnia-Herzegovina, including there the work done by Ms. Ewa Tabeau.  She

21     herself admitted that directly in a quotation.

22        Q.   In paragraph 79 you say that the movement of the Serbian

23     population has an initial character.  I'm going to use the same

24     terminology that is used by you, demographers, and you say that it is a

25     chain reaction that then initialises the movements of other ethnic

Page 20526

 1     groups.  Did I quote you properly?

 2        A.   Yes, this is the essence.  As I have already pointed out, it is

 3     necessary to emphasise the complexity of all the processes and movements

 4     in Bosnia-Herzegovina, including the whole population.  And as we know,

 5     the population comprises of the three ethnic group, three constituent

 6     peoples, as well as members of other peoples.  If we study all this in a

 7     comprehensive way, we obtain a realistic and a comprehensive picture of

 8     all the events in Bosnia and Herzegovina including the demographic aspect

 9     that we are discussing today.  We could, of course, also touch upon other

10     subjects, but that is not my task here.

11        Q.   And then in chapter 3 that you entitle "Ethnodemographic Changes

12     in BH During the War, 1992 to 1995," and in the subheading "Posavina" on

13     the following page, you deal with one of the ten regions that you

14     mention; is that so?  Before I ask you a specific question, I want to ask

15     you the following:  Is that the area through which the municipalities

16     linked to the so-called corridor -- and everybody here at this Tribunal

17     knows about the corridor, so I simply want to ask you, is that the area

18     that you are discussing here?

19        A.   To put it briefly, yes.  So that is the reason why the

20     demographic movement during the war in this very complex area that we

21     researched, and it will be very interesting to hear some of my findings

22     that I'm ready to present to you now.

23        Q.   Of course I will not go into all ten regions because we can find

24     the details in your report.  I would like to pause here at this area

25     which is very important for the Defence.

Page 20527

 1             In paragraph 81 and especially 82, you say that the war

 2     practically moved from Croatia to Bosnia-Herzegovina crossing through

 3     this specific area.  You say that this was the territory of the

 4     Bosanski Brod municipality where that large crime was committed involving

 5     256 Bosnian Serb civilians.  Did this movement of the war from Croatia to

 6     Bosnia and Herzegovina, did it initialise all the movements of the

 7     population in Bosnia and Herzegovina?  Did this initiative, so it be

 8     called, start in this particular area?

 9        A.   As it is stated here in the report, and this is also the official

10     position, the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina began right here in this

11     area.  It happened in March 1992.  That's when the first victims lost

12     their lives.  And we find here a precise number:  256 civilians were

13     killed.  And about 30.000 Serbs in Posavina set out from their homes and

14     hearths and began moving to other areas.

15             In paragraph 81, we find precise data, relative data, which

16     outlines the percentages of Serbs living in individual municipalities in

17     the area of Posavina.  These are the results of the population census

18     from 1991.  Bearing in mind that the war practically began in this area,

19     and also since we know that the regular Army of the Republic of Croatia

20     entered this area and that's when the casualties occurred, the conflicts

21     then started to move to other areas.

22             At the time, Posavina was practically emptied of its Serb

23     population.  The Croat population was dominant there.  And as I have

24     already mentioned, there was a small percentage of Bosniaks.  We are

25     probably going to see during the rest of my testimony that this area

Page 20528

 1     changed hands on a number of occasions and that is also the reason for

 2     the movements of the population.

 3             Let us take, for example, the town of Modrica which is situated

 4     in Posavina.  It changed its population on a number of occasions.  The

 5     population withdrew, fleeing before the military formations looking for

 6     more secure areas for temporary occupation.  This is characteristic of

 7     the whole of Posavina.  And then, as we have already mentioned, the

 8     domino effect, or the chain reaction, spread the conflict to other areas

 9     within Bosnia and Herzegovina.  It happened because a large transfer of

10     population began from certain areas and then they went looking for more

11     peaceful areas which had not been the place of the conflict before.

12             If you look into the annexes, you will find specific data about

13     the suffering of Serb population in the areas that I researched in my

14     report.

15        Q.   Professor, of course Bosanski Brod was not the only target of

16     Croatian Armed Forces.  You know that at a certain point the corridor was

17     broken into two because a number of municipalities were taken over.  What

18     I would like to know is the following:  Did the same process occur in

19     those municipalities as well?  And I'm talking here about the movement of

20     population.

21        A.   Of course.  You can find it here.  We are not talking only about

22     Bosanski Brod.  It all began in Bosanski Brod when regular

23     Croatian Armed Forces crossed the Sava River and enter Bosanski Brod.

24     After that, the situation spread to Derventa, that is the following

25     border municipality, with a relatively large number of Serbs living in

Page 20529

 1     it.  After that, the process spread towards Modrica and partly towards

 2     Doboj because --

 3             MR. Di FAZIO:  Your Honour, please, I'm having great trouble

 4     following all of this evidence, and I'm not sure if the witness is

 5     perhaps straying into matters that are far beyond his expertise, namely

 6     military history, but he keeps talking about that the processes going on

 7     and occurring and flowing on from certain events, and I have no idea,

 8     frankly, what he's talking about, and I fear that the Chamber might not

 9     have any idea.  We should be clear if the witness is talking about

10     migration movements or population movements or demographic movements or

11     whether he's talking about military events.  I can't distinguish between

12     the two.

13             JUDGE HALL:  Unless I misunderstood the earlier remarks of the

14     witness, his conclusions are that the population movements are interwoven

15     with these military events.  And as he is recounting the -- what happened

16     at this point, I don't know that it is impermissible for him to attempt

17     to separate out the military events which, as I understand his testimony,

18     as I said, I may be completely misled or misunderstand what he is saying,

19     is the context in which all of this is happening.

20             MR. Di FAZIO:  Very well, Your Honours.  But I would alert you

21     to -- or I do have misgivings about the fact that he may be straying

22     into, firstly, areas of military history; and, secondly, when he does

23     provide his evidence, it's not clear to me if he's talking about

24     migrational movements or military consequences of certain actions.

25             For example, when he talks about the regular

Page 20530

 1     Croatian Armed Forces crossing the Sava and entering Bosanski Brod, after

 2     the that the situation spread to Derventa and that is the following

 3     border and then the process spread towards Modrica; what did?  The

 4     military processes or the migrational movements?  How do we know all of

 5     this?  It's not clear from the testimony, and that's my -- the cause of

 6     my concern.

 7             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Cvijetic, it may be helpful for you to guide --

 8     you take Mr. Di Fazio's point?  It may be helpful to you to guide the

 9     witness in terms of separating the one from the other.  Thank you.

10             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honour, I think that your

11     reasoning is very precise.  You have understood the reasons because of

12     which we are doing this.  This expert is not talking about the military

13     operations as a military expert.  He is simply giving the context of the

14     migrational movements of the population in the relevant areas.  He simply

15     touched upon the military operations as the direct cause of the

16     movements.  I will accept your suggestion and I'm immediately going to

17     ask a very specific question.

18        Q.   Let us take, for instance, Modrica.  You said that it is

19     characteristic because it was under the control of various military

20     forces on a number of occasions.  Was it also accompanied by the

21     movements of the population depending on under whose control the town

22     was?  We are talking, of course, about all the three populations.

23        A.   All right, but I would like to respond to the intervention by the

24     Prosecutor, if you would permit me, because it is very important.

25             JUDGE HALL:  Professor Pasalic, it would be simpler if you were

Page 20531

 1     to be guided by counsel and answer his questions.

 2             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

 3        Q.   Do you remember the question?

 4        A.   Yes, yes.  All right.  But in this case, I would like to

 5     emphasise the following:  I'm trying to explain that everything that

 6     happened in the area of Posavina happened in a certain causal

 7     relationship.  If you have consequences, then there should have been a

 8     cause.  So if we are talking about migrations, we have to notice that the

 9     cause of those migrations were the interventions on part of military

10     formations.  It is certainly not my intention, and I have managed to

11     avoid it in the whole of my report, to discuss military operations.  I'm

12     not qualified to do that.

13             However, when you research a certain event, you have to discover

14     its causes and explain its consequences.  Transfer of the population, the

15     deportation of the population, from this area and other areas, it is all

16     simply a consequence of something, and that is the context that I tried

17     to give while answering the specific question of the Defence.

18             Let us take Modrica.  The population of Modrica changed on a

19     number of occasions.  It all depended on other processes that were taking

20     place in this area.  During a certain period of time, Modrica was

21     inhabited by Serbian population; after that by Muslim and Croat

22     population; and then after certain events, the Serbian population

23     returned to that area.  Of course today this picture is different and all

24     three ethnic groups live there, including all those who wanted to return

25     to their previous homes.  They were able to do that.

Page 20532

 1             So this is the context within which I'm viewing all the events,

 2     and that also includes your specific question relating to Modrica.

 3     Modrica is merely a representative example of all the events that

 4     occurred in the area of Posavina, from Bosanski Brod all the way to the

 5     area of Brcko.

 6        Q.   Professor, do you have data about the direction of the movement

 7     of the population from the areas caught up in the war?  Where did they

 8     seek shelter?

 9        A.   Yes.  During that period, and I'm talking about the beginning of

10     the war, the population moved in that direction where it could move.  By

11     that I mean where it was possible to use the roads.  Some of them went

12     towards the area of Semberija; that is Bijeljina.  Others went to the

13     area of Ozren; that's the hinterland of the town of Doboj.  Some of them

14     stayed in the area of Doboj, while a contingent went towards -- west

15     towards Krajina in the area of Banja Luka.  So the displacement took

16     place in all four directions, looking at the compass.  And also, of

17     course, towards the areas outside of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as much as

18     circumstances permitted.

19        Q.   Professor, now let us leave the introduction and go back to your

20     thesis about the causes of demographic and ethnic movements in the area

21     of Bosnia and Herzegovina.  You already told us there are sociological,

22     political, economic, and other causes.  I did not manage to pigeon-hole

23     the movements in Posavina, to link them with one specific reason or

24     cause.  How would you do it?  How would you categorise it?  Please, use

25     very simple language.

Page 20533

 1        A.   If you take a better look at the factors that I enumerated in the

 2     introduction, then you will see that the dominant factor was the first

 3     factor, the political factor.  I have already explained that it includes

 4     breaches of human rights, and we can see that at that moment there were

 5     serious human rights violations, peoples lives were threatened, they did

 6     not feel secure, so that is definitely a political factor.  At the moment

 7     there was a certain risk for a certain ethnic group.  In this particular

 8     case, we are talking about the Serbs who were threatened by other ethnic

 9     groups.  This is very simple.  These are facts.

10             Of course, the main factor is always accompanied by the secondary

11     factors, such as economic; the population was blockaded economically

12     speaking.  They did not have supplies of food, and there were no jobs.

13     So that was another fear that set them into movement.  Then there are the

14     psychological factors, some of them objective, some of them more

15     subjective.  People wanted to link up with their families and also move

16     the area because of some objective reasons.  But I would like to

17     emphasise that this is still the political factor.  That was the dominant

18     factor because there was still a risk posed by the other ethnic group

19     that lived in the same area.

20        Q.   Can we add something to that: That this is simply fleeing from

21     the war and due to fear of war?  I did not use a single demographic term

22     at that.

23        A.   You're right.  I explained that yesterday.  War as a phenomenon

24     creates fear, uncertainty among the population, and in Bosnia-Herzegovina

25     there was a wave of refugees due to that psychological factor.  Not only

Page 20534

 1     due to coercion.  Of course, that happened in this area as well.  When

 2     the first victims fell, this created even greater uncertainty and led to

 3     even more fear among many people.

 4             Let me just point out that this was not the case only with one

 5     ethnic group.  The members of all the ethnic groups in Bosnia-Herzegovina

 6     were fleeing from the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina for the reasons I

 7     mentioned just now.  They went elsewhere.  Yesterday I refer to 2 million

 8     people that were on the move.  That is practically half of the BH

 9     population according to the census.  Out of a population of 4.370.000,

10     2 million were on the move.  Not all of them were forced out, I mean by

11     military forces.  They simply pre-empted the situation in order to find a

12     safer place to live because of the war that had engulfed the area.

13             That is the essence on the basis of which you can understand what

14     was happening in this area over the three or four years of war.

15        Q.   All right.

16             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Can I just ask you to clarify the last answer

17     that you have just given.  When you say that "2 million people were on

18     the move," and then you add that "not all of them were forced out ... by

19     military forces," but rather because of their attempt to pre-empt "the

20     situation in order to find a safer place to live because of the war that

21     had engulfed the area," this sounds to me to be a bit contradictory and

22     I'm asking for a clarification, because if you say that they didn't move

23     away from the place that they were living because of the war, then how

24     come that you, in the next sentence, say that the reason they left was

25     because of the war?  I mean, you touched upon it yesterday as well, and

Page 20535

 1     you did maintain that at least some parts of the movements that took

 2     place in the area were really, and I think you used the word voluntary

 3     movements.  And I had difficulty in understanding this correctly because

 4     my assumption would be, and you may contradict me if I have misunderstood

 5     this, my assumption would be that people don't just give up their houses

 6     and their farms and their places of residence without there being a very

 7     specific reason for doing so.  And in war time, restrictions of movements

 8     are quite often limited.  So to the extent in which people actually do

 9     move away from their residence in war time, my assumption would be that

10     the majority of people who move do so because of the war.

11             So maybe it is not a direct consequence of the war, but it is

12     certainly an indirect consequence.  In neither of these two cases,

13     however, I would characterise the move as being voluntary.

14             So could you clarify what you meant yesterday by "voluntary

15     movement," and could you hold it up against your assumption just now that

16     it was really the war who prompted most of the movements here, please?

17     Thanks.

18             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Very well.  The last thing I said

19     came out in a sort of clumsy sentence.  This was a war-engulfed area.  I

20     mean, they were actually pre-empting the situation; they were leaving

21     areas that had not been engulfed by the war yet but that was about to be

22     engulfed by the war.  Yesterday I talked about voluntary migration, I

23     think I pointed out under quotations marks.  Technically that is not the

24     way it is put in the paper, truth to tell, because we have to admit that

25     in a war psychosis there is no voluntariness.  The circumstances of war

Page 20536

 1     are such or if there is any kind of intimation that certain areas will be

 2     engulfed by war, leads to fear, insecurity, fear for one's own life, and

 3     then that started, under quotations marks, "voluntary migrations."

 4             I can illustrate that by concrete examples, families.  I and my

 5     family left the town where we lived due to that psychosis, although no

 6     one expelled us.  I felt this insecurity on the eve of a war, and that

 7     happened a few days before the armed conflict there.  Your movements are

 8     restricted, you have to wait for bread in line for several hours, one

 9     bread per family per day, you are not free to communicate, all your

10     movements and conversations are monitored.  Although, let me say this as

11     well, in that particular milieux, I was a rather prominent person,

12     professionally speaking and politically speaking, if that is relevant, I

13     was the last president of the Socialist Alliance of the Working People in

14     my municipality.  It was a broad movement encompassing all ethnic groups.

15     However, at that time this was no longer important; it was only ethnicity

16     that was considered to be important.  That's how I spoke about these

17     "voluntary migrations," although technically that is not referred to in

18     my report in that way.  I agree that war as an armed phenomenon cannot

19     lead to sincere voluntariness.  There is this psychosis of coercion

20     involved in all cases but there is an indirect and direct effect in all

21     areas.  On my own example, I showed that this happened in an indirect

22     way.  It's not that anyone pointed a weapon at me directly and expelled

23     me in that way.

24             Yesterday I also explained that transfer of the population and

25     deportation is not ethnic cleansing.  Ethnic cleansing of the population

Page 20537

 1     is carried out only in areas where it is done quickly and by force.

 2     Throughout history, that happened in different international contexts and

 3     it also happened in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  What I'm trying to confirm and

 4     say in this way is that Ms. Tabeau's report and others did not categorise

 5     these migrations, and I think that it was indispensable to do that, to

 6     see what is ethnic cleansing, that is to say, removing the population,

 7     the undesirable population, from a particular area quickly and by force.

 8     On the other hand, what is transfer of population, and yet a more extreme

 9     version, that is, genocide.  That is the fourth category, the fourth

10     group that I'm referring to within the entire migrations of a population

11     from an area due to armed conflict.

12             What I wish to indicate in my paper was that this was not done in

13     Ms. Tabeau's paper or in some other papers and that would have been

14     indispensable.  However, I just indicated the problem.  I did not

15     elaborate on it either to such an extent.  Quite simply, I did not have

16     the proper capacities from -- for that from the point of view of

17     knowledge and so on.

18             I hope that this is an answer to your question.

19             JUDGE HARHOFF:  I think I have understood you correctly.  But are

20     you suggesting that when people move in a time when the area in which

21     they live is engulfed in armed conflict then there are basically two

22     reasons: One part of the people who move away do so because they are

23     targeted, and in that case you call it ethnic cleansing; another part of

24     the people move out of the area not because they are targeted, but

25     because of the inconvenience caused by the armed conflict, insecurity,

Page 20538

 1     fear, and maybe other psychological reasons, but for those you call them

 2     voluntary movements?  Is that correctly understood?

 3             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Okay.  That is the essence,

 4     basically.  However, then we have to carry out another categorisation in

 5     view of the population, and that is another one of shortcomings of

 6     Ms. Tabeau's paper and others.  Namely, at the beginning of the war we

 7     know what the overall population is, and it is categorised into military

 8     persons and civilian persons.  What you are referring to, that is to say,

 9     leaving due to the war, was primarily something that happened to

10     civilians who were not directly targeted by the war.  It was members of

11     military units that were directly targeted by war.  In that context, I

12     was trying to prove here that there were mass transfers of the population

13     or deportations out of fear and a feeling of a fear for one's life and a

14     general feeling of insecurity, or if there had already been some armed

15     conflicts.  Therefore, it is indispensable in all of our papers to carry

16     out yet another categorisation, soldiers, civilians.

17             Later on I can explain what is one and what is the other.  And I

18     can explain what it looked like in the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina

19     and also what the shortcomings are of all of our papers, because we

20     omitted to carry out such an important categorisation in view of civilian

21     and military victims because to a large extent this creates a different

22     picture if things are not this way, if we look at the suffering of

23     civilians and members of the military belonging to a particular ethnic

24     group.  If I understand your question correctly, that is.

25             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Well, I wasn't really making a distinction

Page 20539

 1     between civilian and military persons because my assumption was that if

 2     you belong to the targeted group and an attack is coming, then you would

 3     try to escape by moving away and you would do so regardless of whether

 4     you were a military person or a civilian person.  So what you are

 5     introducing now is another subdistinction in which you suggest that if

 6     you belong to the targeted group and you are indeed a military person,

 7     then you might consider to stay on in order to defend the area; whereas

 8     those who fled away would then typically be persons who were not

 9     military, that is to say, civilians would seek to fly away from the

10     area -- to flee away from the area in order to seek protection, while the

11     military personnel would stay behind and defend the area.

12             Does that provide a meaningful understanding of what you're

13     saying?

14             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Yes.  The military will stay behind

15     to defend the area if they can.  They're protecting civilians who are

16     leaving before them.  However, if a certain territory falls, as they say

17     in military speak, there is a selection among the undesirable population.

18     In most cases, it is children, women, and the elderly that are deported.

19     That is a military rule.  And in most cases that is what happened in the

20     territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  That is what I categorise as population

21     transfer, not ethnic cleansing, although this was caused by the military

22     conflicts between the two sides involved in any particular part in

23     Bosnia-Herzegovina.  That is what led to this mass transfer or, under

24     quotation marks, "voluntary migrations" due to the danger looming over a

25     particular territory because of an armed conflict.  That is how I viewed

Page 20540

 1     the problem, and I think that basically that is what it is.  However,

 2     unfortunately sometimes no selection was carried out and a great many

 3     civilians were the victims.  They were victimised either by military or

 4     paramilitary formations.

 5             JUDGE HARHOFF:  I think we are getting close to the core of the

 6     matter.  Because I would have thought that if the purpose of the military

 7     operation was to drive away people who belonged to the targeted group,

 8     then once the area had fallen as a result of the attack, then the

 9     deportation of women and children and elderly would, in my view, be the

10     perfect example of ethnic cleansing; but do you not agree?

11             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I do not agree.  If we start from

12     the qualification that ethnic cleansing is only what is carried out

13     quickly and by force, in those situations, yes.  However, since

14     deportation was underway, deportation of the population from a particular

15     area, we cannot consider that to be ethnic cleansing.  That is, indeed,

16     removal of an undesirable population, but it was not carried out quickly

17     and by force.  There were some intentions of planned removals, then we

18     have to touch upon the nature of the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina and that

19     is what I do not like to deal with in my paper because that is not my

20     field.  Partly it was a civil war, partly it was a religious war, and in

21     part it was a fight for certain territories.  That is why the presence of

22     a particular ethnic group was undesirable in a particular area.  However,

23     we cannot consider all of it to be ethnic cleansing.  That is where I

24     disagree.  I repeat: I proceed from my understanding of ethnic cleansing

25     and that is something that is carried out quickly and by force.  I gave

Page 20541

 1     you my very own example, and I'm one of the many thousands of persons who

 2     left certain areas for various reasons, although this was not done

 3     quickly or by force in my case or in the case of other individuals in a

 4     particular area.  That is how I explained that process, bearing in mind

 5     this qualification of ethnic cleansing.

 6             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Thank you, Professor.

 7             Back to you, Mr. Cvijetic.

 8             JUDGE DELVOIE:  Just one moment, please.  I wonder, Professor,

 9     whether we have a linguistic or translation problem here.  When you talk

10     about deportation, what do you mean by that word?

11             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Deportation means expulsion of

12     population in the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina or the former

13     Yugoslavia.  It's expulsion but not by force.  And when I say by force, I

14     mean it is done quickly, say, in five hours, for example.  You can take

15     just the bare essentials, the minimum amount of money, and you have to

16     leave a certain territory.  I think that this is not a characteristic of

17     all events in the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina and that this is why we

18     cannot include it all in ethnic cleansing.  This is why we talk about

19     this term deportation which has been internationally established and also

20     transfer of population which is a less severe variation of expulsion in

21     war-time circumstances.  We can illustrate this with numerous examples

22     from the world.  Nothing happened in Bosnia-Herzegovina which was not

23     already well-known practice internationally

24                           [Trial Chamber confers]

25             JUDGE DELVOIE:  So, Professor, in your view deportation has

Page 20542

 1     nothing to do with forcible transfer of or moving people, forcible?  You

 2     say it has nothing to do with forced removal of population?  So, for

 3     instance, your personal initiative to move out of fear, you qualify that

 4     as deportation?

 5             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] No.  We have not understood each

 6     other.  I said clearly that in armed forces any movement of the

 7     population comes under forced migration in a wider sense, but then we can

 8     make a classification of sub-categories:  There are two extreme ones,

 9     genocide and ethnic cleansing; and two not so severe ones, one is

10     deportation or expulsion and transfer of population.  Under any war-time

11     circumstances, there is nothing quite objectively voluntary.  Maybe if

12     someone was a good visionary, then half a year before the armed conflict

13     he might have peacefully left a certain area.  But in this case I'm

14     talking about population movements by classifying them in these four

15     categories.

16             Perhaps some other subdivisions could have been made, and then it

17     would have been even more precisely defined as part of a deportation or

18     transfer and so on.  However, none of that is voluntary.  It is more or

19     less forced, to a smaller or greater extent.  Everything is to an extent

20     forced directly or indirectly and it is taking place in areas which are

21     affected by war.  Any war, not just the one in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

22             JUDGE DELVOIE:  Could you briefly define the four categories?

23             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Let me repeat.  Due to armed

24     conflict or other conflicts, there are forced migrations of population.

25     Let us leave aside the area.  It doesn't matter if it's

Page 20543

 1     Bosnia-Herzegovina or some other place.  Due to the forced migration,

 2     there are two extreme categories.  They are genocide and ethnic

 3     cleansing, though we are not dealing with genocide here.  Ethnic

 4     cleansing is only what is carried out fast and by force in a certain

 5     area, as I explained earlier.  Between these two extreme categories, two

 6     less severe categories are deportation or expulsion and transfer or

 7     exchange of population.  As, for example, in Cyprus between Turkey and

 8     Greece there was a transfer of population between the Northern and

 9     Southern Cypress, to be leave aside the context of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

10     Or a deportation of the so-called undesirable ethnic group; well-known

11     examples can be found internationally.  I tried to explain this in the

12     territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  The essence of my efforts was to prove

13     that in the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina what is often described in

14     these cases as ethnic cleansing is not always that.  There are less

15     severe variants.  So if I understood your question properly, this would

16     be my answer.

17             JUDGE DELVOIE:  So what you did personally and what you call,

18     under quotation marks, "voluntary movements," they are not within those

19     three or four categories?  They -- or not in the two last ones; they are

20     not within deportation or transfer?  Do I understand you right,

21     correctly?

22             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I think that it could be

23     categorised as transfer because I left for an ethnic area populated by

24     Serbs, and other ethnic groups left this area and moved into the area

25     where I had been living.  So if we take this example, we can talk about

Page 20544

 1     mass movements of population in Bosnia-Herzegovina which I described

 2     yesterday as ethnic homogenisation of the population.  This is something

 3     that is well-known from other international practices.  It was a sort of

 4     transfer, but we should not view it from an individual point of view,

 5     because a transfer is made up of a large group of people.  I was not the

 6     only one who left in such a manner; it was just for the sake of

 7     illustration that I mentioned my example.  But many other people left as

 8     well.  And moving in the other direction were others who moved into the

 9     area which we left as the ethnic minority in that specific town.

10             JUDGE DELVOIE:  So if I understand you well, the category of

11     deportation is always imposed upon; the people deported, the people

12     displaced, is forced; while transfer can be forced or "voluntary"; is

13     that right?

14             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Mostly so, but as compared to

15     ethnic cleansing, deportation and expulsion take place over a longer

16     period of time.  You can prepare, this is announced, and then a certain

17     group of people are transported to other areas.  That also happened in

18     Bosnia-Herzegovina.  The good side of it with all this force, if I can

19     put it so, is that the population was saved, and all these people from

20     all ethnic groups are thankful that their lives were saved in the war and

21     conflict.  And transfer can be a matter of individual estimate or

22     assessment, that it's good for you to remove yourself from a certain area

23     at a certain moment, or it can be the so-called agreed transfer where one

24     group of people moves to some other territory because yet another group

25     of people who are members of another ethnic group would come to this

Page 20545

 1     specific area.

 2             All in all, these are very complex issues which have not been

 3     clarified sufficiently.  We are just beginning to enter these issues.

 4     This is why I say that, with all due respect to the efforts made by

 5     Ms. Tabeau, some of these issues have not been sufficiently dealt with or

 6     analysed.  It is so with all the rest of us and that is the point of what

 7     I'm saying.  Much we are dealing with phenomena that have not been

 8     researched sufficiently, then we cannot draw proper conclusions because

 9     the research carried out has not been sufficient.  This is what I keep

10     coming back to and what I'm saying.

11             JUDGE DELVOIE:  Thank you.

12             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honours, I think I have

13     another five minutes left.

14        Q.   Quite sufficient to agree with the dilemmas of the Trial Chamber,

15     because I experienced them myself, and it's good that we heard this

16     because some of my questions would have concerned what the Trial Chamber

17     asked you.

18             Tying up to the questions asked by Judge Delvoie, I will try to

19     ask you something more simple.  The transfer that you talked about in

20     your last answer, could one say that the war imposed on people a

21     situation in which people would choose the lesser of two evils?  It is

22     always bad, as Judge Harhoff said, when you have to leave your area.  No

23     one was glad to leave their home.  But if greater evil lies in store for

24     you if you stay, then, under quotation marks, as you say, voluntarily,

25     you would assess that it's better for you to go away, to stay alive, and

Page 20546

 1     perhaps come back some day.  So would my formulation that it is the

 2     choice of lesser of two evils something that is close to your definition

 3     of transfer?

 4        A.   Quite clearly, life is the greatest value that a man has.  And

 5     that was the priority.  And then the second thing would be thinking about

 6     your property, leaving your residence, whether the property would remain

 7     there and be saved or not.  So the priority was to save the people's

 8     lives in the transfer because that's the greatest value that any

 9     individual has.  I think that is quite clear and that it makes clear why

10     there were mass transfers and other forms of migratory movements.  So let

11     me repeat for the third time, life was the priority for any inhabitant in

12     war time and during the conflict and everything else that was taking

13     place.  So that was the core which caused mass transfers.  Unfortunately,

14     there were more severe forms in place as well.

15             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honours, I see the time.  I

16     think we are close to the time when we usually take the break.  Perhaps

17     it would be a good idea to have some rest now, break for a while, and

18     then continue after the break, if you agree.

19             JUDGE HALL:  Very well.  So we resume in 20 minutes.

20                           [The witness stands down]

21                           --- Recess taken at 10.23 a.m.

22                           --- On resuming at 10.49 a.m.

23                           [The witness takes the stand]

24             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Thank you, Your Honour.

25        Q.   Professor, may we continue?

Page 20547

 1        A.   Yes.

 2        Q.   We have been discussing a chapter in your report and I would like

 3     to finish this discussion.  I think that the example of Posavina was a

 4     very good example for the relevant issues.  I'm not going to go into any

 5     detail about the remaining nine regions, but I would like to ask a

 6     question that pertains to all nine regions.  Was the same scenario played

 7     out in the nine remains regions in a similar way and is it possible to

 8     apply everything that you said about Posavina to the remaining nine

 9     regions?

10        A.   Globally speaking, yes.  But you have to take into account the

11     specific circumstances of those individual regions.  I'm talking about

12     the number of aspects and especially about the demographic

13     characteristics of the regions.  There are some differences in ethnic

14     composition in the population, in the age distribution of the population,

15     their lifestyle, and other factors.  But in essence, yes.

16        Q.   If you think that you have a characteristic example for some of

17     the other regions, why don't you choose it yourself and comment it

18     yourself?  It was not my intention to go into any detail about the

19     remaining regions.  So only if you have some details that are different

20     or particular interesting, I would invite you to present them to us.

21        A.   Listen, all these cases are interesting in their own way.  I

22     would like to emphasise briefly another area and that is Central Bosnia.

23     Paragraph 85, 86, 87, including, of course, the annexes.  Yesterday I

24     already emphasised that this area contains the Bosniak population as the

25     dominant population, and this is a typical example, where a process of

Page 20548

 1     ethnic and territorial homogenisation followed forced migrations.  I have

 2     enumerated all the relevant municipalities here in the report.  Serbian

 3     population left that area for some other areas where they felt more safe.

 4     In the report I gave very precise indicators.  The largest town and

 5     municipality in that area was Zenica; absolutely speaking, the largest

 6     number of Serbs lived there.  And if I may conclude, and it is my

 7     understanding that I'm permitted to say so, although this is not written

 8     in the report, today in the area of Central Bosnia we will find only a

 9     symbolic presence of a Serb population in all the municipalities.  I hail

10     from Zavidovici and I'm most familiar with the situation there, and I can

11     say that in Zavidovici there is only one and a half thousand Serbs out of

12     11 and a half thousand Serbs who lived there according to data collected

13     at the last population census in 1991.

14             Similar processes took place in all ten regions that I mentioned.

15     In areas where Serbs were minority or where they lived as a majority in a

16     settlement that did not have status of municipality, in all such areas

17     they had to leave their homes.  You can find all this data in my tables

18     in the annexes.  You will find data and symbols that I used for all the

19     settlements, all municipalities, and all local communes, as well as for

20     each of the regions as a whole.

21        Q.   You mentioned the last issue from that part.  Everything that you

22     present as a description in your report you also present as a table in

23     Annex A, under the sub-annexes A1, -2, -3, and so on.

24             For the reference in Serbian, Annex A begins at page 84.  And in

25     English version it begins at page 86.

Page 20549

 1             Can you turn to the first page that relates to Posavina, because

 2     we have spent most time on Posavina.  And maybe you could use this

 3     example to explain your table, because I suppose that the same goes for

 4     all other tables.  That will enable the Trial Chamber to understand the

 5     data contained in the tables.  And then later on I will ask you something

 6     else.

 7             Did you find it in hard copy?  You can also see it on the screen.

 8     You can choose whatever is more convenient for you.  Maybe if we zoom in

 9     on the screen you will have a better view.

10        A.   It's all the same.  My eyesight is still very good.

11        Q.   And I see that you are not wearing glasses.

12        A.   All right.  I will now explain the methodology of my research.  I

13     have already spoken about it in my previous testimony.  This is a

14     combination of official statistical data.  In the first column, you can

15     find the results of the 1991 census.  Or maybe, excuse me, I should be

16     more clear.  First we have the number for each municipality.  After that

17     we have the name of the municipality.  For instance, Brcko, you can find

18     this municipality here, and municipalities are always in bold.  Then you

19     can see total population according to the census from 1991.  So these are

20     official data.

21             After that, from 1 to 6 you can see the names of the settlements

22     within the Brcko municipality, the settlements in which certain

23     population-related processes took place.  Then you can see the column for

24     the total population in 1991.  You will find in this column the total

25     number of inhabitants for each of the settlements.  The following column

Page 20550

 1     gives the total number of Serbs.  However, only there where Serbs

 2     comprised more than 50 per cent of the total population; that's why you

 3     will find the symbol for more than 50 per cent at the heading of this

 4     column.  The next column shows the total number of Serbs in those

 5     settlements where they were minority, that is, in those settlements where

 6     there was less than 50 per cent Serbs.

 7             So this gives us an insight into the number of population --

 8     number of settlements from which Serbian population was removed, where

 9     there were majority.  And the same also for the settlements where they

10     were minority.

11             I would like to repeat once again that this data was taken over

12     from the statistical bulletin, that is, the official publication that was

13     published in the former Yugoslavia after the 1991 census by the federal

14     statistical institute which collated all the data from all the republics.

15             After that, we see the following columns:  Settlements destroyed

16     or burned.  This column contains the results of my empirical research in

17     the field from 1992 to 1996.  These data are represented by symbols.  If

18     you see a symbol representing a house, it means that this settlement had

19     been burned or devastated or destroyed in some other way, that is, the

20     houses had been burned and looted.  The next column is settlements from

21     which Serbs had been --

22             MR. Di FAZIO:  Your Honours, please, just perhaps if I may assist

23     you.  In the English you'll see a blank space; you won't see any house or

24     any symbol.  If you look at the B/C/S, that's where you see these little

25     houses and tractors.  I think tractors is meant to show expulsion and

Page 20551

 1     houses are destroyed settlements.  So if it's blank in the English, it's

 2     a positive hit, so to speak.

 3             JUDGE HALL:  Thank you, Mr. Di Fazio.  I confess, I was

 4     struggling with the English version trying to understand the testimony.

 5     Thank you.

 6             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Obviously if you combine the two

 7     tables you will be able to follow the testimony.  The English version

 8     does not contain the symbols; that is why you have to use both tables in

 9     order to find the actual contents.  The Professor is obviously commenting

10     the Serbian version and the symbols found in the Serbian version.

11             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I apologise, I haven't even noticed

12     that you don't have this in the English version, which makes it more

13     difficult for you to use the tables.  But you can, of course, always take

14     a look at the Serbian version.  We are not talking about numbers here, we

15     are talking about symbols.

16             So let me repeat.  We have symbols for settlements which had been

17     destroyed, and then you have a motor vehicle symbolising settlements from

18     which the population left.  The last column talks about execution sites

19     of Serb population and the symbol is a cross.  Such a symbol denotes an

20     execution site where at least five persons lost their lives.  And after

21     that we arrived at the total numbers for each municipality and for each

22     region.  This region we call Posavina as a whole.  You can find that at

23     the end of this annex where it says "Posavina, total population according

24     to census," and let me repeat it, I don't want any confusion to arise

25     here:  We are not talking about the total number of inhabitants of

Page 20552

 1     municipalities; we are talking here only about settlements and

 2     municipalities where those processes took place.  And also I'm again

 3     specifying that I'm talking only about the places from which Serbs were

 4     expelled or killed.

 5             These are the results of the five-year research in the field that

 6     was conducted using standardised instruments.  The state centre used

 7     standardised forms that were filled in in the field during the direct

 8     research, either through interviews, polls, or by personal insight.  They

 9     are usual and acceptable methods of scientific research in those cases

10     where other better, more relevant data are unavailable or where better

11     ways of collecting data are unavailable.

12             However, the research was conducted during the war, and this was

13     a typical field research.  I personally consider this the most valuable

14     part of the report because these data cannot be found in any other

15     statistics.

16        Q.   Very well, Professor.  I'm not going to go through all the other

17     tables, they pertain to the other areas that you described.  I'm going to

18     move on to the next chapter in your paper.  That is chapter number 4.  It

19     starts with paragraph 142 and you called it "Expelled Persons, Refugees,

20     Displaced Persons, Households, and Holding Centres in Republika Srpska."

21             Professor, the basic question is:  What is the source of the

22     information you refer to in this chapter?  What was the source?

23        A.   I mention this and I formulate the heading in this way because I

24     took this from official sources.  My basic source which is referred to

25     several times is the Census of Refugees and Displaced Persons in

Page 20553

 1     Republika Srpska in 1996.  It was the Ministry for Refugees and Displaced

 2     Persons that was in charge of the process, and it says here

 3     "Sarajevo 1996."  Perhaps someone doesn't understand why it says

 4     Sarajevo.  It is due to the fact that the constitution of

 5     Republika Srpska says to this day that the capital is Sarajevo.  So that

 6     is the basic source of information and we call it the primary source of

 7     information.

 8             Also secondary sources were used, namely books by certain

 9     authors.  That is what I refer to in my footnotes, and you can see that.

10     The most comprehensive book in relation to this chapter is,

11     Spiric, Marijanac, "The Population of Republika Srpska," which was

12     published by the faculty of economy in Banja Luka in 1999.  I refer to

13     these explanations specifically, along with each and every table, and I

14     refer to the actual pages used, and of course I copied that from these

15     textbooks so that I can perhaps use that here as well.  This is

16     officially-published data, and I accept them as such in number 4 within

17     this chapter.

18             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours, please, I thought the witness

19     said that he got the information from a book that was written, then later

20     he said it comes from officially-published data.  I suggest that it's a

21     relevant inquiry to find out where it comes from, a book or

22     officially-published data.

23             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] If we did not understand each other

24     properly, let me say that the information comes from the primary source,

25     namely the Census of Refugees and Displaced Persons in Republika Srpska

Page 20554

 1     in 1996.  The book uses those data only.  I took them over from the book

 2     and I make a correct reference to that in the footnotes.  Underneath the

 3     tables I refer to the primary source, and in the footnote I say where I

 4     took the data from.

 5             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

 6        Q.   Professor, at any rate, the source, the primary source, is the

 7     census?

 8        A.   The book was a secondary source for me, a book that referred to

 9     the data from there.  The most important thing is that the data is

10     primary data.

11        Q.   All right.  Professor, paragraph 144.  We go back to the figure

12     of 2 million persons who were moved, as you had put it, from

13     Bosnia-Herzegovina, and this pertains to all three main ethnic groups;

14     right?

15        A.   That's right.

16        Q.   And now here you have the actual data involved, how many Serbs,

17     Croats, Muslims were moved from their places of residence; right?

18        A.   Yes.

19        Q.   This information comes from the census; right?

20        A.   Yes.

21        Q.   However, there is a particular piece of information that confused

22     me and I believe that we should therefore try to clarify it now.  If we

23     move on to your next chapter, this starts with paragraph 165.

24             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Could we please have paragraph 165

25     on our screens now.  Could we also zoom in on that paragraph.  Let's just

Page 20555

 1     wait for the Serbian version as well.  Yes.

 2        Q.   Professor, this confused me, and I therefore think that you

 3     should explain this.  In paragraph 144 you talk about 2 million people

 4     from Bosnia-Herzegovina who were moved, and then in paragraph 165 you

 5     refer to the same figure, 2 million persons fled or were expelled and

 6     displaced from the former Yugoslav republics, all of them, Slovenia,

 7     Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Macedonia.  From a linguistic point

 8     of view, one when reads this one gets the impression that the same figure

 9     is used for two different areas.  Or perhaps the mistake is mine.  Could

10     you please explain what the 2 million Bosnia-Herzegovina pertains to and

11     what this other 2 million pertains to from all the republics of the

12     former Yugoslavia?  Could you please start from paragraph 144 and tell us

13     what that means directly, that 2 million.

14        A.   Yes, that is the impression that one gains.  Since I took these

15     data over, I interpret them in the following way:  In paragraph 144,

16     there's a reference to 2 million people within Bosnia-Herzegovina who

17     belong to this category of expelled persons, refugees, and displaced

18     persons.  That is not in dispute.  Explicit figures are provided here for

19     all three ethnic groups.  My interpretation of paragraph 165 is that in

20     the territory of the former Yugoslavia, within that area, about 2 million

21     people were on the move, not taking into account all of those who left

22     the then Yugoslavia.  Why?  Because it is evident that if it was only

23     2 million in Bosnia-Herzegovina, then if you look at the entire territory

24     of the former Yugoslavia, then the overall number of people who were on

25     the move is much bigger, people who moved from their places of residence.

Page 20556

 1     That is how these two paragraphs can be interpreted.

 2             Within the Yugoslav republics, 2 million people moved, and let's

 3     add to that something that is not written here: There are people who left

 4     the area altogether and therefore the figure exceeds 2 million, because

 5     only Bosnia-Herzegovina had these 2 million people who were being

 6     transferred in different ways.  That would be my interpretation of the

 7     data involved, although it is not my data initially.

 8        Q.   All right.  We have come to this chapter number 5, "Expelled

 9     Persons, Refugees, and Displaced Persons from Bosnia-Herzegovina in

10     Serbia and Montenegro."  Professor, you are already used to the first

11     question; the source of information for what you state in this chapter?

12        A.   Since this is the area of another state now, that is to say, the

13     then State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, underneath every table the

14     primary source is referred to, that is to say, the census of refugees and

15     other war-affected persons in the FR Yugoslavia.  This was compiled in

16     1996 by the UNHCR, that is referred to here, and the commissariat of the

17     Republic of Serbia.  And I took this over from the aforementioned book as

18     a secondary source of information.  So the methodology is the same as in

19     the previous case of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

20             At the time, those were the only relevant institutions that used

21     a certain methodology to register refugees and other war-affected

22     persons, and we used those data as the most relevant at the time.

23        Q.   Professor, what about that area?  Did members of all the ethnic

24     groups of Bosnia-Herzegovina move into that area?

25        A.   We can see from these tables that, yes, that was indeed the case;

Page 20557

 1     however, the numbers involved were different.  You see here, inside these

 2     tables, that it was Serbs, Croats, Muslims, Montenegrins, Yugoslavs,

 3     others, as they had declared themselves at the time.  So members of all

 4     three ethnic groups in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Yugoslavs and others who

 5     declared themselves that way in the last census in Bosnia-Herzegovina in

 6     1991 and the other Yugoslav republics at the time.  So, yes, and it is

 7     quite evident from these statistics.

 8        Q.   Professor, the results of this census that you referred to, these

 9     displaced persons and refugees, again you worked on this table, if I'm

10     not mistaken, that is, Annex B of your paper.  In the Serbian version it

11     starts on page 156.  In English, if I'm not mistaken, it is 157.  So

12     could you please find it, and perhaps we can hear your comments on what

13     you had written there.

14             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] So can we please look at the next

15     page both in English and in Serbian.  It starts with Banja Luka.  The

16     next page, please.  Again we have the subheading, so we need the next

17     page with the table.

18        Q.   Professor, could you please help us with this now.  Can you help

19     us find our way here.  Let us take Banja Luka, and perhaps Bijeljina as

20     well, as examples.  As we see from the heading, this information pertains

21     to municipalities of present residents and municipalities of former

22     residents; right?

23        A.   That's right.

24        Q.   Can you please tell us what this means for Banja Luka, this

25     number up here that says "total" in bold?  132.298, can you see it now?

Page 20558

 1        A.   Yes.

 2        Q.   What does that number mean?

 3        A.   I feel it is necessary to explain these tables because they are

 4     not all that simple.  The municipalities of present residents are

 5     referred to in bold in the middle of the page.  For example, Banja Luka,

 6     where certain persons moved in.  Whereas municipalities of former

 7     residents are referred to underneath this number individually of

 8     22.000 et cetera.  A total of 132.298 is a figure that pertains to all of

 9     Republika Srpska, but that is the number of households that had moved,

10     not of inhabitants.

11             As for individual inhabitants, the number is about 450.000.  So

12     then these households are further differentiated within individual

13     municipalities from which these people had moved.  We are going to use

14     the example of the municipality of Banja LukaBanja Luka is the

15     municipality where, according to the census of 1996, 22.582 households

16     moved in from other municipalities.  I repeat, this is the number of

17     households, not inhabitants.  Multiply it by an average of four and then

18     you're going to get the actual number of individual inhabitants.  Then

19     what follows are municipalities from which people moved into Banja Luka.

20             You have an entire spectrum here, from Bileca all the way to

21     Slavonia, that is to say, the area of Croatia and so on.  For example,

22     Bileca 2 means two households from Bileca moved to Banja Luka.  For

23     example, Bugojno, 431.  It is quite evident from these figures that the

24     population moved into these municipalities from the Federation of

25     Bosnia-Herzegovina or from neighbouring Croatia where there were war

Page 20559

 1     processes in the previous period as well.  Then we see the municipality

 2     of Bijeljina and so on and so forth.

 3             So could this information please be reliably interpreted, if I

 4     have explained this properly.  So this is a description of households,

 5     not actual individuals who were displaced persons.  According to the

 6     Census of Displaced Persons and Refugees in Republika Srpska in 1996,

 7     that involved a figure of over one-third of its total population at the

 8     time.

 9             Counsel, if I was clear enough, that is the explanation I have to

10     provide.  If it is not clear, I stand ready to provide further

11     explanations.

12             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Sir, could you just explain the reason why you

13     chose to focus on the number of households rather than taking the number

14     of physical persons.

15             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Okay.  The reason is that when a

16     census of refugees and displaced persons was conducted, those who were

17     provided with temporary accommodation in these municipalities,

18     accommodation was provided for households as units rather than for

19     individual inhabitants regardless of whether they were from one in the

20     same household or family, or just individuals.

21             Of course, I could have added alongside this data the data that

22     pertains to the individual number of refugees and displaced persons, but

23     the point here was to show how households were moved away because they

24     are wholes, they were socio-economic wholes, and were in this period

25     temporarily accommodated in some other areas outside of their earlier

Page 20560

 1     places of residence.  This was the reason why I decided to present the

 2     data in this manner.  But the data on the number of individually

 3     displaced persons is available and it can be presented easily.

 4             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Thank you.

 5             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

 6        Q.   Professor, this table -- I'm sorry, one of the Judges has a

 7     question.

 8             JUDGE DELVOIE:  Professor, it's just to understand.  All those

 9     places where the people came from to move into Banja Luka, they are more

10     or less alphabetically ordered, right, but then at page 75 a new

11     alphabetical order starts.  Could you explain that?  It's from Bileca to

12     Zivinice, if I pronounce that well --

13             THE WITNESS:  Mm-hm.

14             JUDGE DELVOIE: -- and then the alphabet starts again, from

15     Beli Manastir to Zadar.  I mean, what's ...

16             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] All right.  The alphabetical order

17     was not taken into account here because, as you can see, Sanski Most

18     precedes Ilijas, and in alphabet I is always before S, so this was not a

19     priority when listing it, though it could be a rule that alphabetical

20     order should be applied.

21             JUDGE DELVOIE:  What did you apply then?  Or is it just random?

22             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Well, one could not say literally

23     random because that would mean that data was imaginary, but from the

24     sources of information and secondary sources which are listed, they are

25     listed in this way, without a rule having to do with alphabetical order

Page 20561

 1     or any other principles.  Let me call it arbitrary, but correct, citing.

 2             JUDGE DELVOIE:  Okay.  Thank you.

 3             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

 4        Q.   Professor, your table is inverted in part and begins with

 5     Banja Luka once again but now municipalities of former residents are

 6     first.  I will just mention the page where it begins: It's 1D06-2346.

 7             JUDGE DELVOIE:  Mr. Cvijetic, before leaving this one, can I ask

 8     one more question.

 9             Professor --

10             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Go ahead.

11             JUDGE DELVOIE: -- there are 287 households, municipality of

12     present residence Banja Luka and municipality of former residence

13     Banja Luka.  Does that mean that they moved within the municipality?

14             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I'm just looking for the

15     subheadings to see why this is repeated.

16             JUDGE DELVOIE:  The first line.

17             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Forty-six; is that what you have in

18     mind?  Page number 46?

19             JUDGE DELVOIE:  Seventy-four, in the English version.

20             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

21        Q.   Professor, it's on the first page you dealt with.  Judge Delvoie

22     means --

23        A.   Zero six; right?

24        Q.   Yes, yes, correct.  And in the third column Judge Delvoie pointed

25     your attention to Banja Luka where it says 287.

Page 20562

 1        A.   I understand.  These were movements within the borders of the

 2     municipality or the town of Banja Luka.  Within it.  So from one

 3     unidentified settlement, they would move to a different settlement which

 4     is also part of Banja Luka.  That also happened as part of the migration,

 5     so it shouldn't be confusing or bring into doubt the exact data provided.

 6             JUDGE DELVOIE:  Thank you very much.

 7             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

 8        Q.   Professor, let me just see whether we have the second part of the

 9     table on the screen.  It begins with Banja Luka once again.

10        A.   It's 46.

11        Q.   1D06-2346.  And we see a change here, the municipality of former

12     residences -- first, have you found the page?

13        A.   Yes.

14        Q.   And then the next, which is listed as the municipality of present

15     residence.  Can you please explain what this data mean.

16        A.   Professionally speaking, it means inversion.  Okay?

17        Q.   Well, please explain in more detail.

18        A.   It means that the area of Banja Luka --

19             MR. Di FAZIO:  Page 111, if Your Honours please, you'll find it

20     in English.  111.

21             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Thank you, Mr. Di Fazio.  I did

22     not say that and it was my omission, but we have the correct page on the

23     screen.

24        Q.   Professor, I think you may continue now.

25        A.   Yes.  It's the so-called inverted process which we call a

Page 20563

 1     counter-tendency.  Households are moving in the opposite direction for

 2     certain reasons, as mentioned here, though I would keep reservation about

 3     certain information because I took it over from somewhere else.  I'm not

 4     sure if it's well represented in the tables.  But essentially I think

 5     it's the inverted process of population leaving or moving in, and the

 6     assumption is that they are from other ethnic groups.  But the ethnicity

 7     is not mentioned here but I'm persuaded that this is what that's all

 8     about.

 9        Q.   All right.  Professor, at the bottom of this table and the

10     previous one, as I think Judge Delvoie noticed, one can see that there

11     are many municipalities from the territory of the Republic of Croatia as

12     municipalities of former residence, and these persons are then placed in

13     the municipalities of present residence in Republika Srpska.  Can you

14     please explain this process for us.

15        A.   It is well known that there was forced migration in the territory

16     of Republic of Croatia, even earlier than before this began in the

17     territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, because there was

18     armed conflict there as well.  The majority of the Serbian population

19     that inhabited certain areas of Croatia, and they are listed here, areas

20     such as Slavonia or Slavonska Pozega or Podravska Slatina, and some

21     maritime towns close to the Lika region in Croatia, or even from Slovenia

22     where there were some conflicts even earlier, there was a wave of

23     refugees coming from there and most of them were Serbs moving into the

24     more ethnically homogenised areas in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  This is evident

25     from the data.  And let me add that presently there are tens of thousands

Page 20564

 1     of refugees who have moved into Bosnia-Herzegovina from Croatia and whose

 2     status has not been fully resolved yet, even though according to the

 3     international convention of 1951 they are under international protection,

 4     but there are still tens of thousands of such people living in the

 5     territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 6             The data has been included according to the census from 1996, but

 7     the numbers have changed since then, both in terms of the spatial

 8     division of the population and in terms of the numbers of people.

 9        Q.   Fine.  Professor, are there any data or assessments of the number

10     of people who, so to speak, have passed through the territory of

11     Bosnia-Herzegovina and only remained in certain places temporarily and

12     then moved on, for example, in the direction of Serbia or Sandzak and so

13     on?  Is such data available, or such estimates?

14        A.   Yes.  That is why after the war a census was conducted, in order

15     to determine the number of refugees and displaced persons.  And this was

16     done on several occasions because the status of these people kept

17     changing as well as their spatial distribution in the territory of

18     Bosnia-Herzegovina.

19             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, I have to object to any

20     moving into this subject of people who have moved through the territory

21     of Bosnia and Herzegovina.  There's not one jot of evidence in this

22     report detailing statistics or the sources of such statistics or the

23     methods of analysis of such statistics of people transiting through

24     Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Nothing.  And now we are going into it and we're

25     going to now, no doubt, get lots of pronouncements on statistics and

Page 20565

 1     estimates and so on, but it's not been covered in the report.  And

 2     furthermore, it's just simply not relevant to any of the issues in trial.

 3     But most of all, it just hasn't been covered in the report.  It's a whole

 4     new area.

 5             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] I will explain, Your Honours.  I

 6     partly agree with my learned friend, the Prosecutor, but the question has

 7     a foundation, namely the testimony of an expert witness is evidence.  Why

 8     am I asking him this?  The Prosecutor prejudges my question and it is

 9     this: Whether the temporary residence of these persons in an area

10     affected the movements of the local population.  This is what I wanted to

11     ask.  So the witness can answer both of my questions at one and the same

12     time.

13             MR. Di FAZIO:  The problem is -- the problem is we've got to have

14     some evidence or some statistics on temporary residence.  When was this

15     temporary residence, where was the temporary residence, what's the source

16     of the statistics for the temporary residence, is -- are those -- is that

17     material in these reports?  It's, I'm afraid, irrelevant and it's a bit

18     glib to say that just because the witness is an expert he can give us

19     those statistics.

20             JUDGE HALL:  Which, Mr. Cvijetic, the basis, the fundamental

21     point of the objection is that the witness is wandering outside of his

22     report.  So on what basis is the Chamber being invited to receive this

23     new evidence which, as Mr. Di Fazio also says, has no -- being outside

24     the report, there's no foundation for it?

25             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honours, I did not have the

Page 20566

 1     intention to elaborate this issue in detail.  The essence is in just one

 2     question.  We do not have to deal with data, even though the expert

 3     witness began to talk about census and lists of such persons.  But let us

 4     not allow him to present this data because he did not include that in the

 5     report.  Let me just phrase the question like this:

 6        Q.   Did these persons by their temporary residence change the ethnic

 7     composition of certain places in which they resided for a time and did

 8     this have an impact on the general movements of the population in

 9     Bosnia-Herzegovina?

10        A.   All right.  I think I will stick to the numbers listed from the

11     census from which one can see that the movements of the population from

12     the territory of Croatia to the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina, mostly

13     those that are predominantly populated by Serbs, did affect temporarily

14     the change of the ethnic makeup of the population, because the majority

15     of these refugees and displaced persons went in the direction of the then

16     Federal Republic of Yugoslavia or the so-called third countries, which

17     was later on confirmed by data from the census conducted in 2000.  The

18     number was much reduced.  I already said that the number was several tens

19     of thousands of refugees who left the territory of Croatia and then moved

20     into the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina but they mostly moved on to the

21     territory covered by Republika Srpska.  That is the essence of the data.

22        Q.   Before I move to the last subject with which I will finish the

23     examination of the witness today, which I will leave for after the break,

24     just answer a couple of questions, Professor, that have to do with the

25     issue of the return of population from these categories.

Page 20567

 1             Are there any serious studies available at the moment that deal

 2     with this subject, and is there any data available about the return of

 3     these persons to the areas from which they moved out?  Who is doing this

 4     sort of research, is there any data available, and where can the data be

 5     found?  Just briefly so that we can finish off this subject.

 6        A.   Just to avoid any confusion, I did not elaborate this data in my

 7     report but I am willing to state them precisely and to answer your

 8     question.

 9             Of course, certain institutions at the level of

10     Bosnia-Herzegovina and its entities have continuously kept records, as I

11     think they may most precisely be called, about these persons.  It is

12     obvious that very often we do not conduct a census because a census is a

13     more comprehensive phenomenon.

14             At this moment I can say that in the territory of

15     Bosnia-Herzegovina we have a much more favourable picture in terms of

16     return of refugees and displaced persons who have returned to the whole

17     territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  527.000 persons still remain outside

18     the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  This is the category of refugees

19     who enjoy international protection according to the convention from 1951

20     and the protocol from 1967.  On the other hand, there is another 450.000

21     displaced persons, so there within the borders of Bosnia-Herzegovina, and

22     this is close to 1 million people.  That means that earlier more than

23     1 million people returned either from outside the borders or from -- or

24     within Bosnia-Herzegovina to their former places of residence.  This is

25     official information from UNHCR, the Ministry for Human Rights of

Page 20568

 1     Refugees of Bosnia-Herzegovina, and the entities' statistical bureaus or

 2     institutions such as the ministries for refugees and displaced persons.

 3     And I have the data before me and if necessary we can mention exact

 4     numbers, though I should emphasise that the data relates to 2006 as the

 5     last year listed.

 6             What I know from my own research, the data is still subject to

 7     change and the situation is even more favourable now, as the number of

 8     refugees and displaced persons has been further reduced.  I can elaborate

 9     that on the example of both entities if need be.

10             All in all, the process is on-going, and I'm due to emphasise

11     that in the legal sense each refugee or displaced person in the territory

12     of Republika Srpska is now able to access their property.  This has been

13     completed and now it is up to each person to choose his or her residence,

14     to choose where he or she would live.  As for myself, even though I have

15     managed to recover my property, I remained residing in another place.

16        Q.   I have told you which municipalities are mentioned in the

17     indictment.  Do you have the same data for those municipalities,

18     Prijedor, Sanski Most, Banja Luka, et cetera?

19        A.   I can't find that piece of paper but I can use a map.  Prijedor,

20     territorially speaking, belongs to Republika Srpska.  The return of the

21     population to that municipality has occurred to a large degree.  That

22     goes especially for Kozarac, where before the war Muslims were dominant

23     population.

24        Q.   Professor, you gave me the paper in question during the

25     preparation for the testimony, and I can maybe give it to you, through

Page 20569

 1     the usher, if you can use it.

 2        A.   Yes, I could use it.

 3             MR. Di FAZIO:  I don't think I've seen this paper.  And if

 4     Your Honours please, perhaps I should object to this evidence.  It's -- I

 5     don't follow the relevance of showing returns to these particular

 6     municipalities.  It may be that people have returned to Prijedor or

 7     Sanski Most --

 8             JUDGE HALL:  May I suggest, Mr. Di Fazio, that before you

 9     formulate your objection, you look at the piece of paper?

10             MR. Di FAZIO:  Yes.  Yes, thank you, Your Honour.  That's a good

11     suggestion.  I'll adopt it.  Thank you.

12             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

13        Q.   Can you tell me first whether this is the document that you have

14     in mind?  Maybe I made a mistake.  If it isn't, maybe you could give us

15     the numbers based on your memory.

16        A.   May I?

17             MR. Di FAZIO:  Well, I've seen the paper.  I think I maintain my

18     objection.  First of all, it's in B/C/S.  Although doing the best that I

19     can, it doesn't seem to include all the indictment municipalities as is

20     suggested.  And secondly, it seems to span the period 1991 to 2007, so I

21     don't know if the witness can give times of when people returned.  But

22     even if he were able to give times to when people returned, I assume he's

23     talking about later periods of time post-war; that's what I gather from

24     the evidence.  What's the relevance of it?  And that's the general

25     objection.  We could wrap up this topic now.

Page 20570

 1             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honour, I'm going to withdraw

 2     the paper, and my question is going to be of a principle character.

 3     Maybe the witness should answer the way that he began.  I would like him

 4     to tell us where this process was most pronounced among the

 5     municipalities listed in the indictment.

 6        Q.   So you do not have to give us any data; you can just speak

 7     globally.

 8        A.   All right.  For me, the relevance of these data is as follows:

 9     They show the total demographic capacities of those municipalities from

10     1991 to 2007.  That is the period covered by official estimates and data.

11     The essence of the message contained within the data is that those human

12     capacities are declining regardless of the fact that the war is now

13     finished.  The population continues to emigrate from Bosnia-Herzegovina.

14     That is one message.  The other message speaks about the change of the

15     ethnic structure of the current inhabitants in those municipalities.  The

16     data start with 1991, and for 2007 the boxes are empty because we do not

17     have official data for those local communes.  And I have based my

18     estimates on official estimates here.  Those estimates come from official

19     statistical institutions.

20             As far as the intensive return, the return is most intensive

21     precisely in large population centres such as Prijedor, Zvornik,

22     Bijeljina, Banja Luka.  So these are the largest population centres in

23     the territory of Republika Srpska.  If you permit me to say, around

24     200.000 returnees came to the territory of Republika Srpska between the

25     end of the war and today.  We cannot establish exactly who returned when;

Page 20571

 1     however, we know that this comprises around 20 per cent of the total

 2     population of Republika Srpska.

 3             At the same time, in the Federation the same process is somewhat

 4     slower.  There, the Bosniak and Muslim population comprises 95 per cent

 5     of the total population.  There are only up to 4 per cent Serbs.  While

 6     according to 1991 census, there was 17.6 per cent of Serbs.  I have

 7     already explained that yesterday and I can elaborate it today if

 8     necessary.

 9             So we see that those movement are very complex, and I'm

10     continuously trying to say that the ethnic homogenisation is still going

11     on in the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  This is one of my key

12     findings, and this process is still on-going.  All the data mentioned

13     confirm this conclusion.

14             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

15        Q.   Professor, before we go for a break, let me ask my last question

16     before the break.  We've just seen the tables pertaining to Banja Luka,

17     Bijeljina, et cetera containing the data about the number of households,

18     persons who chose Bijeljina in Republika Srpska as their permanent

19     residence.  Now, those data pertain to 1996; could you tell me whether

20     the situation in 1996 is identical to the situation today and what kind

21     of process are we facing here in terms of return of the population and

22     moving back?

23        A.   It is not identical in terms of the change of status of displaced

24     persons.  At the time, those people had a status of displaced person.  In

25     the meantime, many of them have resolved the issue of their permanent

Page 20572

 1     residence.  The fact that testifies to this is also that Banja Luka and

 2     Bijeljina have more inhabitants than they had in 1991.  All other

 3     municipalities, both in the Federation and Republika Srpska, have less

 4     inhabitants.  Those are the demographic losses that we mentioned earlier.

 5     However, many persons lost the status of displaced person, and that's why

 6     the number went down.  So they solved their situations by various means

 7     and now they reside outside the places of the permanent residence in

 8     1992.

 9        Q.   I want to know one thing specifically, and that is whether the

10     number of people arriving is growing compared to 1996, is it still

11     growing today?  This ethnic homogenisation that you mentioned, is it

12     still on the increase and whether those people are still on the move?

13     Are Serbs arriving to Banja Luka and Bijeljina even today?

14        A.   Yes.  We have proofs of that, the data collected by the federal

15     statistical agency of the BiH as well as the statistical agency of

16     Republika Srpska.  They published yearly the data on internal migration,

17     and you can clearly see from that the fact that the population is moving

18     still today.  And only Republika Srpska has a positive migration count.

19     So in order to conclude:  The process of ethnic territorial

20     homogenisation within Bosnia-Herzegovina is still going on, and the

21     homogenisation of ethnic territories is still going on.

22        Q.   Thank you.

23             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honour, I have only one more

24     topic for this witness.  I think that I'm going to conclude my

25     examination-in-chief today, and I would ask maybe five minutes more for

Page 20573

 1     the break so that we can have a proper rest and then we can finish the

 2     examination today.

 3             JUDGE HALL:  So we would reconvene at 12.25.

 4                           [The witness stands down]

 5                           --- Recess taken at 11.59 a.m.

 6                           --- On resuming at 12.28 p.m.

 7                           [The witness takes the stand]

 8             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Thank you, Your Honour.

 9        Q.   Professor Pasalic, we are going to conclude this

10     examination-in-chief with the last topic.  This is the topic that we

11     requested you to comment on.  We requested you to comment the expert

12     report compiled by the team of experts led by Ewa Tabeau as well as

13     others.  Your comments begin at paragraph 109, so you should turn to the

14     relevant page now.

15             Have you found it?

16        A.   Yes.

17        Q.   I'm not going to ask you to retell what you wrote in the report.

18     During the examination-in-chief --

19             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, unless I've missed -- I

20     just think it's a mistake: I think the commentary actually begins at --

21     towards the end of the report.  It's not paragraph 109.  I think it's ...

22     sorry, just give me a moment.

23             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] 199.  199.

24             MR. Di FAZIO:  Yes, thank you.

25             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

Page 20574

 1        Q.   Have you found it?

 2        A.   Yes.

 3        Q.   During my examination-in-chief, you referred several times to

 4     this part of the report and you mentioned some of your criticisms.

 5     However, here in this part of the report you present your comments on the

 6     report submitted by the Prosecution expert.  Could you now recapitulate

 7     and summarise for the Trial Chamber your basic criticisms of the study

 8     compiled by Ms. Tabeau, methodologically speaking.  And, of course, you

 9     do not need to repeat things that are already in the report, but just

10     give us a brief overview.

11             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, we should know which of

12     the three reports we're dealing with here or, if not, whether the

13     comments apply equally to all three and whether the comments are intended

14     to apply equally to all three.

15             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honour, all three reports

16     were admitted into evidence in this case.  In his introduction, the

17     expert refers to all three reports, and my question was of a general

18     nature.  I am referring to the methodology of work, so the comments

19     should apply to all three experts, but I think that our expert will be in

20     a position to explain this in a better way than me.

21        Q.   Professor, have you heard?

22        A.   Yes, I have, but I'm waiting.

23             JUDGE HALL:  Sorry, please continue.

24             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] So these are my comments or, to put

25     it more precisely, a critical commentary on the reports that have been

Page 20575

 1     submitted in a number of cases by Ms. Tabeau and other associates which

 2     are based on certain facts which, if you permit me, I intend to interpret

 3     here as well as present some general conclusions.  I think that it is

 4     very important to show on specific examples how some conclusions were

 5     erroneous and how some data were miscalculated.  But I think that it will

 6     be most useful if I start from general conclusions and then move on to

 7     specific questions.

 8             The methodological approach adopted in the report of Ms. Tabeau

 9     and associates is mainly based on statistical and mathematical methods,

10     that is, the law of numbers.  This is insufficient for a research of such

11     complexity.  After all, such a research is based on calculations by way

12     of numbers.  There is a maxime in the statistical science saying that the

13     number will tell you only as much as the person who plays with it want

14     you to know.

15             What is missing from these reports are different methodological

16     approaches.  First of all, the reports lack a more intensive empirical

17     research.  It is understandable to a certain degree because the authors

18     of the reports could not go into the field at the relevant time.  And to

19     be quite honest, this is the advantage of my report because I was there

20     in the relevant area while certain acts were occurring, acts that I have

21     attempted to include in my report by way of a professional and scientific

22     elaboration.

23             So besides the fact that this report does not have a proper

24     methodological approach, it is quite clear that the work is not based on

25     proper sources of data.  There are objective and subjective reasons for

Page 20576

 1     that.  The only source of data that cannot be disputed is the population

 2     census of 1991, but I have to emphasise in relation to that one thing: We

 3     in Bosnia and Herzegovina never had data that were officially published

 4     and comprehensively processed.  I mean, here, the data pertaining to the

 5     1991 census.  They were published only by the Federal Statistics Bureau,

 6     and before that only the ethnic composition and some other data were

 7     published by the Croatian State Statistical Institute in Zagreb.  All

 8     this means, that the calculation of some important parameters in this

 9     report was based on estimates, and these estimates are very flexible.

10     These estimates are based on an unreliable database.

11             There are various registers of institutions whose main line of

12     business is not the collection of demographical data.  They compile their

13     registers for their own use.  I noticed several similar sources.  Even

14     the authors of the reports themselves say for some of the sources that

15     they are unreliable and that they are based on some estimates that do not

16     reflect the reality.  So these are some of the comments.

17             Furthermore, there is the question of the consistency of reports

18     on some of the victims, such as ethnic group.  And another very important

19     question, status of soldier or civilian.  I was not able to find in the

20     reports the methodology which would start from the general situation at

21     the beginning of the war and then the subdivision into civilians and

22     soldiers, and yet the reports speak about the civilian and military

23     casualties.  It is very difficult to accept these data as relevant if you

24     do not know the general overview of a phenomenon in question.

25             Why am I saying that?  The military civilian status has often

Page 20577

 1     been manipulated for some subjective reasons.  For instance, people were

 2     able to gain certain advantages because they were registered as soldiers.

 3     Or for instance, a family might gain some advantage if they register a

 4     victim as a soldier although such a victim was not actually a soldier.

 5     So the authors had to be more precise about who belonged to the military.

 6     It was only the officers, the people at the front line, and the people

 7     who are currently on furlough or hospitalised.  Everybody else is,

 8     according to international standards, civilians.  So such a

 9     classification is something that I cannot find in the reports, because it

10     is the only thing that would enable me to estimate the accuracy of the

11     data.

12             Further on, you can see that the reports contain some databases

13     that are more complete and some that are less complete.  In cases where

14     we have more complete databases, we can obtain a more reliable result.

15     As I have already said, the reliability of the sources of data is

16     something that is not really very reliable for these reports.  If you

17     look at the registers pertaining to the military or municipalities or

18     other civilian institutions, you will see that these are the registers

19     that do not have the appropriate statistical forms.  And numbers are very

20     easy things to manipulate.

21             Further on, I was not able to conclude that the reports used

22     standardised documents in order to prove, by use of the standardised

23     document, how data on number of casualties were collected or how data on

24     number of expelled persons were collected.  I have already mentioned

25     standardised data.

Page 20578

 1             It is my assessment that there are no such standardised data in

 2     these documents, and that can lead to a deformed picture about a certain

 3     fact.  So in my studies I used exclusively standardised documents,

 4     uniformed forms issued by certain institutions, containing certain

 5     questions that pertain to each and every individual.

 6             What else is important here?  Although the authors used various

 7     but quite unreliable sources of data, they could have used some other

 8     documents for such a study, especially bearing in mind that the creation

 9     of those reports begin some five years after the war.  As far as I was

10     able to ascertain, Ms. Tabeau has been engaged in this research since

11     2000.  So it was possible to use other sources of data.

12             Why am I saying this?  I will quote Ms. Tabeau herself, which I

13     already did.  In giving a similar professional opinion about a similar

14     research by the documentation centre in Sarajevo, she says, and I quote:

15             "That the study should not contain a small number of the sources

16     of data, that the sources have to be different in order to avoid biased

17     statistics, and in order to create a historical and accurate picture."

18             And I can maybe add one more thing:  We don't know whether they

19     managed to eliminate duplicates.  Because there were manipulations, a

20     certain person could have been registered both as a soldier and a

21     civilian for purely subjective reasons such as gaining certain material

22     advantages.  I call that a less competent record-keeping, and that is

23     what was used in this paper.

24             Extensive sources were used, as they're called, as well as the

25     database of deceased persons in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina from

Page 20579

 1     1992 to 1995.  I claim that at that point in time such data was not kept

 2     in order either in the Federation or in Republika Srpska.  Why am I

 3     saying that?  If we look at the statistical yearbooks in

 4     Bosnia-Herzegovina then if we look at the database, you do not have this

 5     information.  There are hyphens there as regards the number of deceased

 6     persons as a result of war operations directly or indirectly.  That

 7     database is only regulated from 1996 onwards, and that is how we use the

 8     data involved in our own scientific research.

 9             The ICRC list of missing persons was used, as it is referred to.

10     That is a question that not very much light has been shed on in

11     Bosnia-Herzegovina because there are still quite a few persons who are

12     considered to be missing and whose fate is still unknown.  Then exhumed

13     and unidentified persons; records of such persons are not properly kept

14     in Bosnia-Herzegovina to this day, although there is a joint institute

15     that deals with the matter.  There are quite a few questions that are

16     still unresolved.

17             Then there are certain lists that were compiled by NGOs, rather

18     unreliable lists because in that period of time these organisations did

19     not have the proper professional and other capacities to provide reliable

20     data.  Every one of the mentioned sources in these reports, as an answer

21     is sought to specific questions, has to provide firm, reliable data, and

22     I think that that is one of the shortcomings here.

23             As concerns the number of victims in war - this is something I

24     particularly wish to highlight - to this day there is not a single source

25     in Bosnia-Herzegovina or, rather, not a single institution in

Page 20580

 1     Bosnia-Herzegovina that came to a final figure.  I think that in the

 2     foreseeable future that will remain difficult.  However, let us state

 3     objectively the research of Ms. Tabeau and her co-workers and the

 4     research of the Information Documentation Centre in Sarajevo dealt with

 5     this subject matter in the most comprehensive manner.  As you know, the

 6     number of -- the total number of victims in Bosnia-Herzegovina which was

 7     published in the book "War in Figures," it is 104.732.  And then there is

 8     the figure of 98.000, as far as children are concerned.  I don't think

 9     that this can be the final figure.  I don't know what the figure may be.

10     I know it is not less.  I know that it may only be more.  However, this

11     refutes the exaggerated figures of 200- or 300.000 deceased persons in

12     the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

13             However, within all of these figures that were presented there is

14     quite a bit of concrete evidence as to the structure of victims according

15     to ethnic affiliation is wrong or insufficient [as interpreted].  I

16     specifically point that out in papers for the Information and

17     Documentation Centre.  I think that that can be proven in this paper as

18     well.

19             So let us conclude these general remarks.  Any paper that deals

20     with this subject, if proper scientific methods are used, valid sources

21     of information, and so on, is very useful.  But at this point in time we

22     have not come to final or exact figures yet.  I can say that for my own

23     papers too, although I did not deal with the total number of victims

24     because I did not have the individual capacity to do so.  But there is

25     another mosaic that I put together of demographic changes in the

Page 20581

 1     territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina in the period from 1992 to 1995, and that

 2     may be complementary to these reports.  Along with all these

 3     improvements, in the foreseeable future perhaps we may come it a more

 4     objective and more realistic report that pertains to the entire territory

 5     of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 6             I would like to conclude on this note, but I would like to ask

 7     that I later be allowed to give some concrete examples to show how some

 8     things were wrongly calculated and done in this report that I am

 9     providing a critical review of.

10        Q.   Professor, I'm giving you that chance right away.  Choose one or

11     two examples but not too many because --

12             JUDGE DELVOIE:  If you allow me, there's some clarification I

13     would like to ask the witness.

14             Professor, you said the total number of -- in the transcript:

15             "... the total number of victims in Bosnia-Herzegovina which was

16     published in the book 'War in Figures,' it is 104.732."

17             And then the transcript says:

18             "And then there is the figure of 98.000, as far as children are

19     concerned."

20             Is that correct?

21             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] No.  I don't know what the

22     interpretation was, but it is IDC research.  Those are their results.

23     And IDC is headed by Mirsad Tokaca.

24             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honours, when it is

25     pronounced in our language, that particular abbreviation "IDC," it sounds

Page 20582

 1     like the word for "children" phonetically.

 2             JUDGE DELVOIE:  So the figure for 98.000 is the IDC figure.

 3     Thank you.

 4             JUDGE HALL:  If I may, before you continue, Mr. Cvijetic.

 5             Professor, taking you back to the earlier part of your

 6     explication, why -- if I understood you correctly, you considered your

 7     report to have an advantage over the reports on which you adversely

 8     commented, the fact that you were able to make certain observations in

 9     the field which the authors of those reports were not able to.  Could you

10     explain why in your view this is considered an advantage?  And couldn't

11     the contrary be also argued that the -- that your own observations in the

12     field would have somehow muddied the water, as it were, in terms of the

13     objectivity of the data with which you were dealing?

14             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Very well.  I did not say that my

15     paper was better.  Perhaps you misunderstood what I said.  I said that it

16     was indispensable as a complementary paper to all such papers.  From

17     different sources and different papers, we get a clearer and more

18     objective picture.  This is to say that I did not underestimate this

19     comprehensive research that was carried out, but I said quite

20     specifically that there are quite a few shortcomings there.

21             If all papers of this nature are taken into account when such

22     serious extensive research is being carried out, then one gets a more

23     objective picture of all the developments involved.  I did not have the

24     sufficient capacity and logistics.  I didn't have anything that would

25     match what these researchers had, but I think it would be very useful,

Page 20583

 1     where I can prove this by way of facts, I refute some of the things

 2     stated by these authors.  That is what I'm trying to do now, and that is

 3     what I would like to tell you now so that you would see that this is

 4     indeed the case.

 5             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

 6        Q.   Professor, before you give some examples -- perhaps it would be a

 7     good idea actually if you would give your examples first, and then I'm

 8     going to put these questions to you that are based on Judge Hall's

 9     question, and I meant to leave that for the end anyway.  So if you have

10     such examples, could you please refer to them now so that I could

11     complete my examination by putting a question that is identical to the

12     question phrased by Judge Hall.

13        A.   All right.  I will start with paragraph 232, where I am referring

14     to the estimated data of the population in 1991 older than those born in

15     1980.  I claim that this is unrealistic and that that can be proven

16     easily.  In Ms. Tabeau's report, there are data for persons before --

17     born before 1980 and they are based on estimates, statistical and

18     mathematical estimates.  I illustrated this in paragraph 233, taking, as

19     an example, the municipality of Bijeljina, where Ms. Tabeau's report said

20     that as for Bijeljina the total population including all ethnicities in

21     1991 born before 1980 was 81.650.  That is data that she provides.

22             May I remind you that according to the 1991 census for Bijeljina,

23     the total population of Bijeljina was 96.988 and that can be seen in

24     paragraph 230.  Now, where is the error?  According to this, it turns out

25     that in the area of the municipality of Bijeljina, 84.18 per cent of the

Page 20584

 1     population was born in 1980 and older than that.  Those were persons who

 2     were of age and who had the right to vote, according to Ms. Tabeau's

 3     report.  I claim that that is incorrect.

 4             Such an unfavourable index of the age of the population of the

 5     Bijeljina municipality was not there in 1991, and this index is the

 6     relationship between the old and the young population.  Here we are

 7     talking about the young population, persons born after 1980.  Why am I

 8     saying that?  Why do you claim that?  I would like to direct you to

 9     paragraph 253.  What I provide here, on the basis of the 1991 census, is

10     the age structure of the population of the municipality of Bijeljina

11     according to age contingents.  It is evident that the share of the young

12     population considerably exceeds the mentioned 16 per cent that Ms. Tabeau

13     refers to.  For all municipalities, including Bijeljina, that share

14     ranges between 23 to 30 per cent.  It is impossible that in only seven or

15     eight years the population of Bijeljina aged, under quotation marks, so

16     quickly and that we got this oversized number of adults who are of age,

17     that is to say, those who were born before 1980.  That is what I showed

18     here in a few paragraphs.  Analogous to that would be conclusions for

19     other municipalities that are referred to.

20             Another important thing to say is that the highest share in the

21     young population up until the age of 18 was registered among the Muslim

22     population because they had a considerably higher natural birth-rate as

23     compared to the Serb and Croatian populations - I even referred to that

24     for BH as a whole - 14 per cent; Croats, 8 per cent; and Serbs,

25     7 per cent.  That unequivocally leads us to the conclusion that the

Page 20585

 1     Muslim population has a bigger share among the younger population rather

 2     than those born before 1980.  So may I say that this number of persons

 3     born in Bijeljina before 1980 is an overexaggerated one and then it sheds

 4     a different light on Ms. Tabeau's report.

 5             That is the first example that I wish to provide that involves

 6     erroneous calculation.

 7        Q.   Very well.  You've mentioned the rest in your paper.  Professor,

 8     I would now like to go back to the context of Judge Hall's question, and

 9     I want to place your paper within that context.  I wish to ask you the

10     following:  In a way, you chose your view of your paper on your own.  If

11     you were to observe your own paper with the same critical eyes, how would

12     you assess it and how would you view it in terms of its relevance for

13     this Trial Chamber as compared to Ms. Ewa Tabeau's paper?  This is my

14     specific question.

15             MR. Di FAZIO:  That's a question for Your Honours, not for the

16     witness, for Mr. Cvijetic, or myself.

17             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Well, I wish to put a specific

18     question now.

19        Q.   Is your paper a negation of Ms. Ewa Tabeau's paper or is it

20     something else?

21        A.   I try to be clear and yet objective.  All such papers are useful.

22     However, even the best of papers have to be subjected to a critical

23     review.  That is a rule in science.  That's way it is.  They're all

24     useful, but none of them can be considered to be final in terms of

25     painting a picture of certain developments.  Let me be perfectly honest

Page 20586

 1     and say that that is how I view my very own paper as well.  It has not

 2     given an answer to many questions, but it did deal with some questions in

 3     a more comprehensive way than these other papers did.  My advantage was

 4     the fact that I was a direct participant in all these events and that I

 5     have a better knowledge of the area involved and therefore it was easier

 6     for me in that way to get to some relevant results, though I appreciate

 7     what was presented in Ms. Tabeau's extensive research.  However, I

 8     repeat, that is only statistics and mathematics.

 9             From a distance, you cannot fully be familiar with a certain area

10     and certain developments only through mathematics and statistics,

11     especially if these developments do not always follow a certain logic.

12     Statisticians and mathematicians cannot deal with it in that way only,

13     and I showed you an example that indicates that we cannot take an average

14     when we look at, say, the population before -- born before 1980.  Every

15     local territory, every local region, has specific characteristics of its

16     own, as opposed to this average that we call Bosnia-Herzegovina.

17             And now I'm going to say that there is something that statistics

18     says, by way of a joke, in a way that statistics itself is the greatest

19     deception of all.  Or, rather, average in statistics is the greatest

20     deception of all.  That is to say that averages have to be well-founded,

21     because I tried to show that every territorial unit including the very

22     smallest one have very specific characteristics of their own and those

23     who know them best can give the most objective picture, of course if they

24     also applied well-known scientific methods.

25        Q.   Professor, and can you admit that Ms. Ewa Tabeau objectively had

Page 20587

 1     problems and was unable to achieve even better results?  Would you have

 2     met with the same problems if you had taken the same path as she did?

 3        A.   Of course.  I never discussed the subjectivity of Ms. Ewa Tabeau

 4     but, rather, objective problems and objective lack of knowledge of the

 5     area or lack of possibility to collect relevant data which would enable

 6     her to reach the results that she was striving for.  I have begun to

 7     study her very extensive book "The War in Figures," which treats the

 8     territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  No one has analysed it -- no one has

 9     provided this up until this time, but you cannot take it for granted.

10     Beginning with the smallest territorial units, it can be refuted.  But as

11     a conclusion, it doesn't mean that I denigrate her work or believe it to

12     be irrelevant.  It simply needs more works that would be added to it so

13     that we would have a more complete picture of the historical events in

14     Bosnia-Herzegovina.  This has to be placed in a historical context and

15     conclusions have to be based on facts.

16             As I said earlier, there are no compromises in science.

17     Bosnia-Herzegovina is full of compromises, but in politics, not in

18     science, however.  We are struggling to reach the truth regardless of

19     which ethnicity we are of.  I believe that I made a certain contribution

20     for a more comprehensive study of the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

21     Together with other works, mine should add additional data to the study.

22     Unfortunately there are few of such works, but that imposes on us an

23     obligation to strive to reach a more objective picture with exact facts.

24     When we will be able to do so, it is difficult to say at this moment.

25        Q.   On several occasions you said for your work that you wanted to

Page 20588

 1     produce a complementary study.  Do you mean that it should have been

 2     complementary of Ms. Ewa Tabeau's study, in the context of your last

 3     answer, that both works taken together should be worth more than each of

 4     them individually?

 5        A.   In the context of this research and this process, the answer is

 6     yes.  I would wish my report to be complementary to the other studies.

 7     And outside the context, I still believe that it would be complementary

 8     to some other studies.  I do not claim that I'm the only one who would be

 9     able to answer all questions in this field of study; that would go way

10     beyond my abilities.  But after a few years of research, I have presented

11     something that can be very useful in the series of these works, and it's

12     based on scientific research.  There are other researches which are not

13     based on scientific principles and that are not relevant for such a

14     significant project.

15        Q.   And finally, Professor, you have completed your report by a

16     chapter which is entitled "General Conclusions on the Migratory Movements

17     for Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Period Between 1992 and 1995."  There are

18     no paragraphs there.  Let me just say that the page is 1D06-2219.

19     1D06-2219.

20             Professor, it is page 71 in the pages you have.

21        A.   Okay.

22        Q.   I will not ask you to read it out.  Please finish your testimony

23     or at least the examination-in-chief by a general conclusion that the

24     Trial Chamber could draw from your report.  What is the substance of your

25     claims as presented in your report?

Page 20589

 1        A.   The substance of my claims, and I hope the evidence presented in

 2     the report, especially with a view to the period of 1992 to 1995, is

 3     ethnic territorial homogenisation and a simplification of the ethnic

 4     mosaic in some areas in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  That is one thing.

 5             Another conclusion that I wanted to point out in the conclusions,

 6     which follow as the summary of what you have presented throughout the

 7     report, is that not one report from this field can be focussed on just

 8     year of the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina because then unequivocally the

 9     picture you would get would be distorted.  I especially emphasise the

10     year 1992 because it presents a distorted picture of the entire situation

11     during the war, because the war was a process.  It was not a short-lived

12     phenomenon.  Therefore it is necessary to take into account the whole

13     period, and this is why my report is focused on the whole period between

14     1992 and 1995.

15             I wanted to point out that all the events that took place between

16     1992 and 1995 caused major demographic changes in Bosnia-Herzegovina,

17     just like any other war.  And in terms of the total number of population

18     of the composition in terms of age, sex, and ethnicity, the reduced

19     capacities, by which I mean the fertility, also the redistribution of the

20     population and also its eugenic or qualitative characteristics, if you

21     allow me, that was not a subject of the report because I had not done my

22     work in connection with that.  But I can just briefly say what the

23     demographic losses in Bosnia-Herzegovina have been during the war and

24     after it by using information from other institutions and also what I

25     collected during my own research.

Page 20590

 1             If we begin by saying that, conditionally speaking, the number of

 2     victims is 104.732, according to the information of Ewa Tabeau who

 3     studied this in more detail, then the greatest losses were those caused

 4     by the immigration -- emigration of population; I mean the demographic

 5     losses, because 527.000 people are outside of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 6     Fertility has been reduced due to the war, and on that basis

 7     Bosnia-Herzegovina has lost several tens of thousands of people.

 8             When I talk about demographic losses, just to be clear, I start

 9     from a premise what would have happened had there been no war.  There

10     would have been 800.000 inhabitants more in Bosnia-Herzegovina if the war

11     had not taken place, if no one had been killed, if no people had

12     emigrated, and if the birth-rate had not been reduced due to the war.

13             Of course there are other processes which contributed to that

14     which are obvious in Europe and in the world which is the more pronounced

15     aging of the population and the reduced fertility of the population.  All

16     these problems burdened demographic development of Bosnia-Herzegovina as

17     a whole today.

18             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Professor, thank you.

19             Your Honours, I have finished examination-in-chief of

20     Professor Pasalic.

21             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Krgovic, do you confirm your earlier position

22     that you have no questions of this witness?

23             MR. KRGOVIC:  Yes, Your Honour.  We don't have questions for this

24     witness.

25             JUDGE HALL:  Thank you.

Page 20591

 1             Mr. Di Fazio, are you ready to begin your cross-examination?

 2             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, it's quarter past.  Would

 3     you permit me to simply start on one discrete topic.  I say that because

 4     I had prepared my cross-examination on the basis of the reports and

 5     altered it to a certain extent on the basis of yesterday's evidence, but

 6     the evidence that's come in today may have the result of shortening my

 7     cross-examination and I hope to do that and ensure that I'm completely

 8     finished tomorrow.  That's my aim.

 9             But I need to rearrange it in order to achieve that.  So I would

10     like to be given that opportunity to do that.  I do have one short,

11     discrete topic that I could start on now, if you prefer me to do that.

12             JUDGE HALL:  Yes, please proceed.

13             MR. Di FAZIO:  Thank you.

14                           Cross-examination by Mr. Di Fazio:

15        Q.   I want to ask you, Professor Pasalic, about your past studies.  I

16     think you completed a teacher's college course in Travnik in 1970 and

17     then you went to the Academy for - never sure how to pronounce this -

18     Pedagogy in Slavonski Brod in 1973; is that right?

19        A.   Yes.

20        Q.   That's a teacher's college, isn't it, it's a place where teachers

21     are taught how to teach?

22        A.   Yes.

23        Q.   Okay.  Then you went to the mathematics faculty in Novi Sad and

24     there you obtained a bachelor of arts degree in geography; correct?

25        A.   Yes.  That's the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematic, not

Page 20592

 1     just mathematics, which has a separate department for geography.  And

 2     geography is a science about space.  So once you get your degree, you get

 3     a degree in geography.

 4        Q.   Thanks.  Sorry, geography.  And that was in 1979, that was your

 5     first academic qualification, a bachelor's; right?

 6        A.   Yes.  There was another diploma which I got from the

 7     Academy for Pedagogy, and that is a higher-education institution.

 8     Pedagogical academy is another institution of higher education where you

 9     get a diploma.

10        Q.   Thanks.  You started your post-graduate work in 1979 with a

11     master's degree in Belgrade and you defended that degree, which I take to

12     mean you obtained it, in 1983, in April of 1983; correct?

13        A.   Yes, at the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, and this

14     was my narrow discipline.

15        Q.   What was the title of your master's thesis?

16        A.   "Geographical Characteristics of the Territory of the Zavidovici

17     Municipality and its Environment."  The goal was to deal with the

18     population and protection of the environment.

19        Q.   Thanks.  So it's title was "Geographical Characteristics of the

20     Territory of Zavidovici and its Environment"; correct?

21        A.   Yes.  But I could elaborate on the contents of --

22        Q.   I don't want to elaborate any more; I just want to know the

23     title.

24             In your CV, you say that you got a master's in geography and

25     demography, and that's at page 76 of your CV.  Do you recall stating

Page 20593

 1     that?

 2        A.   Just bear with me for a moment.  I cannot at this moment find

 3     what you are referring to.

 4        Q.   Okay.  It's page 76 in the English.  It's your curriculum vitae

 5     and bibliography.  It says:

 6             "The institution University of Belgrade from November 1980 to

 7     April 1983 MA in geography, demography."

 8        A.   Very well.  MA in geography and the specific discipline was the

 9     graduate course which was entitled "Population," which does not bring in

10     doubt the topic of my work.  I was not obliged to study just the

11     population, but the more complex issue of the impact of population on the

12     environment and its protection, because it was in a way initiated by the

13     local community to deal with such subjects which I accepted.  And let me

14     also add that I received a golden plaque as the highest merit issued by

15     the local community for this work.

16        Q.   Yes, thank you.

17             MR. Di FAZIO:  Could we have 65 ter 281.  20081 up on the screen,

18     please.

19             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Can you repeat, please.

20             MR. Di FAZIO:

21        Q.   It's okay.  It will come up on the screen.  Don't worry.  I want

22     to put -- just lead you to an extract in your book.  It's at page 2 of

23     the English, and it has your photo on the top left-hand corner.  So I

24     think it's probably the second page in the book.  It's page 2 of the

25     English, which is a translation of an extract from your book, the

Page 20594

 1     introduction, so to speak.  That's it.

 2             There it says -- there it says in the first part of the book

 3     dealing with you and your background that you got your master's degree at

 4     the Faculty of Natural Sciences in Belgrade in 1983 in the field of

 5     tourism and protection of the environment.  Is that what your master's

 6     was about, tourism and protection of the environment, as stated in your

 7     own book?

 8        A.   Yes, this is what it says in the book.  It was an error made by

 9     the editor and the editorial board.  It is imprecise, even though during

10     studying population there was some interaction with the study of tourism.

11     But this is a secondary source which is not relevant for my CV and

12     bibliography.

13        Q.   But you see, the book, if you look at the table of contents which

14     is at page 6 of the English, and I'm afraid I don't know what it is in

15     the B/C/S, but it's about 3 or 4 pages on, page 6, you see that the book

16     is all about population demographics, migrations, demographic reality of

17     the Serbian people.  The entire book is all about demographics, so you

18     would have paid attention, wouldn't you, to accurately portraying your

19     qualifications in this book which is all about demographics?  It would

20     have been important to you to highlight your career -- sorry, your

21     academic qualifications in demographics in this book, but yet it says

22     that you've got a master's degree in the field of tourism and protection

23     of the environment.  Surprising, isn't it?

24        A.   The diplomas are relevant.  They are the academic qualifications.

25     Obviously the editorial board did not have at hand my diplomas.  The very

Page 20595

 1     fact that the book is about the demographics testifies to the direction

 2     of my scientific interest.  However, besides the demography as my primary

 3     interest, I've already testified yesterday that I'm also qualified as a

 4     social geographer.  And within the field of study of social geography is

 5     also the field of tourism, which is a discipline that falls within the

 6     purview of that field.  I agree it's a little bit contradictory, and,

 7     yes, I agree that it should have been mentioned in a more precise way in

 8     order to avoid any confusion.

 9        Q.   And if -- it seems that your interest in tourism -- nothing wrong

10     with that, of course, but your interest in tourism continued, because if

11     you look at your published scholarly papers at page 79 of your report,

12     page 79 of your report, it's all part of this section dealing with your

13     curriculum vitae and publications, and the section headed "Published

14     Scholarly Papers," in 1996 you produced a paper called "Tourism

15     Potentials of the Republika Srpska."  Do you see that?

16        A.   Yes.  But I don't see what is the problem.

17        Q.   I'm not suggesting there's a problem.  All I'm trying to

18     establish is that your master's was really all about tourism and the

19     environmental issues.

20        A.   No, no.

21        Q.   Okay.

22        A.   You can see the title that I acquired after I did the graduation

23     study, and you can also take a look at the exams that I had to pass.

24     None of the exams related to the discipline of tourism.  However, the

25     influence of demographics and the tourism on the protection of the

Page 20596

 1     environment in relation to the demographic development is something that

 2     I continued to study because all these issues interact.  If you take a

 3     look at the list of my published works, you will certainly see that the

 4     most dominant works are the demographic works.  After that come my

 5     published articles from social geography and they are focussed on the

 6     tourism because tourism is part of social geography, according to the

 7     standards currently in force where I live, which are applied during the

 8     election process for the teachers for more narrowly specialised areas of

 9     my scientific discipline.  You have to bear in mind that I have two

10     distinct, narrow professional specialties.

11        Q.   Okay.  So in your book "Anthropogenic Reality of Serbs," when the

12     introduction speaks about your having a master's degree in the field of

13     tourism and protection of the environment, the failure to mention

14     demography is just an unfortunate editorial oversight; correct?  Is that

15     what you say?

16        A.   The editor did not formulate our biographies in a most skillful

17     way because they are not written according to the aforementioned

18     principles.  However, it wasn't really his duty to emphasise my more

19     narrow specialty in a book like this.  The contents of the book itself

20     speaks to the fact that my primary field of study is scientific

21     demography; you can see that in all the references quoted.  If you take a

22     comprehensive look at my bibliography, you will see that the demography

23     is always at the first place.  And you have to take into account the

24     structure of all my articles, books, presentations, and international

25     conferences, et cetera.

Page 20597

 1        Q.   Okay.

 2        A.   It is not forbidden to take an interest into other disciplines.

 3        Q.   Certainly, Professor.  Certainly.  Let's look at some more of

 4     your qualifications.  You obtained a doctorate in 1995 and you defended

 5     your thesis for that doctorate in March of 1995; right?  And that was at

 6     the University of Novi Sad.

 7        A.   Yes.

 8        Q.   What was the title?

 9        A.   The exact title of my dissertation is "Semberija:  A Geographical

10     Study with an Emphasis on the Population."  After I had defended the

11     dissertation, it acquired a status of scientific work.  And then I

12     published it as a book with a slightly changed title, and that title was

13     "The Population of Semberija:  A Demographic Study."  You can find the

14     book in my bibliography.  And it is the result of my research that I have

15     conducted during my PhD studies.

16        Q.   Okay.  And in your curriculum vitae which is at page 76 of your

17     report, it says that you have a doctorate in geography with a

18     specialisation in demography.

19             MR. Di FAZIO:  Could we just have a look once again at

20     65 ter 281.  Yes, thank you, the same introduction, the same page that we

21     were looking at earlier.

22        Q.   And there, Professor Dr. Jovan Ilic, full professor at the

23     Belgrade university, giving your background, says that you have a

24     doctorate from the Faculty of Natural Sciences in Novi Sad in the field

25     of regional geography.  Now, is there any reason for his failure to

Page 20598

 1     account -- to include anything about your specialisation in demography,

 2     following your acquisition of this -- of your doctorate, in a book that's

 3     about demography?

 4        A.   I think that there is a reason.  During a short period of time, I

 5     taught regional geography because there was a need for that at the

 6     university, and since regional geography comprises everything about the

 7     population as well.  However, you are elected into a more narrow

 8     scholarly specialty on the basis of your published work, on the basis of

 9     your references, so I have PhD in geographical sciences and my more

10     narrow specialty is determined by my published work, by the references

11     defined by the law and bylaws.  And only when all the circumstances are

12     met, only then can somebody be elected, as I was in the year 2000, to

13     teach the subject of demography of population.

14             So I never taught only demography.  Even today I teach other

15     subjects because we all have to fulfill a certain number of teaching

16     hours in order to satisfy our working requirements.  So every teacher or

17     professor has primary and secondary teaching assignments.  And I think

18     simply that the professors who wrote these blurbs did not have at hand

19     all my diplomas; they simply wrote what they wrote because they knew what

20     I was engaged in at the moment.  And that is the reason for this

21     particular biography, although this book is of course covering the

22     problematics of the population about every region.

23        Q.   Yeah, but -- sorry, but you've told us about where you were

24     working and so on, but I'm not interested in that.  I want to know how

25     it's possible that in an introduction to your book on demography, your

Page 20599

 1     doctorate, a very important academic qualification, is described as being

 2     in the field of regional geography and doesn't mention anything about

 3     demographics.  I don't want to know where you were working at the time.

 4     I want to know how it happened that a mistake like that occurred.

 5        A.   It isn't really a mistake.  Let me repeat the title of the

 6     dissertation:  "Semberija," that's region.  That's a more narrow area,

 7     with its own particular characteristics.  So this is, of course, a study

 8     in regional geography, however it was a demographic study.  That doesn't

 9     mean that other characteristics of the given area were not also

10     researched.  This was a practical study with practical applications in

11     the particular area.  Those are the most desirable studies because then

12     you can contribute towards the -- towards finding of the solutions in a

13     particular area.  This is what it was all about.  I really don't see any

14     mistake here.

15        Q.   You agree it would have been really infinitely preferable for

16     your -- any specialisation that you had actually obtained in your

17     doctorate that dealt with demographics to have been included here in your

18     introduction to your book which deals with demographics?

19             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Di Fazio, if I understood correctly, the

20     Prosecution had not mounted any challenge to his expertise as a

21     demographer, so I'm at a loss as to appreciating the usefulness of this

22     line of questions.

23             MR. Di FAZIO:  Yes, I understand that.  If Your Honours please,

24     firstly, there's two answers to that.  The first answer is the level of

25     expertise is a matter that can be explored and properly explored, in my

Page 20600

 1     submission.  And secondly, the research this gentleman, this witness,

 2     performed was performed between 1992 and 1995.  That's when the

 3     statistics that form so-called Annex A were apparently collated and

 4     created.  He had no demographic expertise at that time.  He may have

 5     acquired it later.  That's the point.

 6             JUDGE HALL:  Thank you.

 7             MR. Di FAZIO:

 8        Q.   All right.  You've heard the point.  That's true, isn't it, by

 9     1995 you really had no formal qualifications at all in demographics?

10     Your main -- to be fair, your main field of study, your principle field

11     of study, was geography?

12             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honour, I think that my

13     colleague is confusing the witness.  In 1995 he was not performing this

14     work.  The data are from 1995 and he used those data when he was

15     compiling this report, and I think that that is the proper question.

16             MR. Di FAZIO:  I understood that the witness had collated his

17     data between 1992 and 1995.

18        Q.   That's correct, isn't it?  The data that you used in your expert

19     report that forms the backbone of Annex A, that was all collected by you

20     in between 1992 and 1995; correct?

21        A.   First of all, a person can be a very good demographer without the

22     formal title of PhD.  Secondly, there is no special study of demography

23     in the territory of the former Yugoslavia.  You could acquire this

24     qualification studying at the Faculty of Geography and partially at the

25     Faculty of Economics.  Thirdly, people with master's degree are also

Page 20601

 1     scholars and that's what I was doing at the time.  There is no particular

 2     precondition that you would have to have a PhD in order to perform this

 3     research, so I see no problem here.  I don't see that there is any

 4     problem related to whether somebody had a PhD at the time or not.  This

 5     is my biography, and I cannot change it now.

 6        Q.   You would agree with me, wouldn't you, that a good grounding in

 7     demographics would have assisted you in the methods of collating the

 8     material that you gathered in between 1992 and 1995, it would have vastly

 9     improved the methods of collation of material?

10        A.   No, that's not what I think.  I was well versed in demography.

11     If you accept the fact that I graduated from the Faculty of Geography,

12     you will see that one of the fundamental fields of study there is

13     population, so that was my most relevant field of research.  And the same

14     goes for my graduate study.  The most important faculties and the most

15     important professors were the ones who led me through that subject

16     matter.  I wouldn't have had the ambition to go into demographic research

17     on my own if I didn't have a chance to acquire such a good basis for it.

18     You usually go and study things where you can gain the knowledge from

19     that particular discipline, and I think that you can see that from all my

20     references.  I feel completely secure in my area of work.

21             MR. Di FAZIO:  Thank you, Professor.  This would be -- I think,

22     brings an end to this topic.

23             JUDGE HALL:  So we've reached the time which we adjourn for the

24     day.  We will resume at 9.00 tomorrow morning.

25                           [The witness stands down]

Page 20602

 1                           --- Whereupon the hearing adjourned at 1.45 p.m.,

 2                           to be reconvened on Thursday, the 12th day

 3                           of May, 2011, at 9.00 a.m.