120502IT

Page 28325

1 A. They were part of the group called "others," together with

2 ethnicities different than three major groups: Muslims, Serbs, and

3 Croats.

4 Q. Thank you. Do you agree that among those "others" Yugoslavs were

5 so numerous that they account to a two-third to even three fourths of

6 those others? Do you agree that it would have been more natural to add

7 the others to the Yugoslavs rather than vice versa?

8 A. I don't know exactly how many Yugoslavs were there among others.

9 Whether it was two-thirds or three-quarters, I don't know exactly. But

10 the point of my analysis was to produce figures for three major ethnic

11 groups, and for all remaining ethnic groups, there were also statistics

12 to keep the analysis complete. But I had no particular interest in

13 distinguishing from others, Yugoslavs and any other ethnicity reported

14 there.

15 Q. In your experience, who are those Yugoslavs? What is their

16 origin?

17 A. You know, for me, they are Yugoslavs, exactly as reported in the

18 census. But, of course, depending who is telling me who are the

19 Yugoslavs, in some case, Yugoslavs will be Serbs, in some other case,

20 Croat, in some other cases, Muslims.

21 So, for me, they are Yugoslavs, as reported in the census.

22 Q. Very well. Thank you. According to your experience, in 1991

23 when Yugoslavia was breaking up, how many Serbs were among Yugoslavs, and

24 how many Croats, and how many Muslims?

25 A. Well, Yugoslavs, for me, are Yugoslavs. So it is, you know, how

Page 28326

1 people perceive themselves to be. They wanted to report them as

2 Yugoslavs. Many of them were persons from mixed marriages. Many of them

3 were people living in urban populations. They just didn't see them as

4 one or another ethnic group. They wanted to report Yugoslavs.

5 Q. With all due respect to your personality and your work, if you

6 hailed from Armis [phoen] you would say that this was Communist

7 propaganda. We have to look at the essence not the form. The form is

8 that those were people who were in favour of the preservation of

9 Yugoslavia by sacrificing their own ethnicity. However, did you notice

10 that that category was very volatile? From one census to the next, their

11 numbers changed. It did not have the usual dynamics in birth rate and

12 mortality rate as the other three peoples?

13 A. What is often forgotten, and you forget it as well, Mr. Karadzic,

14 is that Yugoslavs and other reports on ethnicity are very sensitive to

15 the formulation of this census question about ethnicity, and to the

16 instructions the interviewers received when questioning people about

17 ethnicity.

18 The thing is that until 1971 census this wasn't an open question.

19 Interviewers were deciding for people how to record their ethnicity. It

20 changed since 1971. Since that moment, people could report whatever they

21 wanted. This, of course, had a very serious impact on the numbers

22 produced about ethnic groups. I recently saw a study in a journal,

23 scientific journal, in which changes in ethnicity, definition of

24 ethnicity, in the census were discussed. So it was not possible in this

25 particular study to analyse phenomena by ethnicity for the entire period

Page 28327

1 after the Second World War, starting with the first census, I think it

2 was in 1948, until, and including the census of 1991. It was only

3 possible to study ethnicity for the latest censuses that consistently

4 reported about ethnic groups and about Yugoslavs.

5 So what I'm trying to say, the definition of the question on

6 ethnicity in the census has a fundamental importance on the numbers

7 produced later. So if you don't look at the definition, you neglect the

8 definition, and you look at the numbers, then you analyse something that

9 is not, in fact, in the data. You have to take into account the

10 consistency of definition on ethnicity used throughout the censuses or

11 any other source studied.

12 Q. Thank you. I will be very honest, Dr. Tabeau, and very open.

13 230-something thousand people were Yugoslavs in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

14 Of that number, in 1991, probably as many as 200.000 were Serbs and when

15 you separate them and join them with the others who account for one third

16 or one fourth of that figure, then the picture, the ethnic structure you

17 are portraying is completely distorted; isn't that right?

18 A. Well, it isn't right, of course. What is the reason that you

19 consider people who reported themselves as Yugoslavs to be Serbs? That

20 cannot be done. This is changing the responses in the census. This

21 is -- there is no justification of it and it is not right. You may not

22 do that.

23 Q. Very well. However, not even you can merge a category which is

24 fully recognised by the census with the others. We all know only too

25 well who was in favour of Yugoslavia in 1991. Why didn't you portray

Page 28328

1 them separately? Instead of doing that, you joined them with a minority.

2 JUDGE KWON: Now you become argumentative. I think you've

3 exhausted this issue.

4 Let us move on.

5 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

6 Q. Please look at chapter 2 and Table 2. Or, rather, chapter 2,

7 bullet point 1 where it is referred to the percentage of Muslims in

8 Bosnia and Herzegovina in the municipalities referred to in the

9 indictment against Karadzic. 41 per cent in 1991 and 32.8 in 1992 were

10 the percentages we discussed yesterday.

11 Did you establish what were the factors that had an impact on

12 that decrease?

13 MS. WEST: I think it will be easier if we go to the document,

14 P4994. E-court page 9.

15 JUDGE KWON: Thank you, Ms. West.

16 THE WITNESS: Okay. My answer to the question, whether I studied

17 factors that had an impact on this decrease, the answer is no, I didn't.

18 However, there is a study of displacement of ethnic groups in the same

19 report. So the change in ethnic composition should be looked at,

20 together with the results on displacement.

21 If I may have one more comment, yesterday we ended the day with a

22 question why it is 19.9 per cent decrease and not 20 per cent. I

23 checked, and, of course, this is what I -- was it was. It is a rounding

24 error. The 41 per cent in fact is 40.9552. So these kind of small

25 differences that cannot not be seen when only one decimal place is shown

Page 28329

1 are responsible for this kind of little things in the report.

2 JUDGE KWON: Thank you, Doctor.

3 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

4 Q. And that was about 8 percental points or 19.something per cent.

5 Did you establish the difference between the Muslims who remained living

6 in those Serbian municipalities and those who left?

7 A. As a matter of fact, yes. If we go to the section 2.2, there

8 will be minimum numbers of displaced Muslims given. So in the second

9 paragraph in this section, we see the number 161.047 persons.

10 So the rest of the 1997 Muslim population remained in the

11 territory. In order to see how large the rest was, we have to go to the

12 annex, to Table 2 for Muslims.

13 MS. WEST: E-court page 42.

14 THE WITNESS: So to the -- we don't see it on the screen yet. I

15 will wait.

16 So if we can enlarge the first row, information for the Karadzic

17 case area, in the third-last column we can find the number 161.047.

18 These are the displaced Muslims. But the entire Muslim population

19 identified in 1997 is 283.199. It's the number to the left from 161.000.

20 So from this table, you can also see that the fraction of

21 displaced people in 1997 in the Muslim population was 56.9 per cent; also

22 given in the same table, in the second-last column. Almost 57 per cent.

23 So the rest are those who stayed. That would be 43 per cent,

24 approximately. That is how you can find these numbers in the report,

25 but, obviously, the focus of the report is on displacement. Therefore,

Page 28330

1 the figures of displaced are discussed explicitly.

2 It is also useful to take a look at the presentation discussed

3 previously. If we go to page 2 of the presentation.

4 MS. WEST: P05010.

5 THE WITNESS: To Table 4 at the bottom of this page.

6 MS. WEST: It's the next page.

7 THE WITNESS: Table 4. In the second column where the minimum

8 number of IDPs and refugees is mentioned, there is for Muslims the number

9 161.047, just discussed, and next to it, we have statistics on displaced

10 persons from other ethnic groups. So there is a total of 286.972

11 displaced persons. Muslim -- persons of Muslim ethnicity are by all

12 means the largest group of the displaced persons.

13 This, of course, doesn't mean that every Muslim moved out. There

14 is a group who stayed as well.

15 So if it would be helpful to the Trial Chamber, I could make the

16 same table for those who stayed, to have both statistics at hand.

17 JUDGE KWON: Doctor, could you repeat the number of -- the total

18 number.

19 THE WITNESS: The total number of -- minimum number of displaced

20 persons from the Karadzic case area is 286.972.

21 JUDGE KWON: It's not shown on this table.

22 THE WITNESS: It is shown on this table. In the last row, in the

23 last row, where the totals are given --

24 JUDGE KWON: Oh, yes.

25 THE WITNESS: -- it is shown in the second column at the bottom.

Page 28331

1 JUDGE KWON: Yes, I see now. Thank you.

2 THE WITNESS: Yes.

3 And, of course, these are minimum numbers as we obtained the

4 numbers from a sample; a large sample, but a sample.

5 JUDGE KWON: Yes, Karadzic.

6 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

7 Q. And this is a specifically selected area or part of Bosnia and

8 Herzegovina and in that specific part you express the figures in

9 percentages.

10 Let's look at the second line which refers to Muslims. Is it

11 true that in 1991, there were 481.109 Muslims; is that correct?

12 A. In this particular area of 27 municipalities, that's the number

13 of Muslims reported, those born before 1980.

14 Q. And now let's look at the next three columns.

15 161.000 is a minimum number. The estimated number is 284.000.

16 Could you not establish that for a fact without any estimates?

17 How would you have arrived at 59 per cent? Wouldn't it not have been

18 easier to take that figure from the list of refugees?

19 A. I -- I'm not sure what is the question about. If you could

20 perhaps rephrase.

21 Q. Why did you use estimates in the third and the fourth columns

22 where it says 284.000, to the fifth column where it says 285.000? Did

23 you have at your disposal the register of refugees? Why did you not use

24 the specific documentation issued by the Muslim government about

25 refugees?

Page 28332

1 A. For -- for the reasons we discussed yesterday, that it is

2 important to be able to produce an independent study that would

3 corroborate -- corroborate results from other sources, but, of course,

4 there were also practical reasons. The register of internally displaced

5 persons and refugees, the one of UNHCR, together with the government of

6 Bosnia and Herzegovina, had an information that was limited, for

7 instance, in regard to ethnicity of persons, which, for us, was a crucial

8 thing.

9 Secondly, the register that we had at our disposal reports the

10 situation as of the year 2000 which is even later than what we studied

11 based on the voters' registration. For these reasons, among others, we

12 rather used the sources like the population census and the voters'

13 register.

14 Q. And you believe that an estimate or a calculation, even though

15 you did not analyse trend, is more precise than the data provided by

16 government organs?

17 A. Well, I analysed the sources that I analysed because I found them

18 reliable and meaningful and possible to be used in the analysis as ours.

19 By the way, I checked the size of the voters' register of 1996

20 that we discussed yesterday, so at some point, there was a hesitation

21 whether the size was bigger of this register than the register of 1997.

22 So in 1996 elections, there were 2.396.000 voters registered. So

23 2.4 million individuals. In 1997, it is many more. So participation

24 rate estimated for 1996 is 82 per cent. For 1997, it is 88 per cent.

25 Q. Can we please take a look at Table 2A entitled: "Democratic

Page 28333

1 changes in some municipalities in the Karadzic area." My page is 35, but

2 I probably mixed them up because I was add some remarks of my own.

3 While we are still on this issue, are you aware that in our law

4 there is a distinction between residence and domicile? In our

5 translation, it is said residence, but I'm asking you whether you know

6 there is a difference between those two categories. If you don't know

7 what the difference is, I can tell you.

8 A. Well, in demography, we call it de facto and de jure populations.

9 Q. For example, you know where Zvornik is and Rastocnica is a big

10 Serbian village close to Zvornik but belongs to Kalesija municipality.

11 Now the residence of that person is in Rastocnica while his domicile is

12 in Zvornik. How did you register such persons?

13 A. Then I must say that my understanding of de facto and de jure is

14 a different thing. I am afraid I don't understand what domicile is.

15 Q. Domicile is a place of permanent residence, whereas, residence is

16 where a person lives and exercise many of his or her rights. But

17 basically a person belongs to Rastocnica and in spite of the fact that he

18 has to exercise many of his rights in Zvornik, in actual fact?

19 A. In statistics, we have, as I mentioned, de facto and de jure

20 populations. Census in the former Yugoslavia, and including the 1991

21 census, was related to the de jure population. Households where

22 interviews were -- at the places where they lived, head of household

23 actually was asked to provide information about any members of this

24 household. Those who didn't live at this particular location were

25 reported by the household and included in the questionnaire.

Page 28334

1 Q. And once the war broke out, this person went back to his domicile

2 and then registered for elections in another municipality. How do we

3 solve a situation like that?

4 A. Well, there are two issues in the -- in the -- related to the

5 registration of voters.

6 The place of registration to vote is one thing, and there is

7 another item, another variable. It is the municipality they wanted to

8 vote for. So, in principle, people were supposed to vote for the

9 municipalities where they used to live in 1991. However, if somebody

10 became a displaced person, the person could vote as well for another

11 municipality, a municipality where, in the future, this person wanted to

12 settle down.

13 In my analysis, I didn't study the municipality they voted for

14 because it is not something not needed for my analysis. We studied the

15 place of registration, place of registration, the municipality of

16 registration, where people registered to vote. So this is a different

17 item and has nothing to do with the voters' rights, any other rights

18 people exercise at that time in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

19 Q. Uh-huh. But do you believe that a person could register in one

20 municipality and go to vote in another municipality? Wasn't a normal

21 situation that people registered themselves and voted in one and the same

22 municipality instead of sending their ballot papers by mail as people

23 did, people who lived abroad?

24 A. I believe registration is a process that took place before the

25 actual election, so I'm not interested in what was happening at the time

Page 28335

1 of election, when the actual voting was taking place. I'm looking at the

2 registration to vote. And there were strict rules established by OSCE

3 for the purpose of registration and for the purpose to prevent fraud. As

4 I'm saying, people actually had -- could register in the municipality

5 where they lived and voting could be later in person or by absentee

6 ballot. It really doesn't interest me. It is the place of registration

7 that I study because it is an approximation of the place of residence.

8 Q. But that was impossible, Dr. Tabeau. It wasn't possible for a

9 person to register, for example, in Brcko and then go to vote in

10 Banja Luka. You could only vote in the place where you are registered.

11 So if you're a refugee in Brcko and you wish to vote for

12 Banja Luka, the only way to do that is to register in Banja Luka; is that

13 correct, in your opinion?

14 A. Well, people could register, once again, wherever they lived, and

15 they had to register to vote in order to be able to vote. They could

16 register in Brcko to vote for Banja Luka. That is possible according to

17 the OSCE rules.

18 In order to vote for Banja Luka, a person either had to live

19 there by the time of 1991 census and be listed on the census of the

20 Banja Luka population, or, if it was a displaced person who didn't want

21 to return to Banja Luka, the person could register to vote for another

22 municipality.

23 The municipality of future residence, in this case, the person

24 had to prove that it was possible for this person to settle down in this

25 future municipality of residence. All this is regulated in the election

Page 28336

1 procedures that was established by the OSCE and then monitored in the

2 course of elections.

3 Actually, the regulations were less strict in 1996 elections. So

4 in 1996 elections, the procedure was deficient and made it possible for

5 people to register to vote for several municipalities. And -- that was a

6 very well-known fact. And based on the experience from 1996 election,

7 the OSCE improved the regulations in order to prevent exactly this case.

8 But all this has nothing to do with the place of registration to

9 vote in 1997 elections. People had to register first in order to vote,

10 and what we used in our study is the place of registration to vote.

11 Q. But, Dr. Tabeau, let's clarify one thing.

12 If you have a person registering in Brcko and wants to vote in

13 Banja Luka, in which voters' register is this person registered? In

14 Brcko or in Banja Luka, regardless of whether he sent his registration to

15 Banja Luka or went there in person, which means that he doesn't exist in

16 the Brcko voters' register because he doesn't want to vote in the

17 municipality of Brcko?

18 A. Well, again, if this person lived in Brcko, as a displaced

19 person, and went to the registration centre next to his house in Brcko,

20 the person will be registered in Brcko. And this is all that matters,

21 for me.

22 Q. But it will not be registered in Brcko, but, rather, in

23 Banja Luka. There's no mention of this person in Brcko. He is going to

24 vote for Banja Luka, regardless of where he is registered. And this can

25 be a source of serious confusions if you believe that this person was

Page 28337

1 actually registered in Brcko. Maybe you had been given erroneous

2 information.

3 MS. WEST: Mr. President, Your Honours --

4 THE WITNESS: I would like to comment on this, please.

5 MS. WEST: Doctor Tabeau, hold on a moment.

6 THE WITNESS: Okay.

7 MS. WEST: We have been over this subject for about 20 minutes,

8 and I don't understand -- it's unclear to me whether perhaps the accused

9 is misunderstanding what has been stated, but Dr. Tabeau several times

10 has indicated that the only thing that mattered to her in her study and

11 the only fact she took into consideration was where the person registered

12 and that's important because that shows that that person is in a

13 different location in 1997 than they were in 1991. For whom they voted

14 for or for which town they wanted to vote in is irrelevant to the study

15 at all, so --

16 JUDGE KWON: There seems to be confusion as to the place where --

17 used to be where the voter is to register. So, Doctor, I think -- that

18 seems to be pointed out. Why don't we let her continue.

19 MS. WEST: Thank you, Mr. President.

20 THE WITNESS: Yeah, my comment is that related to the operation,

21 way of operation of OSCE. During the 1997 elections, OSCE was extremely

22 well prepared this time to be able to check every eligible voter from the

23 point of view where they lived in 1991 because they had a complete list

24 of eligible voters in every registration office. So it was a huge

25 material printed census where people were listed, eligible voters were

Page 28338

1 listed, and it was possible to check from Brcko where the person lived in

2 1991.

3 So if the person lived in 1991 in Banja Luka, the person was

4 checked and registered as a voter from Banja Luka, that is, entitled to

5 vote for Banja Luka or a future municipality of residence according to

6 his choice. But the place of registration will be still Brcko.

7 So, in my view, there is absolutely no confusion about the place

8 of registration at all.

9 JUDGE KWON: So one can vote in other place than the place he

10 lives currently, only if he was registered in 1991 election.

11 THE WITNESS: So the previous --

12 JUDGE KWON: In the 1991 census.

13 THE WITNESS: Yeah. The precondition to vote and register to

14 vote was the fact of being registered in the 1991 census. And the place

15 of residence from the 1991 census was also part of the registration

16 procedure. Place -- these were municipal elections. People were

17 extremely motivated to participate because they were electing local

18 parliament. The people who will be at power after the election will end.

19 So if you used to live in a municipality in, like Banja Luka, and you had

20 your house there, and you became a displaced person, you were obviously

21 interested to return to your house. So disregarding where you ended

22 after the war, likely if you were a Muslim from Banja Luka, you ended in

23 a place in the Federation with your family or friends or in a collective

24 centre for refugees and displaced persons.

25 You could vote from there. You could register there where you

Page 28339

1 lived without travelling on the bus, or whatever else, and vote for your

2 own municipality, from the place you stayed at that time of elections.

3 Travel was very complicated at that time. It was not safe for all

4 displaced persons to travel back to their homes and register and vote

5 there. So this procedure OSCE developed was based on the actual

6 realities in the country at that period.

7 JUDGE KWON: Yes, Mr. Karadzic.

8 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

9 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

10 Q. Let's just clarify one thing. If we have a person from

11 Banja Luka registered in Zenica and he voted for Banja Luka, how did you

12 count this person as being residing in Banja Luka?

13 A. Well, if the person resided in Zenica and registered in Zenica,

14 the person is taken as registered in Zenica. At -- really, we should

15 forget about, you know, the municipalities they voted for because this

16 wasn't studied and this is an issue that is a separate issue. It only

17 confuses the matter. We should really keep in mind that we looked at the

18 place of registration where they registered to vote.

19 Q. Thank you. But hundreds of thousands of voters who were

20 registered in the US, Canada, European countries and voted for their

21 respective municipalities, in which category did you put these people?

22 A. These were out-of-country voters. They had the opportunity to

23 vote in the countries where they were staying at the time of elections.

24 There is a separate category developed for them by the OSCE and procedure

25 that was used in the election. So disregarding where they were living at

Page 28340

1 the time of 1991 census in Bosnia, they could register from abroad and

2 actually several hundreds thousands of out-of-country voters registered

3 in 1997 election.

4 Q. And they registered in New York City or in Salt Lake City, for

5 example, because there are many of them. However, they did not appear in

6 person. And you never included them in the tables because one has to

7 bear in mind the fact that the majority of those who left for the US and

8 other parts of America were Muslims but we don't see them here.

9 A. They are included in the tables as a joint category of internally

10 displaced persons and refugees. I always used in the report IDPs and

11 refugees jointly.

12 Of course, the first category, internal displacement, is a much

13 larger component than the out-of-country voters. In the Milosevic

14 report, Slobodan Milosevic report, there are several tables where this

15 figure, joint number of internally displaced and refugees, is broken down

16 into separately internal displacement and refugees.

17 Refugees are underrepresented though - that means out-of-country

18 voters are underrepresented, though - in my statistics, because the

19 participation rate was not as high as for people who lived at the time of

20 elections in the region of the former Yugoslavia.

21 Q. But for the elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina, particularly during

22 the first two or three elections, we had numerous sacks of ballot papers

23 that had arrived from abroad. But if you did not count those Muslims who

24 were the majority, there were, of course, some Serbs and Croats, then we

25 have lesser number of Muslims. How did it happen that there were so many

Page 28341

1 people scattered around the world and they were registered in different

2 countries? How can we find these persons?

3 Now let us look at chapter 6, Table 2A, which refers to Muslims.

4 Let's take an example, a municipality.

5 MS. WEST: This is e-court 24.

6 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

7 Q. Please take a look, for example, at Kljuc where I put an asterisk

8 next to. In your opinion, how many Muslims lived in Kljuc in 1997,

9 according to this table?

10 A. Well, this table doesn't report on 1997. It is only for 1995

11 that there is a number reported, and this number is 1.211.

12 Q. But there are some entries for 1997 as well. Am I right? There

13 are percentages.

14 A. Yes. For this, we have to go to my report, to Table 1 for

15 Muslims.

16 MS. WEST: E-court 30.

17 THE WITNESS: Or perhaps Table 2 for Muslims. The same number is

18 there. It is easier because we discussed this table already.

19 MS. WEST: 42.

20 THE WITNESS: So next page, please. And row 12.

21 Kljuc is a split municipality, and, therefore, two parts are

22 reported separately. Federation part is the first component. And

23 Kljuc Ribnik, it is the RS part, is the second component.

24 So if we go to the population of Muslims in 1997, which is the

25 fourth -- the middle column, actually. So in RS, there were only 21

Page 28342

1 persons identified; and 8.433 in the federal part.

2 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

3 Q. Thank you. So if we look at this table where it says that Kljuc

4 had .1 per cent of Muslims in 1997 is incorrect; right?

5 I was referring to the previous table that we looked at under

6 chapter 6.

7 A. I think it is correct because what is given in the Table 2A for

8 Muslims, for 1997, takes only the RS part into account.

9 MS. WEST: Back to page 24.

10 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Can we have the next page. I think

11 it's page 25 in chapter 6.

12 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

13 Q. Let us look at how the Serbs and the Croats were registered in

14 these municipalities.

15 A. Well, I am not sure that everybody understands what is the

16 per cent mentioned in Table 2A for 1997 .01 per cent. It is the number

17 of Muslims that stayed in Kljuc, in the RS part of Kljuc, related to all

18 Muslims from Kljuc identified in 1997. Because the number of displaced

19 was 19, the number who stayed is obviously 2; very small. I'm talking

20 about the annex table, 2M.

21 JUDGE KWON: Shall we go back to page 43 briefly.

22 So could you explain to us how the per cent of .1 can be reached

23 from table.

24 THE WITNESS: Yes. So in the RS part of Kljuc, in total, 21

25 Muslims are reported for 1997.

Page 28343

1 JUDGE KWON: So --

2 THE WITNESS: Of them, 19 are displaced, so are gone, moved out.

3 JUDGE KWON: Mm-hm.

4 THE WITNESS: So just 2 remain in the same territory. 2 divided

5 by 21, that's the per cent.

6 JUDGE KWON: That's 10 per cent.

7 THE WITNESS: Oh. That is correct.

8 JUDGE KWON: How do you come to 0.1 per cent.

9 THE WITNESS: Perhaps it is a mistake in presentation here in

10 this table. I will check this.

11 JUDGE KWON: Thank you.

12 THE WITNESS: Yeah.

13 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

14 Q. Do you know that the Serbian municipality of Kljuc, or, rather,

15 Kljuc Ribnik in Republika Srpska consists of exclusively Serbian

16 villages, and Ribnik not even in 1991 were there a lot of Muslims there?

17 Did you establish how many Muslims were there in that part that

18 eventually was given to Republika Srpska after the Dayton Accords were

19 signed?

20 A. Well, all I could establish is in this report. So I can again

21 refer to the same table, 2M, or 1M. This is the table for Muslims.

22 First one, 1M, reporting on the ethnic composition, and the second one on

23 displacement, so from which we can take the numbers.

24 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Can we look at page 25 to see what

25 the situation with the Serbs was in these nine municipalities.

Page 28344

1 Thank you.

2 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

3 Q. For example, let's look at Bosanska Krupa, and let's see how many

4 Serbs were there in 1997.

5 A. So if we can go to page 38, this is Table 1S, for Serbs.

6 Q. I apologise. And what about this table that we have just had on

7 the screen? What does it say to us?

8 Does this table say that in Bosanska Krupa, in 1995, Serbs were

9 the 100 percent population; in 1997, they were 99.5 per cent?

10 A. I'm thinking now what exactly these percentages show.

11 JUDGE KWON: We can see that number in e-court page 39.

12 So here we see 99.5 per cent in -- in the row of RS part of

13 Bosanska Krupa.

14 THE WITNESS: Yeah, I think it is -- well, this 100 per cent for

15 1991 -- 1995, I'm not sure, but I think was reported by the authorities,

16 RS authorities, who compiled these figures. I don't remember this. I

17 have to check this. So that would be 95 per cent. 100 per cent.

18 And 99.5 is the per cent that is given from this report for the

19 RS part of Bosanska Krupa, which can be found in Table 1S on the screen.

20 It is number 3, row number 3. Bosanska Krupa has three components, two

21 of them belong to the Federation, and the last one is Republika Srpska.

22 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

23 Q. Dr. Tabeau, do you know that only the village of Hasani was left

24 to Republika Srpska out of all of Bosanska Krupa and it is simply because

25 the great Serbian author Branko Copic hails from there? So there is no

Page 28345

1 reference whatsoever to Serbs in Bosanska Krupa, whereas Krupa on the Una

2 was renamed, and it had to do with the right bank of the Una river

3 because the Serbs did not accept this adjective "Bosanska."

4 How did that happen? Here it says that 99.6 per cent of Serbs

5 are present. That would mean that there should be 2.690 Serbs and

6 perhaps there are not even 26 of them left there.

7 A. Well, I don't want to comment on what you said about what

8 happened in these territories because I'm not familiar with this kind of

9 events. I can only comment on the numbers that you gave us, and, again,

10 the numbers from my report are telling us about the RS component, the

11 little component of pre-war Bosanska Krupa that in 1991 had only a

12 population of 4.478 people, as reported in Table 1S. Of those, in 1997,

13 980 were identified as Serbs. I'm sorry. 975 were identified as Serbs.

14 Sorry. Yes. And the entire population identified for this territory in

15 1997 was 980. So almost all of them of these identified individuals who

16 previously lived in this territory, almost all of them, 99.5 per cent,

17 were Serbs.

18 JUDGE KWON: So that means the whole population in that part was

19 reduced to 20 per cent.

20 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Why 20 per cent?

21 JUDGE KWON: From 4500 to --

22 THE WITNESS: Yes. But this is a sample, 980. It is not that we

23 can take 980 as a complete population.

24 JUDGE KWON: Thank you, yes.

25 THE WITNESS: This is a sample we are discussing. And we can

Page 28346

1 relate the statistics, sample statistics, to each other, and this is what

2 I have done when producing this 99.5 per cent of Serbs on this territory,

3 as seen from the perspective of voters' data.

4 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

5 Q. May I ask you something? Is it correct that you said, for

6 example, this third one, Bosanska Krupa, Krupa Na Uni, the total

7 population according to the census of 1991 is 4.000, et cetera, and there

8 were 2.690 Serbs out of that total figure; is that right?

9 A. This is what it says in this table, for the 1991 census

10 population.

11 Q. Thank you. In 1997, you say that 975 per cent [as interpreted]

12 of the population are Serbs so your finding is that the number of Serbs

13 increased from 2690 to 975. Well, that certainty doesn't look like an

14 increase to me.

15 A. And that how it has to be. Because for 1991 we have a complete

16 segment of the population, from the census. It is those born before

17 1980, all of them, as reported in the census.

18 In 1997 we work with a sample with those voters who registered to

19 vote. So there is a group who did not register to vote. It is the

20 12 per cent of the voters' population eligible to vote, did not register.

21 So 980 overall population in 1997 is a sample of the 1991 population.

22 975 Serbs reported here is a sample of 2.690. It's a sample. But it's a

23 big sample that can be used to estimate the fraction of Serbs in 1997 in

24 this territory. And this fraction is 99.5 per cent compared with

25 60 per cent in 1991 census.

Page 28347

1 So there is a significant increase in the fraction of Serbs in

2 1997.

3 Q. Where did these Serbs live in 1997? Did you establish that they

4 lived in Krupa or did they report from somewhere to vote in Krupa but

5 none of them actually lived in Krupa?

6 A. Well, it is again the same issue of voting for and registering

7 in. As I said previously, it is all registered in this territory

8 reported here.

9 Q. But, Dr. Tabeau, Serbs from the Serb Bosanska Krupa are simply no

10 longer there anymore in 1995 and onwards. There are no three parts. All

11 of Bosanska Krupa belonged to the Federation then.

12 Now let us look at the table in chapter 6, C, Serbs. Let us go

13 back to that. Let us see what this looks like. Petrovac. What is the

14 situation in Bosanski Petrovac? Can you tell us, while we're still on

15 this topic, what the situation was with regard to Bosanski Petrovac?

16 Line 5. Municipality 5.

17 MS. WEST: Page 25.

18 THE WITNESS: So I want to make a comment about the

19 municipalities studied in this report.

20 We used the list of municipalities as defined in the post-Dayton

21 classification of municipalities in Bosnia. This classification scheme

22 was obtained from the OSCE and it was the same one that was used in the

23 1997 elections. But this is a dynamic system, it is possible that

24 certain municipalities were redefined in a later time. So what is in my

25 tables in the report, municipalities report, is consistent with the OSCE

Page 28348

1 classification scheme for municipalities at that time.

2 Going back to the table on the screen, on Serbs and

3 Bosanski Petrovac for 1995, there is a number of 14.550 reported by the

4 Serb authorities, RS authorities. And the per cent of Serbs in the 1995

5 population based on RS sources is 99.7 per cent. And the number in the

6 next column for 1997, 99 per cent, can be -- can be found in Table 1S,

7 Bosanski Petrovac.

8 MS. WEST: Page 39.

9 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

10 Q. Please take a look -- please go ahead. Please do go ahead?

11 A. I just wanted to take everybody to the 99 percent in this table,

12 for Bosanski Petrovac, for the RS part of Petrovac. It's in the

13 second-last column. Petrovac RS it given 99 per cent.

14 So these two are quite consistent.

15 Q. So in Bosanski Petrovac in 1997, were there 99 per cent Serbs or

16 were there not that many Serbs?

17 A. So this is what we can read in Table 1S. In 1997, there were

18 99 per cent of Serbs in the sample, 1997 sample, used in the study for

19 the RS part of Petrovac.

20 Q. That's a village that's called Drinic. In 1991, there was a

21 population of 261 and then in 1997, 205.

22 So in Bosanski Petrovac itself, 99.1 of the Serb population is

23 missing, right, in the area that came to belong to the Federation; right?

24 A. I don't know. Where do you read that 99.1 of the person Serb

25 population is missing? If you can please tell.

Page 28349

1 Q. Well, this table that have on the screen now, Bosanski Petrovac,

2 and then Bosanski Petrovac in the Federation. The part in the

3 Federation, I mean. It has 23 Serbs out of those thousands. 11.000,

4 whatever. There are 23 Serbs left. So that is minus 99.1 per cent.

5 There aren't there [as interpreted]. Almost 100 per cent is the figure

6 of those who are no longer there.

7 A. Mr. Karadzic refers to the row above the one for the Petrovac RS.

8 There are, in this row, for all ethnicity, the sample in 1997 is 3.415,

9 of which 23 were Serbs. A very small per cent indeed, 0.7 per cent, not

10 even 1 per cent.

11 And my answer is, yes, that that is how it was.

12 So the population movements, what we see for Petrovac, is not

13 unusual. The population movements were having the opposite direction for

14 those who were living in the RS and were moving to the Federation, and

15 those who were living in the Federation and moving to RS. So it is

16 easily understood if we think of what happened. The Dayton line divided

17 certain areas into two parts: One was in RS; and one was in the

18 Federation. And people, in order to feel safe, were crossing the Dayton

19 line and going to their own people.

20 I think this picture will be seen for many more municipalities.

21 And if we go to the presentation that we discussed earlier, to page 2 of

22 this presentation --

23 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Can we please take a look at

24 chapter 6, Table B for Croats.

25 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

Page 28350

1 Q. While we're waiting for that, Dr. Tabeau, how can we use this

2 study in this criminal case? Who are we to hold accountable for what

3 happened? The civil war or one of the parties? Because if it's the

4 civil war that stands accused, I will join you in that. But what is the

5 case?

6 MS. WEST: Objection.

7 JUDGE KWON: Not -- it's not for the witness to answer that

8 question.

9 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Well, the witness said that she did

10 not deal with establishing responsibility. However, the OTP called her

11 with good reason and included a vast number of tables and 11 studies. So

12 I'm interested in that.

13 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

14 Q. Please look at this. 1995 in Banja Luka. There's 10.500 Croats

15 out of a population of 29.000, which was the case in 1991, as far as the

16 Croat population is concerned; right?

17 A. Right.

18 Q. That is 6.8 per cent, whereas in 1997 it is 2.6 per cent. From

19 Dayton until 1997, two-thirds of the Croats left from Banja Luka.

20 Percentage-wise that was less than in the period from 1991 to 1995;

21 right?

22 A. Well, I -- I think that you are mixing up certain percentages.

23 It is, first of all, I don't know how do you know that two-thirds

24 of the Croats left from Banja Luka. And more certainly the 6.8 and 2.6

25 are different percentages that have nothing to do with those who left

Page 28351

1 here presented in this table. So I think it would be really useful to be

2 specific about what number you are discussing.

3 Q. The first column that involves the Croats. 14.8 per cent in 1991

4 and in 1995 they accounted for 6.8 per cent. That is to say, 10.000 in

5 relation to 29.000. So one-third remained. In 1997, again, one-third

6 had remained from the population that was there when Dayton was signed.

7 We're speaking in relative terms.

8 A. Well, you -- you can, indeed, compare 1991 number of Croats,

9 29.026, with 10.500, but this has nothing to do with 6.8 per cent which

10 is a different measure of a different thing. So obviously the number of

11 Croats in Banja Luka dropped, and considerably so. There is no doubt

12 about it. This is what we see based on the RS sources. But the

13 6.8 per cent is a measure of ethnic composition. It is how many Croats

14 were there among all ethnicities in Banja Luka in 1995. It is a

15 different presentation from what we see in my report and should be read

16 also in a different way.

17 Q. All right. But it is quite clear here that in the general

18 population there were 14.8 per cent in 1991. And then in 1995 they were

19 6.8 per cent in the general population. And in 1997 they were

20 2.6 per cent in the general population; right?

21 A. Yes, in Banja Luka.

22 Q. Percentage-wise in relative terms, this decrease from 6.8 to 2.6

23 is that not greater than the one from 14.8 to 6.8?

24 A. Well, I think it is a misreading of this table. For sure, this

25 table is not meant as a summary of the trend of what happened between

Page 28352

1 1995 and 1997. This table addresses a different issue, the issue of what

2 was happening between 1991 and the end of the war, 1995, and whether

3 figures from sources reporting on this provide a similar or different

4 picture compared with what was produced in -- in my report.

5 It is relevant to see how many people moved out from these

6 municipalities as of early 1993 and how many of them were reported at the

7 end of the war in 1995 and how their ethnic composition changed already

8 by 1995 as presented by the RS sources. So 1997 figures are not included

9 here as an expression of the trend between 1995 and 1997. It is just a

10 separate measurement, separate analysis, coming from a completely

11 different source than the RS sources, yet the numbers produced are

12 similar.

13 There is some uncertainty about these numbers, of course, so we

14 cannot compare them directly and tell that the trend was from 1995 to

15 1997, this changed like that. So I think the intention of this

16 presentation was completely different. Moreover, the RS sources were not

17 used by me and my colleagues to produce statistics on displacement.

18 Here, they are included for illustrative purposes of what was happening

19 as recorded by RS authorities during the war already.

20 JUDGE KWON: However, Doctor, in answer to the question of

21 Mr. Karadzic can you not see here from this table that ratio of Croat

22 people in Banja Luka has been reduced in 1997 compared to the situation

23 in 1995?

24 THE WITNESS: Yes, I can see that.

25 JUDGE KWON: Yes, the answer could be yes.

Page 28353

1 THE WITNESS: Okay. I can see that, but I still have some doubts

2 about the 6.8 per cent because the measurement was very approximate.

3 This is not a methodology that can be taken as a source to produce exact

4 figures.

5 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Excellency, I see that you're

6 mindful of the time.

7 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

8 Q. But let me just ask this: Do we agree that 14.8 per cent

9 compared to 6.8 per cent is less of a difference than if we compare 6.8

10 to 2.6. That means that in relative terms there is a larger decline in

11 the shares of the Croats in the general population from 1995 to 1997 than

12 from 1991 to 1995.

13 That can be calculated easily. Say, 1.1 or 1.3, and here it's

14 basically 1 to 3.

15 A. I can't comment on it because I don't fully follow what

16 Mr. Karadzic is calculating. What is the 14.8 per cent, for instance?

17 Q. That is the share of Croats in the general population in 1991.

18 6.8 is the share of the Croat population in the general population in

19 1995. And 2.6 is the share of the Croats in the general population in

20 1997.

21 So I'm saying that the decline is less when we compare 14.8 to

22 6.8, rather than 6.8 to 2.6. Is that right or is that not right?

23 A. Yes, it's right. Yeah.

24 Q. Thank you.

25 JUDGE KWON: We'll take a break for half an hour and resume at

Page 28354

1 11.05.

2 --- Recess taken at 10.34 a.m.

3 --- On resuming at 11.07 a.m.

4 JUDGE KWON: Yes, Mr. Karadzic.

5 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

6 Can I please ask for addendum B3 to be shown, demographic changes

7 of the population in the area relating to some of the municipalities

8 comprised by this case. That's Table B3.1.

9 THE WITNESS: Your Honour.

10 JUDGE KWON: Yes, Doctor.

11 THE WITNESS: While waiting for the right table may I comment on

12 the problem with Kljuc we discussed before the break.

13 We were looking at a wrong table. If we go to the right table in

14 the annex, which is Table 1M, for Kljuc, that we can find the right

15 number which is 0.1 per cent.

16 JUDGE KWON: Very well. Shall we see that table first? Could

17 you give us the number.

18 Yes, Ms. West.

19 MS. WEST: It's page 31.

20 JUDGE KWON: Oh, yes.

21 THE WITNESS: So if we go to RS part of Kljuc there was a

22 population in 1997 of 4.250 of all ethnicities and only 4 Muslims, which

23 give us the 0.1 per cent.

24 JUDGE KWON: Yes.

25 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

Page 28355

1 Q. But can we agree there were only 365 of them in 1991, and can we

2 also agree that this is a rural area that was abandoned by the Muslims?

3 That was not part of the urban area; right?

4 A. Well, I didn't study the character of these areas, whether they

5 were rural, urban and how the orientation changed. So I can't say.

6 Q. But do we agree that the number of the Serbs was halved in the

7 section of Kljuc that was given to the Serbs? The total was 8.200 minus

8 365, which means that in 1991 there were around 8.000-and-something

9 Serbs; whereas, in -- can you please help us -- yes. 4.250 in 1997.

10 Which means that the number of Serbs was also halved; right?

11 JUDGE KWON: That's a sample. Did she not say those are sample

12 numbers for 1997, Mr. Karadzic?

13 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] I don't think so, Your Excellency.

14 Because this is an estimate of the overall population. They may have

15 made their estimates based on a sample, but this estimate relates to the

16 entire population.

17 THE WITNESS: 1997 figures is a sample. 1995 figures coming from

18 the RS sources, I understand is not a sample.

19 JUDGE KWON: Yes. This row says "1997 sample population."

20 THE WITNESS: Yes.

21 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

22 Q. But correct me if I'm wrong, based on a sample you estimated the

23 overall population of Serbs in Ribnik; is that correct? This is not a

24 sample. The sample was used as a basis for estimating the overall

25 population.

Page 28356

1 A. Well, any figure for 1997 comes from a sample. I have never

2 estimated the overall population size in 1997 using the sample. I

3 estimated ethnic composition from that sample and numbers of displaced

4 persons and refugees as minimum numbers. It is a different type of

5 number than overall number.

6 Q. Again, it's not clear. What is 4.250? Is that a sample or is

7 that a figure that you reached based on a sample? And what was the size

8 of the sample?

9 A. If you can take me to the figure of 4.250, please. Where is it?

10 Q. Kljuc Ribnik 1997. Of 8.142 in 1997, this figure dropped to

11 900 ... to 4.250.

12 So how did you reach this figure?

13 Second line: .12 Ribnik, Republika Srpska, the total population

14 in 1997 of all ethnicities is 4.250, whereas, this figure itself does not

15 represent a sample. This is something that you reached on the basis of

16 the census.

17 A. I'm sorry, I am looking at the right table, which is Table 2S,

18 page 51 of my report --

19 Q. Please look at the screen. I'm referring to the one that is

20 currently on the screen.

21 MS. WEST: I think the confusion as Mr. Karadzic was talking

22 about the Serbs. This is a Muslim table. If we want to talk about the

23 Serbs, we need to go to the Serb table.

24 THE WITNESS: Yeah.

25 JUDGE KWON: Still, that all ethnicities -- numbers in all

Page 28357

1 ethnicities -- I'm sorry. Ethnicities. Represent sample numbers.

2 THE WITNESS: Yes, yes, yes.

3 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation].

4 Q. How can a sample exceed 50 per cent? How is a sample selected?

5 And what does it represent?

6 A. Well, we discussed very -- in a great detail how the sample was

7 created. It is the voters' register of 1997 that was created by the

8 OSCE, and a copy of which we received for our analysis. It's a sample of

9 2.5 million for 1997 individuals. That is how the sample was created.

10 If you distribute the numbers of voters from this sample

11 according to municipalities and ethnicity, and, of course, you -- first,

12 matched those records with the population census, this is how these

13 numbers, as those on the screen, were obtained. But it is a sample.

14 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

15 Q. But, please, what we see on the screen, Table 1M, we can see that

16 there were 8.142 inhabitants in Ribnik in 1991 out of which number there

17 were only 365 Muslims.

18 In 1997, the total number dropped to 4.250 with 4 Muslims only.

19 It doesn't matter that this relates to the Muslims. One can clearly see

20 that the drop in the number of Serbs is more than 50 per cent; is that

21 correct?

22 A. Well, this table is for -- for the Muslims. And 1997 data is a

23 sample. So you can't compare the absolute numbers from 1991 with that of

24 1997. For Kljuc Ribnik, for 1991, it is 8.142, and you can compared this

25 number with 4.250; overall size you are saying in 1997. This is not

Page 28358

1 correct. This is not the overall size in 1997. It is a sample for 1997.

2 Q. The sample of those registered to vote; right?

3 A. Yes. Those registered to vote and matched with the -- with their

4 census records.

5 Q. And how many Serbs were there in Ribnik in 1997?

6 A. So then we have to move to the Table 1S.

7 JUDGE KWON: Page, Ms. West.

8 THE WITNESS: Page 39.

9 JUDGE KWON: E-court 40, probably.

10 THE WITNESS: Then for Kljuc Ribnik, we can read the number of

11 Serbs is 4.207 out of 4.250 in the sample, which is 99 per cent.

12 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

13 Q. But in 1991, there was 7.686 Serbs. How many were there in 1997?

14 A. I can't say.

15 Q. Thank you.

16 A. At least --

17 Q. Thank you. Can we now look at Addendum B3, please.

18 Table B3.1.

19 MS. WEST: 105.

20 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

21 Q. Let us look at the first table. Can we agree that in 1991 there

22 were 28.558 Muslims and 29.026 Croats in Banja Luka; correct?

23 A. Yes.

24 Q. And 106.000 Serbs.

25 Now let's look to the 1995 column. We have 10.000 Muslims,

Page 28359

1 10.500 Croats, and 125.000 Serbs; correct?

2 A. Correct.

3 Q. Do we agree that the percentage of the participation of Muslims

4 and Croats in the overall population is affected by two factors: Number

5 one, the real decrease of Muslims and Croats by two-thirds as a result of

6 their departure; and, secondly, a relatively increased number of Serbs by

7 two -- 19.000; is that correct?

8 A. Not entirely, but in big lines. I think the ethnic composition

9 is an effect of changes in every ethnic group specified in this table.

10 Q. Thank you. But 14.6 Muslims and 14.8 Croats in 1995 the

11 percentages are 6.4 and 6.8, respectively. It was affected by two

12 factors: The real drop in the number of Muslims and Croats and the real

13 increase of the number of Serbs, and it all had an impact on relative

14 numbers; is that correct?

15 A. Well, as I said, in big lines, it is correct.

16 Q. Thank you. Do we see, then, in the period 1997/1998, the

17 percentage of Muslims and Croats dropped to 2.1 per cent and 2.6

18 per cent, respectively?

19 A. Yes. This is what is given here.

20 Q. Thank you. If we are now going to draw certain conclusions, the

21 first drop from 14.6 to 6.4 was caused by the war. Can we agree that the

22 decrease from 6.4 to 2.1 was the result of the Dayton Agreements,

23 according to which people had liberty to choose where to live?

24 MS. WEST: Objection.

25 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] On what grounds? I don't see it.

Page 28360

1 She is a demographic statisticians. She draws conclusions based on

2 numbers.

3 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

4 Q. Okay. I will put the question this way: How do you interpret

5 the fact that between 1995 and 1997, it dropped by two thirds? What was

6 cause -- the cause of that? If the first drop was caused by the civil

7 war, what was the cause of the -- of the second drop? That is what the

8 statistics is supposed to show us.

9 MS. WEST: Objection. In his question he has got a statement

10 that somehow suggests she said that the first cause was the civil war.

11 She never said this. She has never spoken about causes at all.

12 JUDGE KWON: Yes.

13 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

14 Q. Let me narrow it down. Do you agree that this peacetime drop may

15 have resulted from people's decision to change in -- entity?

16 A. I -- I -- I want to comment on something else. There is a slight

17 difference in how the two sets of numbers were produced. First of all,

18 sources were different. Methodology was different. Time-period on which

19 the sources' reports were different. So -- and the population covered by

20 1997/1998 and 1995 is different. 1995 is the entire population

21 supposedly, and 1997 is 18 plus.

22 Anyway, how I read these number, I look and assess the pattern in

23 the number, so I look at the entire distribution for all ethnic groups.

24 In 1991, 1995, and 1997/1998. And I see a change in the pattern that

25 indicates an increase in the share of Serbs and drops in the shares of

Page 28361

1 Muslims and Croats. That is my reading. And it has nothing to do with

2 causes and processes that led to these changes. I report on the change

3 in the pattern and that's it. That is all I am saying. And this is

4 how -- where my role ends here. To study causes of migration a totally

5 completely different approach would be needed. I would have to have a

6 separate survey, investigating causes of migration to those who moved

7 versus those who didn't.

8 So it is causes of migration is a very complex issue to study

9 in -- in a research.

10 Q. Thank you. Can we please move two tables down and let's look at

11 Krupa.

12 Do you agree that the number of Yugoslavs and others in Krupa

13 literally disappeared?

14 A. That is what is in the table. They are not reported in 1995.

15 Q. Thank you. Have you noticed that there is some consistency in

16 the drop of the number of Serbs and the drop of the number of others in

17 the Federation municipalities and, on the other hand, the increase of the

18 number of Serbs and the others in Serbian municipalities in

19 Republika Srpska?

20 A. Well, this is what I mentioned today already, this opposite

21 direction of movement of people from Republika Srpska and the Federation,

22 and I included figures to illustrate these movements in the presentation.

23 On page 2, Table 3, there is -- there are numbers who are showing this

24 opposite directions of movements in both parts, but we certainly can't

25 see that from the table for Bosanska Krupa in the annex which is on the

Page 28362

1 screen.

2 Q. Thank you. Please take a look the entries for Bosanski Novi.

3 There were 2.121 Yugoslavs which accounts for 5.1 per cent. In 1995, it

4 dropped to 1.7, and then in 1997 it increased to 4.5 which indicates that

5 the number of Yugoslavs in Bosanski Novi municipality is on the rise if

6 compared with the figures for 1995; right?

7 A. I completely disagree. Well, in these tables the reporting of

8 ethnicity is the same in 1999 census and 1997/1998 because it is the same

9 definition that is used. 1995 I have no idea, in the slightest idea, who

10 is a Serb, who is a Muslim, who is a Croat and who is a Yugoslav, because

11 it isn't the definition that was used in the census.

12 So because you mentioned today that whether I knew that a

13 majority of Yugoslavs were Serbs, so I assume that it is possible that

14 the RS authorities worked on the same assumption, and where there were

15 shifts between ethnicities and Yugoslavs in particular, which can be

16 clearly seen for Banja Luka, for instance.

17 Q. Am I right in thinking that here in the 1995 in the column of

18 percentages for Yugoslavs we see the percentage of 1.7, whereas the

19 estimates for 1994 and 1995 are 4.5. It is estimated that there will be

20 almost three times more Yugoslavs than before.

21 Please do not think that I am attacking you. I'm just trying to

22 establish whether the methodology was valid, and can it allow us to draw

23 conclusions about the movement of the population. I suppose that the OTP

24 will also try to establish responsibility for that.

25 Is it true that in 1995, it was 1.7, and then in 1997 and 1998 it

Page 28363

1 was 4.5?

2 A. But you have been doing exactly what you shouldn't be doing. You

3 are comparing things that are not directly comparable. And, as I said

4 earlier today, it is the intention to show the pattern in the ethnic

5 composition and the change in this pattern as estimated from different

6 sources. So I think it is wrong to compare the percentages as such. It

7 is correct to look at the pattern, how the pattern changed from 1991 in

8 1995 and in 1997.

9 The closer percentage to compare would be 1991 and 1997/1998

10 because of the same definition of ethnicity used in both cases. Even

11 though the census is an entire population not a segment, still the

12 voters' sample can be a good approximation of the entire population in

13 terms of ethnic composition.

14 JUDGE KWON: Then in terms of that pattern, how do you interpret

15 this number? Ratio rose from 1.7 to 4.5 as regard Yugoslav and others?

16 THE WITNESS: I interpret there was a decline in the Yugoslavs

17 from 5.1 per cent in 1991 to 4.5 per cent in 1997/1998.

18 JUDGE KWON: So can one now say that it rose from 1.7 in 1995 to

19 4.5 in 1997 and 1998.

20 THE WITNESS: I would be careful when saying this. Why? Because

21 it was not certain and likely it is not the fact that the Yugoslavs were

22 reported in exactly the same way in 1995 as in the other years.

23 JUDGE KWON: Then one should be also careful in comparing between

24 1991 and 1995.

25 THE WITNESS: Yes. Of course. Of course. What really matters

Page 28364

1 in this table is the population who moved out by 1993 because it is a

2 number even though this number as well will be subject to changes in the

3 definition of ethnicity.

4 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] May I continue, Excellency?

5 JUDGE KWON: Yes, yes.

6 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

7 Q. Then I don't understand what the purpose is of highlighting these

8 two percentages after the war, 1.7 in 1995, and then 4.5 in the latter

9 years if it doesn't show that the segment of Yugoslavs and others was

10 recovering in Serbian municipalities and falling in Muslim

11 municipalities.

12 Here we can see that from 1.7 it grew to 4.5, almost reaching the

13 percentage that was present in 1991; is that correct?

14 A. Well, what can I say? I can say comparing the percentages is not

15 good, is not correct, because there are differences in the methodology

16 and sources, how the percentages were obtained.

17 But for illustrative purposes of the movement of population in

18 1993 and a result of this movement in 1995, as reported by completely

19 different sources from what we used in this study, it is useful to

20 present these tables.

21 Q. Thank you. Okay. On day one we agreed that the sources were

22 different. I thought that there was no comparison between them. And

23 that, on the one hand, we had the 1991 census, and on the other, all

24 sorts of approximations and voluntarily registration for votes, and that

25 those two -- those two could not be compared. Those are apples and

Page 28365

1 pears, apples and oranges, and then you said that they were comparable

2 and now you're saying that they are comparable [as interpreted], that

3 different sources do not allow for any comparisons to be drawn, although

4 you included all that in your tables.

5 A. So, Mr. Karadzic, what do you want me to say? They are there as

6 an illustration of what others were saying about processes that were

7 happening during the war.

8 My position is that the statistics I produced are reliable source

9 for assessing of the migration during the war and changes in the ethnic

10 composition.

11 So that is the position. If you want a number, then please go to

12 my work and take a number from there because I know how this number was

13 produced and this number is reliable. About sources like this ones, I

14 wouldn't advise to use them as statistics expressing exactly of what

15 happened, but they do illustrate that things were happening in the war.

16 That's it. That is the only thing that I am saying about it.

17 JUDGE KWON: You used, Dr. Tabeau, the 1997 voters' registration

18 and you just stated the numbers you reached is a reliable one. And --

19 but at the same time you are saying that the 1997 census that statistics

20 is not 100 percent reliable. So that may be the question of

21 Mr. Karadzic.

22 Do you follow my question?

23 THE WITNESS: I believe so.

24 JUDGE KWON: Yes.

25 THE WITNESS: So it is that -- let's summarise. That the 1997

Page 28366

1 voters' register is not a 100 percent reliable source, yet I used this

2 source to produce statistics. This is how I understand the question.

3 JUDGE KWON: [Microphone not activated] Yes.

4 THE WITNESS: Of course, voters' register is not a perfect

5 source. Ideally we would like to see the next population census for

6 Bosnia and Herzegovina to work with it instead of the voters' register.

7 This census is unavailable.

8 Voters' registration, as a matter of fact, is not as good as a

9 census but it is broadly acceptable, reliable for the type of analysis in

10 this report, presented in this report, a far better source, by all means,

11 than the RS sources for 1993 and 1995. There is no doubt about it.

12 The -- the numbers in these tables that we have on the screen are

13 extremely approximate. How they were collected, for sure there was no

14 questionnaire involved. There were probably inspections in these

15 territories and rough estimates of how many people lived there. For sure

16 there were no lists of names. For sure ethnicity was taken from, I don't

17 know where. Certainly these were not respondents telling the inspectors

18 about their ethnicity.

19 So compared with the RS sources, voters' register is incomparably

20 better. That is what I'm saying. And what I am saying is knowing that

21 the RS sources are so approximate it is not good idea to get attached to

22 these numbers too much because these are very rough approximations. The

23 RS sources are good enough to tell, Look, people were moving out from

24 these territories during the war, because as of early 1993, large

25 population groups were registered to move out, and especially these were

Page 28367

1 non-Serbs who were moving out from these territories. This led to a

2 change in the ethnic composition. Already by 1995 the RS authorities

3 noted this change because this is what they put in these tables. But in

4 order to have a reliable estimate of ethnic composition, I rather would

5 take everybody to look at the results from the voters' register because

6 the estimation method was far more reliable.

7 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Can we now look at the following

8 page and let's see what the situation was in Kotor Varos, for example.

9 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

10 Q. Do we agree, Dr. Tabeau, that the absolute number of Serbs in

11 Kotor Varos remained more or less the same? We had 14.056 in 1991 and

12 1.400 [as interpreted] in 1995.

13 A. Yes.

14 Q. Thank you. In 1995, by using the estimate method, it was

15 established that there were 1800 Muslims and a thousand Croats. And that

16 was 10.7 and 6 per cent, respectively, in 1995. And now let's see how

17 that percentage continued to fall between 1995 and 1997. The number of

18 Serbs did not change meanwhile. And a possible increase in the number of

19 Serbs did not influence the increase in the percentage of Serbs. The

20 possible increase in the percentage of Serbs was influenced exclusively

21 by the population movements of Croats and Muslims; is that correct?

22 A. Well, what I see is that the share of Serbs increased from 1991

23 in 1995 and 1997 and the shares of other ethnic groups dropped. So

24 disregarding the fact that the number of Serbs remained more or less the

25 same, the other groups left, which increased the share of Serbs in the

Page 28368

1 population. And a similar picture will be seen in other municipalities

2 in this annex. In some cases, the numbers of Serbs will be higher in

3 absolute terms, but, again, I would every time look at the pattern, how

4 the ethnic composition as a whole evolved.

5 Q. And now let's look at the percentage of Yugoslavs and others in

6 Kotor Varos, a municipality that remained in Republika Srpska.

7 The participation of Yugoslavs and others rose from 2.7 to

8 3.4 per cent; right?

9 A. Yes.

10 Q. Let's conclude then. And before that, can we go to the following

11 page and look at Prijedor and that will allow me to draw some

12 conclusions.

13 Is it correct that we can see both factors here. Both of the

14 decrease in the numbers of Muslims and Croats, as well as the increase in

15 the number of Serbs from 47.000 to 61.000. In 1995 there were 3.600

16 Muslims in Prijedor and 500 Croats at the same time -- - oh, sorry, a

17 thousand Croats. And that was 5.4 per cent in the general population or

18 1.5 per cent in the sample.

19 In 1997, the participation of Croats was higher than in 1995 and

20 the number of Muslims dropped. In other words, Croats, Yugoslavs, and

21 others returned to Prijedor after the end of the war and Muslims left.

22 Would -- would you agree?

23 A. Well, my reading is different of this table. Prijedor is a mixed

24 municipality in 1991. The shares of Muslims and Serbs are comparable,

25 about 43 per cent. Others, Croats and Yugoslavs and others, play a much

Page 28369

1 less significant role. If I look at 1995 and 1997/1998, I see that this

2 is a municipality strongly dominated by the Serbs in terms of their share

3 in the population. The Muslims that were a significant ethnic group

4 before the war are not there anymore and it is consistently seen in the

5 data for 1995 and 1997/1998.

6 Moreover, if we look at 1993, for Muslim, the population that

7 moved out is 42.000 out of 49. It's a very huge number. This is what I

8 am reading from this table. And the same for Prijedor can be seen in the

9 municipal data in the annexes of my report where the population that

10 became displaced of Prijedor, Muslim population, is extremely large.

11 Q. And what about Yugoslavs? How many Yugoslavs were there in

12 Prijedor; do you remember?

13 A. Of course I don't remember. But Yugoslavs and other ethnic

14 groups reported in Annex A5 for Prijedor is 9.295. That's the number

15 from the 1991 census.

16 Q. Of which two-thirds were Yugoslavs, and one-third were others; is

17 that correct?

18 A. This is what you are saying. I can provide this share, these

19 percentages, but I have to produce them.

20 Q. Look at the 1991 census. There were 6.371 Yugoslavs and 2.600

21 others, according to that census. And among the 6.371 there were 6.000

22 Serbs in 1991 which was a large majority of the total number of Serbs.

23 6.371 on the one hand, 2.600 on the other. 2:1 ratio and this is a full

24 picture. And with all due respect, this is what we call a Communist

25 propaganda. They wanted to represent as many Serbs as possible as

Page 28370

1 Yugoslavs in order to distort the ethnic picture of the population.

2 MS. WEST: Objection as to it being a statement.

3 JUDGE KWON: What table are we looking at, Mr. ...

4 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] I'm reading from the census, from

5 the 1991 census which makes a distinction between Yugoslavs and others.

6 And in all of the municipalities you can see that there are two times

7 more Yugoslavs than others. Two-thirds of what Dr. Tabeau had under the

8 category of others were Yugoslavs. And if you are familiar with the

9 political movements in 1991 you would see that they're all Serbs. We

10 will see what the population movement was. Serbs and others returned to

11 the Serbian municipalities, whereas their number fell in the federal

12 municipalities.

13 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

14 Q. Please look at Sanski Most. Was there a fall in the number of

15 Yugoslavs and others there from 4.2? We don't have anything for 1995,

16 but we have 4.2 in 1991 and then 2.4 in 1997.

17 A. So if we look at the Sanski Most table, these percentages indeed

18 are there, 4.2 Yugoslavs and others. I would call this group is just

19 others as in my report. The percentage is 4.2, and in 1997/1998, 2.4.

20 And, again, I want to stress, I didn't separate Yugoslavs. I studied

21 them jointly with all remaining ethnicities different from the three main

22 ethnic groups and this is how this data is also here presented, and I --

23 I didn't study how many Yugoslavs proportionally are there in this joint

24 category, but I don't think it is relevant for -- for -- for -- for our

25 discussion here because what matters is, as a matter of fact, the -- the

Page 28371

1 changes related to the three main ethnic groups.

2 Q. It is our position that this is very relevant because among

3 Yugoslavs there were a lot of Serbs and that changes in the Serbian

4 community are not presented as they should be because Yugoslavs were

5 estimated wrongly and merged with all the others who were a big minority.

6 It would have been correct, Dr. Tabeau, if you said Yugoslavs and then

7 joined others to them because the participation of the latter was

8 smaller. Instead, you merged Yugoslavs with others, and that's how you

9 eliminated a huge number of Serbs from your calculations.

10 A. I -- I can assure you I did not eliminate the Serbs from my

11 calculation. I just processed the data according to how respondents

12 defined themselves in terms of ethnic affiliations. Yugoslavs are

13 reported, exactly as I am saying, Yugoslavs, and this is how I treated

14 them in the analysis disregarding what you think, were they the

15 Yugoslavs. You were saying a majority were Serbs, but it is not what I

16 read from the census records. Yugoslavs are Yugoslavs.

17 Q. Very well. Very well. But why didn't you represent them

18 separately from others, because the 1991 census recognises them which you

19 don't do? In addition to having unreliable sources in 1995 and 1997,

20 sources of different orders, we compound things even more by merging

21 Yugoslavs with others, and, thus, we make any conclusion processed even

22 more difficult than it should be.

23 JUDGE KWON: Mr. Karadzic, I think we heard enough as to the

24 issue and notion of Yugoslav and others. It's for you to make submission

25 later on, based upon this table and evidence of Dr. Tabeau.

Page 28372

1 Why don't we move on.

2 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

3 JUDGE KWON: Just one question for you, Mr. Karadzic.

4 You -- several times you ask the witness as to the changes or

5 causes of -- in the ratio of population between 1995, 1997. How are they

6 relevant to your case, Mr. Karadzic?

7 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Excellency, there was a period of

8 peace during which there was no enforcement or coercion, and there were

9 demographic changes which were much bigger in relative figures than

10 during war time.

11 JUDGE KWON: My question is how it is relevant to your

12 indictment, the changes between 1995 and 1997?

13 Or, Mr. Robinson, yes.

14 MR. ROBINSON: Yes, Mr. President, I think it is only relevant in

15 the sense that this witness has used 1997 demographic figures. If she

16 hadn't done that, it would not be relevant at all. But those figures

17 necessarily include movements that took place after Dayton and other

18 developments. I think that's the point of talking about that period

19 between 1995 and 1997.

20 JUDGE KWON: Thank you, Mr. Robinson.

21 Yes, please continue, Mr. Karadzic.

22 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

23 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

24 Q. And now can we deal with comparisons. Let's compare those

25 municipalities which belong to the Karadzic case area in

Page 28373

1 Bosnia and Herzegovina.

2 Let us look at Table 2B1. I apologise. Image B2.1.

3 MS. WEST: That's 102.

4 THE ACCUSED: Next page, I suppose.

5 THE WITNESS: It's page 100; the previous page. Yeah.

6 No.

7 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Then it's the previous one

8 probably.

9 THE WITNESS: Page 100.

10 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

11 Q. Dr. Tabeau, please help us understand these graphs pertaining to

12 population movements.

13 The first table on the left -- or, rather, that image speaks of

14 the share of the Serbs in the population as well as of Muslims and

15 Croats, right, in 1991 and 1997? So we have 1997 marked with these

16 lines; right?

17 A. Right.

18 Q. So, in Bosnia-Herzegovina, as a whole, the number of Serbs in

19 1997 was mildly on the increase, also, the number of Muslims. Whereas,

20 the number of Croats is slightly declining; is that right?

21 A. Yes. This is ethnic composition but these are not absolute

22 numbers. These are fractions, percentages, that are shown for the entire

23 territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Yes.

24 Q. Thank you. The next one is in the area that is called the

25 Karadzic case area, 1997. There is a certain increase in the number of

Page 28374

1 Serbs and a certain decline in the share of Muslims and a decline in the

2 number of Croats; right?

3 A. Right.

4 Q. If we look at these graphs, Dr. Tabeau, does this seem fairly

5 similar to you?

6 A. Yes.

7 Q. Thank you.

8 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Can we please take a look at the

9 one further down.

10 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

11 Q. In the part of Bosnia-Herzegovina that belonged to

12 Republika Srpska, we have a further increase - relative - in the number

13 of Serbs and the number of Muslims was decreased by some 60 per cent,

14 right -- sorry the number of Serbs compared to 1991 and 1995 and then

15 compared to 1997, there's an increase in the number of Serbs; right?

16 A. Right.

17 Q. Thank you. And we also see the situation as far as the Croats

18 are concerned. Can we have a look at the next one now.

19 Now the numbers of the Serbs in the Karadzic case area, so that

20 is less that Republika Srpska, as such. Do we agree that in the Karadzic

21 case area that belonged to Republika Srpska the number of Muslims -- or,

22 rather, the share of Muslims is somewhat greater. Can you please explain

23 this to us?

24 A. What can I explain? These are two areas. One is the entire

25 country and Karadzic case area are 27 municipalities. For these two

Page 28375

1 areas, the same type of statistics were compiled and are shown here on

2 these charts.

3 There are slight differences, indeed, in the number -- in the

4 share of Muslims in Republika Srpska compared with the entire Bosnia and

5 Herzegovina. So the share of Muslims in the Karadzic case area is very

6 slightly higher than in the entire Bosnia, which is absolutely possible,

7 because this is ethnic composition percentages, so it's possible. I

8 wouldn't say that the difference is really very significant here. What

9 is striking in case of Republika Srpska is that the share of Serbs

10 increased very significantly in both areas, in the entire Bosnia and

11 Herzegovina -- in the RS part of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the RS part

12 of Karadzic case area. And the opposite is seen, the lower charts

13 showing the Federation part of Bosnia and Federation part of Karadzic

14 case area, then we see that the share of Serbs declined and the share of

15 Muslims increased.

16 Q. Now you're talking about the last one on the right; right? So

17 what was under Serb control. The Karadzic case area, that is. Once it

18 came under the control of the Federation after Dayton, the share of

19 Muslims in that area is over 80 per cent and that is more than in 1991;

20 right?

21 A. On next page, there are numbers -- well, percentages shown. So

22 for Muslims in 1997 in the FBiH part of Karadzic case area, we see

23 86.4 per cent.

24 Q. Thank you. Do we agree then that in peacetime, in the territory

25 that was under Serb control, changes occurred, demographic changes in the

Page 28376

1 following way: Serbs practically disappeared from areas that they had

2 controlled up until Dayton; and the number of Muslims rose to

3 80 per cent, so there was exchange of population in peacetime. There was

4 an exchange of population or population movements in peacetime.

5 Can we go back to the previous page. They're practically no

6 Serbs in the territory that used to be under their control. But am I

7 right if I say that? Am I right if I say there are no Serbs left,

8 although they had had it under their control? But, ultimately, it came

9 to belong to the Federation and then there were no Serbs left, whereas

10 there are more Muslims than there were in 1991?

11 A. No. First of all, you said changes were happening after the

12 Dayton Agreement was signed in the peacetime. So I can't agree with this

13 because we already had a very long discussions this morning about changes

14 that were happening in the course of the war. In 1993 already large

15 numbers of the population moved out from municipalities in the Karadzic

16 case area.

17 But, indeed, what we see in these charts is -- is a summary of

18 how the changes were happening. So from RS part, non-Serbs were moving

19 out, and from the FBiH part, the Serbs were moving out. That is what

20 summarised in Figure B2.1 and we see it very clearly for both, for RS and

21 FBiH areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina and for RS and FBiH part of the

22 Karadzic case area. That is the picture that is obtained from voters'

23 register but similar charts were produced by other organisations,

24 including the UNHCR.

25 Q. Please, let us now focus on the second and sixth graph.

Page 28377

1 In the second one, the entire Karadzic case area is included, in

2 the Federation and Republika Srpska. And we see there an increase, not

3 that sharp an increase in the number of Serbs and not that sharp a

4 decrease in the number of Muslims. So that would be the area that was

5 under Serb control. However, not all of it came to belong to them.

6 Now the area that was under Serb control and that came to belong

7 to the Federation, that is graph 6, we see a drastic decline in the

8 number of Serbs, a significant increase in the number of Croats, and a

9 drop in the number of Croats, and so on.

10 Is that right?

11 A. Yes.

12 Q. Thank you.

13 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Your Excellencies, how much time

14 will I have? That is what I'd like to ask.

15 JUDGE KWON: How much do you need, Mr. Karadzic, more?

16 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Well, I believe that I'm not even

17 close. I have all of today, don't I? That's the amount of time that you

18 had allocated to me, or perhaps there's 15 or 20 minutes left. Could Ram

19 help, please.

20 JUDGE KWON: I was of the impression you may not need all of

21 that. But, so far you have used four hours and 40 minute, which means

22 you have this session and some time -- an hour in the next session.

23 Probably you can finish by the end of today. It's better to conclude

24 Dr. Tabeau's evidence, including re-examination, by today. But we'll

25 see.

Page 28378

1 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you. I'll do my best. Thank

2 you.

3 Could we now please take a look at 2A that has to do with

4 Srebrenica.

5 It's page 80 in my papers. But perhaps we should just take a

6 look at 2A, the results for Srebrenica.

7 MS. WEST: Is Mr. Karadzic talking about Srebrenica internally

8 displaced people or the Srebrenica report because I don't think we know

9 what report we're talking about here.

10 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Results for Srebrenica: Share of

11 the Muslims in the population of Srebrenica. And then after that is

12 Table 2A.1.

13 THE WITNESS: Page 68.

14 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Could we please move onto the next

15 page for a moment, page 69.

16 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

17 Q. Am I right if I say that towards the top where it says Table

18 A2.2, you say that there's a distinction between an internally displaced

19 persons who lived elsewhere in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1997 and

20 refugees, persons who lived abroad in 1997?

21 Did you apply the same criterion into those 27 municipalities, or

22 nine municipalities, and all of Bosnia and Herzegovina, or is it believed

23 that only the people of Srebrenica lived abroad?

24 A. Well, all municipalities were subject to the same methodology.

25 But for Srebrenica, here in this annex, more detailed results are also

Page 28379

1 included.

2 Q. Thank you. But this is what I'm interested in: For those 27, or

3 those nine municipalities, or for all municipalities for that matter, in

4 all of Bosnia-Herzegovina, did you establish the number of persons who

5 were abroad?

6 A. The same analysis was completed for all municipalities as well,

7 for the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina.

8 Q. Then I must have been inattentive because in other

9 municipalities, I did not see that you singled them out in this way,

10 saying who lived abroad. If you help me, I will be glad to accept that.

11 A. Well, we didn't present separate figures on internal displacement

12 and external displacement, that is the refugees for all municipalities,

13 in the same way as for Srebrenica. It is just an sample. Srebrenica is

14 an example included in Annex A2.

15 Q. Well, that is exactly what I asked about. What about the other

16 municipalities, as far as that segment is concerned? The same

17 methodology was not used for all municipalities, right, or not all

18 results were shown according to the same methodology?

19 A. The results shown in the report is a selection of major figures.

20 If the need will be, then if you are interested in refugees, also these

21 figures can be produced separately.

22 Q. But for Srebrenica, we can get the number of refugees aboard and

23 we cannot do that for other municipalities; right?

24 A. Not right now, but in Slobodan Milosevic report there is a

25 selection of more municipalities presented in exactly same way as

Page 28380

1 Srebrenica, yes.

2 Well, I -- I don't think it is really crucial to make this

3 distinction between internal displacement and refugees, but if needed and

4 essential, these figures can be additionally provided.

5 Q. Thank you. Very well.

6 Now that we're op this page -- actually, it would be better to go

7 back to the first page, if possible, please.

8 Please let us take a look at Table A2.1. In 1991, in Srebrenica,

9 there was a population of over 29.000; isn't that right? And

10 21.300-something were Muslims --

11 THE INTERPRETER: The interpreters cannot keep up with figures

12 that are being read at this pace.

13 JUDGE KWON: The interpreters cannot catch up with your speed if

14 you read that fast.

15 Could you repeat.

16 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

17 Q. Well, we see the numbers here, don't we? The total population in

18 1991 was 29.198, as established in the census. Out of that figure,

19 two-thirds were Muslims; one-third were Serbs; and almost 600 others;

20 whereas, Croats accounted for 35 persons.

21 Now applying the methods -- or, rather, the information that you

22 had collected by different sources for different purposes, isn't that

23 right, the total number of inhabitants in 1997 was estimated at 7.422;

24 7 Muslims, 7.169 Serbs. Do we agree that --

25 JUDGE KWON: Mr. Karadzic, where did you get that idea of total

Page 28381

1 number of inhabitants in 1997 having followed Dr. Tabeau's evidence so

2 far?

3 Dr. Tabeau?

4 THE WITNESS: It is a sample of those registered in 1997 in the

5 municipality of Srebrenica.

6 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] But, Your Excellency, here in the

7 first column, line 2, it says: All. And then it says 7.442. That

8 cannot be a sample. That can only be the total population. If this is

9 just a sample, what would be the total number of inhabitants?

10 THE WITNESS: If I may say, the "all" refers to all ethnic

11 groups. That is the indication who is reported, "all ethnicities"

12 jointly. But, of course, the 1997 numbers are obtained from the voters'

13 register. That means it is a sample, not the size of the population in

14 1997.

15 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

16 Q. Please, if 7.442 is the -- a sample, what is the total number of

17 inhabitants in 1997?

18 A. I already said today, I don't know. I don't have this number. I

19 don't have the overall size of the population in 1997.

20 Q. How then, if we look at column 1, line 1, how can that be linked

21 up to column 2? What is the point of placing these numbers one next to

22 the other?

23 A. The point is that we can calculate - and rightly so -

24 percentages. That means we can obtain the ethnic makeup for 1991 and, as

25 well, for 1997. For this, we work for 1997 with a sample data and the

Page 28382

1 percentages calculated are in the second part of the same table.

2 Percentages can be compared between 1991 and 1997. That is justified and

3 correct. Not the absolute numbers though.

4 JUDGE KWON: How shall we read the third and the last row? 1991,

5 1997 change.

6 THE WITNESS: That this is relative difference that we discussed

7 yesterday. So 73.2 is the per cent of Muslims in 1991 --

8 JUDGE KWON: No, the last one.

9 THE WITNESS: Yes, that is what I'm going to. And in 1997, the

10 percent of Muslims is 0.1. So the difference between the two, 01 minus

11 73.2, divided by 73.2, makes 99.9 with a minus. Is the change in the

12 share of Muslims between 1997 and 1991, expressed in relative terms.

13 JUDGE KWON: How shall we read the next number: Plus 290.4.

14 THE WITNESS: It is 96.3 per cent of Serbs, minus 24.7 per cent,

15 divided by 24.7 per cent.

16 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

17 Q. And there are three times more Croats; right? Plus 281.

18 A. Yes, this is what it says here. Yep.

19 Q. Now, let us go back to the first two lines. Are these absolute

20 numbers?

21 A. Yes, these are absolute numbers, for 1991 and 1997 in the second

22 row.

23 Q. Is it correct that in 1997, there were about 50 less Serbs than

24 in 1991?

25 A. Hmm. We just discussed that 1997 is a sample and 1991 is the

Page 28383

1 overall size of the population.

2 So what we can do we can think of comparing 7.169 with all

3 ethnicities number, which is 7.442 which give us 96.3 per cent of Serbs

4 in 1997 population.

5 Q. I don't know, Dr. Tabeau, how you can say that these are absolute

6 numbers. How did you --

7 JUDGE KWON: Mr. Karadzic, I think, Mr. Robinson, now, I take it

8 you understood Dr. Tabeau's point. All the number, absolute numbers in

9 relation to 1997 are related to voters' register.

10 I don't think Mr. Karadzic has understood that.

11 MR. ROBINSON: I'm sure he understands that, that that's the only

12 number that -- otherwise any discussion of the report is meaningless

13 because that's the only number she used to compare the 1991 results. So

14 even though we all understand that that is a sample or it's not just

15 precise as the census, it's the basis of the discussion of her report.

16 So I think he understands that very clearly.

17 JUDGE KWON: He may continue this same question with respect to

18 every table.

19 Shall we take the break now and then ...

20 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] That would be fine. I just wanted

21 to take a look at the table for a minute, the next one, but if you wish,

22 we can do it after the break.

23 Table A2.2.

24 JUDGE KWON: Very well.

25 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

Page 28384

1 Q. It has to do with 1997 voters originating from Srebrenica, right?

2 And then in Srebrenica, there are -- actually, they're there in 1997.

3 Can you explain this to us, 3.237. These are voters who are still in

4 Srebrenica; right?

5 A. Yes. This is the voters who were still in Srebrenica in 1997.

6 Well, this table is a different type of statistics than what we

7 discussed previously. In order to define population movements and decide

8 who moved, who didn't, it is necessary to trace in the voters' register

9 the entire population who originally lived in a given municipality.

10 It's, in this case, Srebrenica.

11 So in the voters' register, there was a total of 13.891 voters

12 who used, in 1991, to live in Srebrenica. That's the total, 13.891.

13 Q. 10.654 out of that number voted for Srebrenica, outside

14 Srebrenica; right?

15 A. I don't know and don't want do know how they voted for which

16 municipality. I only know that 10.654 registered to vote in a different

17 area than the Srebrenica municipality, where they used to live in 1991.

18 And only 3.237 of the original 1991 population of Srebrenica municipality

19 registered in Srebrenica. As we see, almost all of them were Serbs.

20 JUDGE KWON: Just a second, Dr. Tabeau.

21 How does this number square with the previous number we saw in

22 the previous page, if you remember, the number of 7.442?

23 THE WITNESS: Yes, I was waiting for this question. It's a

24 different population. It's a different population in the sense that

25 voters who registered in certain places can be regrouped in various ways.

Page 28385

1 In the previous table, we have the number of all those who were

2 identified themselves, registered themselves, in Srebrenica. All of

3 them. Not originally living in Srebrenica, all of them. There are

4 newcomers in Srebrenica. So one group of population goes, and another

5 one comes.

6 So if we count all of them in Srebrenica in 1997, then we have

7 the number, 7.442. This number comprises the number of 3.237 from

8 Table A2.2. But the 13.000 is a different population. Different in the

9 sense that voters here are regrouped according to the place of residence

10 in 1991, which obviously, for a large number of them, was different in

11 1997. This is 10.654.

12 So these two perspectives are there in the report, and it is not

13 a mistake that in Table 2.2, we have the 13.000 related to Srebrenica,

14 and a different number in Table 2.1.

15 JUDGE KWON: Thank you. Just a second --

16 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] We can take the break now,

17 Excellency.

18 JUDGE KWON: Yes, Mr. Karadzic.

19 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] We can take the break now, and then

20 we can pursue this topic after the break.

21 JUDGE KWON: Yes. I would like you to organise your -- the

22 remainder of your cross-examination to be concluded in an hour's time in

23 the next session.

24 We'll resume at 1.30.

25 --- Luncheon recess taken at 12.33 p.m.

Page 28386

1 --- On resuming at 1.32 p.m.

2 JUDGE KWON: Yes, Mr. Karadzic.

3 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you. I would just briefly

4 deal with Srebrenica and then we will move to Sarajevo.

5 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

6 Q. Let us look at Table A2.2. According to that table, there is an

7 estimate which shouldn't be an estimate but, rather, an established fact

8 that 9.726 Muslims registered to vote in the 1991 elections; is that

9 right?

10 A. I think that there is a number of 9.730 Muslims have been

11 identified, who, initially lived in 1991 in Srebrenica municipality.

12 Q. But they were registered to vote in the 1997 elections. Look at

13 the title of the table under A2.2.

14 A. This is what I just said. 9.730 Muslims from originally

15 Srebrenica municipality registered to vote in 1997 elections.

16 Q. Thank you. They registered where?

17 A. Four of them, in Srebrenica; and 9.726 at other locations.

18 Q. Thank you. In other words, they were not represented in those

19 places where they registered; but, rather, in that place or those places

20 where they wanted to vote and where they voted.

21 A. I'm not sure what is the question. I just confirm that 9.730

22 from Srebrenica municipality who used to live in Srebrenica municipality,

23 according to 1991 census, this group of Muslims from Srebrenica

24 registered partly in Srebrenica, only four of them, and the rest of them,

25 9.726, at other places.

Page 28387

1 Q. For voting in Srebrenica; right?

2 A. I didn't check what -- for what municipality they voted. I am

3 not interested. I am interested in where they registered to vote: Four

4 of them in Srebrenica; 9.726 not in Srebrenica.

5 Q. But they were registered elsewhere; right?

6 A. Elsewhere means not in the Srebrenica municipality.

7 Q. Thank you. Does it also comprises [as interpreted] the so-called

8 third countries, either in Europe or overseas, in America?

9 A. Yes. We can move to Table A2.3, on page 71.

10 So in the first table A2.3a, we see for Muslims the overall

11 total, 9.730 in the last column. Of this number four were located in the

12 Srebrenica municipality and therefore are considered to be not displaced.

13 The rest is falling under two categories. There is 8.002 of IDPs, that

14 is internally displaced persons, and that 1.724 in the next column are

15 the refugees from Srebrenica in third countries other than Bosnia and

16 Herzegovina.

17 Q. And of that number in Serbia, in Bosnia-Herzegovina, in

18 Montenegro, in Europe, and in America, you think that only that many were

19 refugees or only that many registered to vote?

20 A. Well, this is the registered voters, of course, and it is a

21 sample, not the complete population of refugees in third countries from

22 Srebrenica. So it's a small group, very small group. And most of them

23 were outside the region of the former Yugoslavia, as shown in Table A2.3c

24 the last table on this page.

25 Q. Thank you. Did you perhaps notice that the participation of

Page 28388

1 Serbs in percentages among the displaced, those who died, and so on and

2 so forth, equals to the participation of Serbs in the overall population,

3 and that in Muslims, that number is somewhat higher on account of the

4 fact that it is somewhat smaller among Croats?

5 A. Well, I think you are taking here a shortcut, speaking of those

6 who died. So far, we haven't discussed any deaths at all. So I don't

7 really know what are you referring to.

8 Q. I'm actually implying all the suffering, including displacement

9 and other things. Did you notice, did you try to find out how many Serbs

10 suffered through the war, and what was their representation in that

11 number with regard to the representation of the Serbs in the overall

12 population?

13 A. If you are referring to rates of suffering, as you call it, by

14 ethnic group, all I can offer you is this report, which, actually,

15 doesn't contain any rates, just numbers, minimum numbers and certain

16 percentages describing this number, the estimated number, in relative

17 terms. I have made a number of other reports on victims in all these

18 reports. I tried to quantify numbers of victims, again, in most cases,

19 this would be minimum numbers for all ethnic groups, including the Serbs.

20 I think that is all I can offer you, but you wouldn't like to

21 engage in a discussion that would lead to comparing the suffering of

22 ethnic groups among themselves. I don't think -- I wouldn't like to do

23 that.

24 Q. Very well. Can we now look at Table 1.BH. This is the

25 percentage of the population, and we're talking somewhere on page 70.

Page 28389

1 MS. WEST: I think this is 66.

2 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

3 Q. So the percentage of given ethnic groups in the population of

4 Bosnia and Herzegovina status as of 1991 and 1997.

5 Help us understand this. We're looking at the population as it

6 was in 1991 and then what you call the sample and, in my view, this is a

7 percentage that was obtained based on the sample as it was in 1997.

8 Do we agree, can we agree that there were three and a half

9 million adults and there were about 1.150.000 Serbs?

10 A. Can I have the page number? Because I can't see on the screen

11 all the numbers. Then I can find it in my report.

12 MS. WEST: Page 65.

13 THE WITNESS: Well, you were saying there were 2.565.000,

14 approximately, all ethnicities population in 1991, of which 1.147.900,

15 so 148.000 almost, were Serbs.

16 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

17 Q. Those are all the people who were born before the year 1980;

18 right?

19 A. Right.

20 Q. Thank you. What is the meaning of the next absolute figure of

21 1.800.000 of all ethnicities? That would be a sample of the total

22 population of Bosnia and Herzegovina, about one-half of the actual total

23 population; right?

24 A. Yes. This is the voters' records from 1997 elections that were

25 used in the analysis for Bosnia and Herzegovina. This is all

Page 28390

1 ethnicities; 1.800.000. 1.8 million.

2 Q. What would be the total participation in that? How did you

3 arrive at the figure that there were 3 per cent more Serbs in Bosnia and

4 Herzegovina? You say that the participation of Serbs rose by

5 3.1 per cent in Bosnia-Herzegovina; right?

6 A. It would be helpful if you would tell me exactly where I am

7 saying this. I -- I can't -- I don't understand.

8 Q. Line 1 is about the share of Serbs in the overall population in

9 1991 and the sample in 1997. And you say that the number of Serbs rose

10 by 3.1 percentile points, or 9.7 per cents?

11 A. Yes, that is correct. I can see it now.

12 Q. How did you arrive at that?

13 A. I thought we discussed the methodology at length earlier during

14 my testimony, at several occasions. So I don't think I really need to

15 repeat all this again.

16 JUDGE KWON: Doctor, to understand the context, where did

17 0.7 million go? Because I remember the total number of registered in

18 1997 was 2.5 million.

19 THE WITNESS: Yes, that is correct. But here we are talking

20 about the matched records exclusively, so this number, 2 and a half

21 million is, of course, lower.

22 JUDGE KWON: Thank you.

23 THE WITNESS: And the percentage, the 32.2, from the census, and

24 the 35.3, are just the shares of the Serb population in both years. So

25 what more can I say about it?

Page 28391

1 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

2 Q. But look at Muslims. We have 42.2 per cent and then we have an

3 increase to 45.5 per cent accounting for 2.3 percentage points, and in

4 your analysis, that was 7.7 per cent more. And all that at the expense

5 of Croats whose percentage or share fell from 17.7 to 13.4 per cent. And

6 the others, the other ethnicities also lost in numbers.

7 A. I still don't know what -- what is the question.

8 Q. I just wanted to see how can this table be of benefit when we are

9 looking at the movement the population.

10 Do you know what part of the territory in Bosnia and Herzegovina

11 was controlled by the Serbian side during the war? Do you know that the

12 surface of that territory accounted for more than 70 per cent of the

13 total territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina at times?

14 A. Now, this is your claim. I -- I didn't produce these kind of

15 numbers in these reports.

16 Q. Thank you.

17 Can we now look at the third table in here, 3BH.

18 Help us, please, to understand. Is this an estimate, according

19 to which all there were about -- or exactly 1.306.000 displaced persons

20 and refugees and that 406.000 to 410.000 of them were Serbs?

21 A. Yes, that is the correct reading of this table.

22 Q. Thank you. Now I'm going to tell you that in the DP population

23 that was 31.4 per cent, whereas there was 32 per cent of the Serbs in the

24 overall population. I wanted to ask you that. I made my calculation and

25 I'm asking you whether you noticed that the share of Serbs among the

Page 28392

1 displaced persons and refugees more or less corresponds in the -- to the

2 share of Serbs in the overall population.

3 Did you notice that?

4 A. Well, it might. I -- I -- and -- what -- what does it mean?

5 Q. Please, I'm -- again, I'm not attacking you. I am on trial here

6 because the Serbian side allegedly prosecuted [as interpreted] all the

7 others, and I want to see the entire picture. Let's look at the Muslims.

8 Among the same number of displaced persons, there are 42.4 per cent of

9 Muslims, whereas the share of Muslims in the overall population was 44

10 per cent; right?

11 A. Again, it might be so. And I don't feel attacked, Mr. Karadzic.

12 I don't take your questions as being attacked. I try to answer your

13 questions, but who said that the losses, or displacement in this case, of

14 each ethnic group have to be proportional to the size of this group. It

15 might be proportional or not, depending on what happened. The purpose of

16 my report this -- on municipalities is to provide numbers of displaced

17 persons, in terms of both minimum numbers and estimated, overall numbers,

18 and that is what we see, estimate, in the Table 3BH, for the entire

19 country. And that is all what I'm saying. I have the numbers and

20 whether they are proportional or not is a different thing here.

21 Q. Thank you. Dr. Tabeau, you are testifying in a criminal matter

22 concerned with establishing my guilt. Are you -- you were right -- you

23 would be right if you were working on behalf of a government. But I have

24 to drive them -- the matter home and I am trying to show to you that the

25 shares of Muslims, Croats, and Serbs in the overall population are the

Page 28393

1 same as their shares in the -- in the population of displaced persons.

2 Let's look at the Croats. Their number is about 1.300.000.

3 Actually, the overall population is 1.300.000, and there are about

4 18 per cent Croats. And you will remember that the participation or

5 share of Croats in the overall population was also 18 per cent?

6 A. And? If it was?

7 Q. It is my thesis, Dr. Tabeau, that what happened over there was a

8 civil war. It was not that the Serbs persecuted others and nothing

9 happened to the Serbs and everything happened to the others. You will

10 realise that everything is proportionate here. There is always a good

11 proportion.

12 JUDGE KWON: I think Dr. Tabeau has given her answer already and

13 how to interpret and how to make your submission it is for you to do

14 later on and it is ultimately for the Chamber.

15 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] That's correct, Excellency. Thank

16 you. However, you would be right in saying later perhaps or asking me

17 why I did not present my -- that interpretation of figures for

18 Dr. Tabeau, and this is what I am doing, in order to prevent that.

19 JUDGE KWON: I intervened because you asked for the causes of

20 this displacement.

21 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

22 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

23 Q. And now, let's move onto Sarajevo.

24 You mentioned several things that concern the criminal, legal

25 qualification or perhaps political qualification, and so on and so forth,

Page 28394

1 and let me ask you this: Did you establish that Sarajevo was under

2 siege?

3 Did you do it yourself or did you take over that qualification

4 from others?

5 A. I didn't establish or I didn't work with the qualification that

6 Sarajevo was under siege. I just used a survey conducted by others to

7 produce numbers of victims.

8 Q. But you said that Sarajevo was under siege. Are you saying that

9 Sarajevo was under siege or will you agree with me that Sarajevo was a

10 city divided, not Leningrad, but, rather, a Beirut?

11 A. I would suggest to go to footnote 1 in the first Sarajevo report,

12 Karadzic report, which the term "siege" is used to refer to events in

13 Sarajevo as they become popularly known.

14 Q. Well, I must fight what people see as a notorious facts.

15 Let's move on.

16 Did you mention the fact that victims in Sarajevo were victims of

17 terror?

18 A. It was one of the conclusions that, most likely, yes, there was a

19 terror campaign against, in particular, civilian victims in Sarajevo.

20 Q. This calls for a bit of analysis. You said that you arrived at

21 that conclusion when you applied a formula on the proportion of civilian

22 casualties on the one hand and military casualties on the other; right?

23 A. Yes. These two were compared.

24 Q. Thank you. This proportion, or, rather, this formula, is it the

25 same when it comes to international conflicts and when it comes to

Page 28395

1 internal conflicts or civil wars?

2 A. Well, I don't know why would be this relevant, what kind of

3 conclusions can be drawn from this.

4 Q. I'm kindly asking you to tell me just this: Is this a single

5 formula and a single proportion that is equally applicable to

6 international conflicts as well? Yes or no. Both to international

7 conflicts and civil wars, is it equally applicable?

8 A. Well, I think that it is a part of the law of war, that civilians

9 need to be protected in any conflict. So equally, as well in the

10 international conflict or internal civil war, civilians are a protected

11 group of the population during any armed conflict.

12 Q. We're not disputing that. What I'm interested in is: When you

13 draw a conclusion that more civilians were killed than collateral damage

14 as such would be permissible, did you have in mind international

15 conflicts as well, and did you think that the same criterion applies to

16 them, or no?

17 A. I didn't discuss the collateral damage explicitly as such in my

18 reports. I did a sample analysis in which I compared the number of

19 killed civilians with the number of killed soldiers. As exactly the same

20 thing is with the collateral damage, there is no prescription, no exact

21 number that could be used as a reference standard in any court

22 proceedings to tell what is the cut-off point beyond which we -- we don't

23 speak anymore about the collateral damage. The same refers to the work I

24 provided on Sarajevo, so there are no prescriptions and reference

25 standards, but the common understanding tells us if the number of killed

Page 28396

1 civilians are much higher than those of killed soldiers and for -- on

2 many days during the combat activities, then something is wrong with this

3 fact.

4 Q. Did I misunderstand, that there exists some kind of coefficient

5 which indicates whether those were accidental civilian victims or

6 intentional victims? Is there any way to establish exactly the ratio

7 between the killed and wounded civilians and killed and wounded soldiers.

8 Am I right?

9 A. I said there exist no reference standard as such to be used in

10 analysis like the one I -- I completed. And in court proceedings, it is

11 a term, collateral damage, or, you know, disproportional killings,

12 civilians in relation to soldiers. It is a phenomenon that needs to be

13 carefully studied and decided upon what is in the results of an analysis.

14 Q. Are you trying to say that the coefficient that you applied when

15 you were deciding when the number of victims was excessive, was it

16 something that you, yourself, created or did you adopt it from somewhere

17 else?

18 But, first of all, refresh our memory. Did you say that a

19 coefficient is to be applied and that if it is less than one or more than

20 one it means something; right?

21 A. What I did -- I didn't create a coefficient. I studied two

22 variables: One was killing of civilians observed day by day and the same

23 with killings of soldiers. It was just a comparison of the two I

24 completed in order to draw certain conclusions. This kind of comparisons

25 are often made also in other conflicts but it doesn't mean that we have a

Page 28397

1 coefficient here. It is a simple comparison of two types of killings:

2 One of civilians, one of soldiers, and that has been done much more

3 frequently than just me.

4 Second, what I said, that there is no threshold for collateral

5 damage or for the number of killed civilians per one soldier. That is

6 all I said.

7 Q. But did you explain to us the coefficient that is using Index 1?

8 A. Well, it is not a coefficient. It just if you divide one by

9 another, then the value might be one, might be lower than one, or higher

10 by one. That's all I am saying. If it is one, then the number of

11 civilians is exactly the same as the number of killed soldiers, and

12 that's it.

13 Q. And who set this standard?

14 A. This is how it is. If you divide two by two, the number is one.

15 Exactly the same if you add two plus two, the result is four. There is

16 no rule, no regulation, no coefficient. This is how it is. You divide

17 one number by another. If they are the same, the result is one.

18 Q. All right. And then in certain armed conflicts, there is

19 something that is described as acceptable number of victims or collateral

20 damage, et cetera. And tell me, what is the ratio between the killed

21 soldiers and the killed civilians that does not constitute terrorising a

22 population which is, if I may say so, an acceptable collateral damage?

23 When does it reach certain point of ratio between the military

24 and civilian victims when it is not acceptable?

25 A. I can't give you such a point. However, I -- you are simplifying

Page 28398

1 my work, especially the work presented in the Karadzic Sarajevo report.

2 I have done much more than just calculating the ratio and telling that

3 the ratio is excessively high on more than 30 per cent of days. That was

4 just the beginning of the analysis I completed.

5 If I can take you to the report --

6 Q. We'll come to that later. We'll come to that. I'm only

7 interested in the basics.

8 You deduce that the civilian casualties among the residents of

9 Sarajevo were the result of terror. I am asking you now to explain the

10 criteria to us.

11 And I also wanted to ask you about the methodology. Firstly, is

12 the ratio the same in international conflicts and in civil wars? Is it

13 the same in urban fighting or in fighting in open battle-fields? So if

14 you propose some assertion, have you to explain to us how you arrived at

15 that; and can you tell us which is this permissible line that has to be

16 crossed in order for this to be considered terrorising?

17 A. Well, you are right that if would be very useful to study this

18 ratio in a number of conflicts. You are absolutely right. But this is a

19 separate project which would be taking quite some resources as acquiring

20 information, detailed information, and reliable information, about

21 killings of civilians as part of armed conflict, is a challenge, I think.

22 So what I did is much simpler than a study that would be broad in

23 placing Sarajevo in a context of several other conflicts, and I explained

24 the methodology in the report, and specifically so. So I can tell about

25 what I did, and my conclusion related to terror is related to, first of

Page 28399

1 all, causes of death of the killed civilians. There is a specific

2 section in the report, Karadzic report and other Sarajevo reports, in

3 which causes are expressed in terms of shelling and sniping, and other

4 shooting. And a large per cent of killings was because of these causes.

5 If there is no similarity and correspondence between killings of

6 civilians and soldiers with time, and we know that soldiers are killed

7 because of combat because they are part of the combat, so what would

8 be -- what would be the reason for the killings of civilians is if causes

9 of death are shelling, sniping, other shooting?

10 So I think there is a very good reason that I said it was most

11 likely a terror campaign, in which arms were involved that were killing

12 civilians in Sarajevo.

13 Q. In other words, you are trying to say that the Serbs preferred to

14 shoot at the civilians rather than at the Muslim soldiers.

15 A. Sir, I am not discussing the combat activities. I'm not

16 discussing the army, the Serb army, the Bosniak army. I am telling what

17 is the observation from the data used for Sarajevo killings.

18 JUDGE KWON: Doctor, yesterday or in last week, you stated that

19 civilians were deliberately targeted.

20 THE WITNESS: Yes.

21 JUDGE KWON: Do you remember having said that?

22 THE WITNESS: Yes.

23 JUDGE KWON: What would that mean? So the soldiers intentionally

24 tried to kill civilians?

25 THE WITNESS: I have no information about the intentions. I

Page 28400

1 can't say about the intentions.

2 JUDGE KWON: Because deliberate has some connotation in legal

3 sense.

4 How do you interpret that word, deliberate, deliberately

5 targeting the civilians?

6 THE WITNESS: The meaning for me, deliberate, was not related to

7 combat activities. Causes of death being related to using arms against

8 civilians.

9 JUDGE KWON: So would be differentiate "deliberate" with -- I

10 will -- strike that.

11 So how would that -- that meaning deliberate shelling or

12 deliberate targeting differentiate with -- from, for example, reckless

13 shelling, indiscriminate shelling, or disproportional shelling, in your

14 opinion, as far as you can answer the question?

15 THE WITNESS: Yes, I would rather think of disproportionate

16 shelling and sniping. Why? Because that they were shelled and killed by

17 sniper is a fact. There are causes of death for the killed civilians

18 that expressed the fact and because of the fact that there were many,

19 many days on which the numbers of killed civilians were higher than

20 soldiers. For me, in my assessment, it is disproportionate.

21 JUDGE KWON: Thank you.

22 JUDGE BAIRD: Dr. Tabeau, while we're on this subject, I want to

23 take your mind back to a part of the cross-examination where Mr. Karadzic

24 had put his case to you.

25 Now what happened there, he -- he had squeezed in several

Page 28401

1 questions in concertina fashion, you understand, and you weren't in a

2 position to answer any of those questions.

3 Now what I would like to do now is to dismantle that compound

4 question and get your answers on each component of it, if possible.

5 He said: First of all, my thesis is what happened there was a

6 civil war.

7 Are you in a position to answer yes or no to this question at

8 all?

9 THE WITNESS: Well, I think I would rather not because I don't

10 feel really familiar enough with legal aspect.

11 JUDGE BAIRD: Fair enough, all right. Thank you.

12 He then said:

13 "It was not that the Serbs persecuted others and nothing happened

14 to the Serbs, and everything happened to others."

15 Are you in a position to comment on that, one way or the other?

16 THE WITNESS: Well, as a layperson who reads about wars and

17 conflicts, I know that every war is a complex situation, and there are

18 more than just one party involved.

19 So, also in the war in Bosnia, one party involved were the Serbs

20 and the army and the paramilitaries but there were also other parties to

21 conflict. And, again, I wouldn't like to go deeper than just that.

22 JUDGE BAIRD: Thank you. And the last component of that compound

23 suggestion was:

24 "You will realise that everything was proportional there."

25 Are you in a position to comment on that?

Page 28402

1 THE WITNESS: I'm sure that not everything was proportionate in

2 this war. I studied people killed in this war, both civilians and

3 soldiers for the entire country of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and I am sure

4 that it is not that people lost their lives proportionally to ethnic

5 composition pre-war ethnic composition or anything like that. Certain

6 groups, I think, had lost more lives than other groups. But every --

7 every ethnic group, every people, every people suffered in this war, and

8 considerably so.

9 JUDGE BAIRD: Thank you very much, indeed, Doctor.

10 Yes, Dr. Karadzic.

11 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you, Excellency. I was

12 waiting for the interpretation. Thank you for these clarifications. I

13 am in a hurry, and therefore, I'm putting such questions.

14 JUDGE KWON: Yes. Please continue now.

15 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] French language is a Baroque

16 language and takes longer for interpretation.

17 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

18 Q. So, in view of what His Excellency Baird asked you about, if I

19 tell you that from your table among the displaced and the refugees, we

20 have 32 percentages, or 34, it corresponds to the share in the overall

21 population, and that equally applies to all three ethnic groups.

22 This is the case with those who were killed as well.

23 Approximately 32 percentage -- per cents of Serbs were among those who

24 were killed, which is equal to their share, and my understand

25 [as interpreted] of statistical analysis is to demonstrate these ratios.

Page 28403

1 A. So -- so -- what -- what I need to say, for me, it is, if you

2 want to calculate the shares, you can calculate the shares, but I don't

3 think ... yeah, I don't know what to say. Sorry. You know ...

4 Q. All right. Thank you. Do you know that one party declared war

5 on another party; that is to say, that the Muslims declared war on us?

6 JUDGE KWON: No, it is not for the doctor to comment on.

7 THE WITNESS: No.

8 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation] All right.

9 Q. Do you know that there was the 1st Corps of the

10 Army of Bosnia-Herzegovina in Sarajevo, that they were blended among the

11 population, and that it had the numbers which were three times larger

12 than members of our army?

13 A. Well, I -- I -- I don't know. I don't want to know perhaps even.

14 I heard this theory before that Bosniak army was mixed up and was killing

15 their own people, but I don't think I can comment on this.

16 Q. Well, if, for example, we look the number of victims in 1994 from

17 your report, starting from the 5th of February, and you noticed a large

18 number of victims in that period, and I am sure that your coefficient

19 definitely exceeded one.

20 Just bear with me a minute. I need to find the year 1994 - I'm

21 sure you have it in front of you - relating to Sarajevo.

22 A. I guess you are referring to the Dragomir Milosevic report;

23 right? Or Galic report? 1994, it is February. Galic report.

24 Q. Yes. Table number 13. You say that:

25 "On the 5th of February, 1994, 45 civilians and 14 soldiers were

Page 28404

1 killed, which totals 60, and the ratio is 1:4."

2 Is that correct? Does this constitute terrorising civilians?

3 A. Well, I don't have this ratio or this table calculated

4 explicitly, but it might be that I have it somewhere in the text.

5 This is a sample of days on which six or more civilians were

6 killed. That is, Table 13, page 36, in the Galic report.

7 Q. Thank you. Do you know what happened on the

8 5th of February, 1994, in Sarajevo which resulted in this number of

9 victims? Have you ever heard of Markale I incident?

10 A. Yes.

11 Q. Do you know who caused it?

12 JUDGE KWON: It's not for the witness.

13 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Your Excellency, if it is said that

14 on the 8th of June, 1992, so-and-so number of civilians were killed in

15 Sarajevo without taking into account that the Muslims launched their

16 offensive on the 8th of June, 1992 -- look at this. It sayings eight

17 civilians, 108 soldiers, total number is 116, and ratio 1:5.

18 So if you take any date in which a considerable number of victims

19 is recorded, then this requires to look into the matter who started this

20 offensive, what was going on in the military terms, and whether this was

21 merely a campaign of terror conducted by the Serbs. And, in addition to

22 that, whether there was a siege or not in existence.

23 MS. WEST: Mr. President --

24 JUDGE KWON: I note it is time to conclude your

25 cross-examination, Mr. Karadzic. It is purely a waste of time to put

Page 28405

1 such questions to Dr. Tabeau.

2 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Well, Your Excellency, if the

3 witness is taking the liberty to define what a siege is and what a

4 terrorising campaign is, it is my right to say that this is incomplete

5 data and that there is no proper contextualization. And I need to draw

6 the attention of this witness that on those dates offensives were

7 launched, that the 1st Corps of the BH Army had many more soldiers than

8 we did, and they were more dangerous than our army.

9 But, anyway, let's go back to the findings pertaining to

10 Sarajevo.

11 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

12 Q. Do you know that during the war there existed part of the town

13 which was called the Serbian Sarajevo and nowadays it is called eastern

14 Sarajevo?

15 A. You are referring to Pale, I guess.

16 Q. No. I'm not talking about Pale. 80 per cent of the territory in

17 Sarajevo was Serb controlled, and Serbs were a majority there. Do you

18 know that there was a Serb majority in Ilijas, for example, but that we

19 handed it over post-Dayton?

20 A. Well, I -- I don't know what is the 80 per cent of the territory

21 of Sarajevo that Serbs controlled territory and was it exactly. And

22 Ilijas was indeed a Serb majority. But what's the question, actually?

23 Q. The question is: Are you aware that throughout the whole war

24 there existed two cities in Sarajevo, that the Serbian part of the town

25 and Serbs territories by definition were located and were surrounding the

Page 28406

1 Muslim part, and that did not mean that the town was under siege.

2 That's why I'm asking you whether you know what Serb Sarajevo

3 was.

4 A. Well, I don't know exactly what you mean by "Serb Sarajevo."

5 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Your Excellency, I need two more

6 hours. Actually, I will try to finish until the end of today's working

7 hours, but I would need more time.

8 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

9 Q. Now please take a look at Sarajevo in the Karadzic case, and let

10 us go together through the tables that you put.

11 MS. WEST: Sorry for the interruption. Just for the

12 Trial Chamber's information, I do have some re-direct. My re-direct

13 would be about five minutes long.

14 JUDGE KWON: Thank you.

15 [Trial Chamber and Registrar confer]

16 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

17 Q. Addendum A3. Table 1M.

18 A. So that would be the municipalities report?

19 Q. Yes, Sarajevo Ten.

20 MS. WEST: This is P4994, e-court page 74.

21 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

22 Q. Could we now please take a look at this page. I cannot give you

23 the exact number. Yes. This is it.

24 Could we now please take a look at this. There were over 43.000

25 adults in Sarajevo in 1991; right?

Page 28407

1 A. 438.605 in Sarajevo Ten in 1991. All ethnicities.

2 Q. All right. How did you get this figure, that in the Serb part of

3 Sarajevo there were only 24.000 when Serb Sarajevo included Trnovo, half

4 of Ilidza, half of Hadzici, all of Vogosca, all of Ilijas, a small part

5 of the old city and all of Pale?

6 A. This table is made for post-Dayton municipalities. So the part

7 reported here as Republika Srpska includes parts out of a number of

8 Sarajevo Ten municipalities that, after the Dayton Agreement, were

9 assigned to Republika Srpska.

10 Q. All right. Less look further on the sample of the population for

11 1997. What you indicate is that there was an increase in the Serb

12 population to 29.000. Now what would you say if I were to tell you that

13 now the population of Serb Sarajevo is 100.000?

14 A. What is the Serb Sarajevo now? Is it the RS part?

15 Q. Yes. Because we returned Hadzici, the Serb part of Hadzici. We

16 returned the Serb part of Ilidza, almost all of Ilidza that is. Then we

17 returned all of Vogosca and all of Ilijas, and that happened at the

18 negotiating table in Dayton. What remained out of Sarajevo, Lukavica,

19 and the rest, Pale and so on, that has a population of 100.000.

20 A. It might be. I don't know exactly.

21 Q. All right. Now take a look at this. You say that in the

22 Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo Ten in 1991, there were

23 205.000 Muslims and as for 1997, you give a lower figure.

24 How did that happen?

25 A. It's a sample. It's a sample. Not a figure, complete figure.

Page 28408

1 It's just a sample of Muslims identified in the voters' register which is

2 161.273.

3 Q. Can we see Vogosca here? No, no.

4 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Can we please have the next page

5 now.

6 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

7 Q. Do you know that Vogosca was in Serb hands throughout the war and

8 that it was peacefully handed over after Dayton?

9 A. Well, sir, I know that there was a Dayton Agreement in which the

10 country was divided into Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosniak

11 and Croats. The analysis I made is using the post-Dayton municipalities.

12 So I didn't study who had Vogosca before the war and after the

13 war because it wasn't the subject of my report.

14 Q. Thank you. Let us take a look at 1C, the next table. Let us see

15 how the Croats of Sarajevo faired.

16 So let us take a look at this now. There were 31.000 Croats in

17 Sarajevo in 1991. They accounted for 7.1 per cent. And let us see how

18 things ended. 10.000 is the estimate, 4.4 per cent, or 37 per cent less;

19 right?

20 A. 10.000 is a sample. 1997 voters' register.

21 Q. What does the sample show us? Does it not represent the whole?

22 A. No. This is a sample of Croats registered in the 1997 voters'

23 register.

24 I don't think, Mr. Karadzic, that you will find in these numbers

25 the answer to who was in charge of certain territories before the war and

Page 28409

1 who became to be in charge after the war. Well, it is just a simple

2 study of ethnic composition in 1991 and 1997, and no more than that.

3 Things that happened during the war are not in this table, as a matter of

4 fact, not explicitly reported as numbers.

5 Q. And conclusions cannot be made in a criminal case; right?

6 JUDGE KWON: That's not for the witness, Mr. Karadzic.

7 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] All right. Then nothing -- can we

8 have 1S. Can we just cast a glance and see how the Serbs faired? And

9 then we'll move on to something different.

10 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

11 Q. Is this correct, that in Sarajevo in 1991, there were 133.000

12 Serbs who were adults; namely, born before 1980.

13 A. Yes.

14 Q. And if I were to tell you that in Sarajevo at the time there were

15 157.000 Serbs, persons who declared themselves that way, and 23.000 who

16 declared themselves as Yugoslav, and that included an enormous number of

17 Serbs, does that correspond to the number that you have there of persons

18 born before 1980?

19 A. It doesn't. But I would like to hear about your sources.

20 Q. The official census in Sarajevo. There were 157.000 Serbs; a bit

21 more than that. And there were 23.000-something Yugoslavs. All of them,

22 not only those who were of age.

23 A. Yes. This is correct. I have the published number of Serbs in

24 Sarajevo, all ten municipalities, all ages, and this is 157.000 Serbs.

25 Q. Thank you. So let us please take a look at this.

Page 28410

1 In the area that belonged to Republika Srpska, you believed that

2 there are persons who were born before 1980 and that there

3 18.000-something of them and in the federal part, 115.000; right?

4 A. Yes.

5 Q. And the estimate is, or, what, that in 1997, there's 82 per cent

6 less Serbs, Serbs in relation to Serbs. That would be 91 per cent less,

7 according to my calculations, in the federal part and 55.4 per cent more

8 in the Serb part of Sarajevo?

9 A. Well, I have 82.2 per cent less Serbs in the federal part of

10 Sarajevo.

11 Q. But my calculation is 91 in relation to the 115.000. That is the

12 number of people who were there in 1991. But, all right. This cannot be

13 used because we don't know what a sample is and what the population it

14 represents is.

15 At any rate, the estimate is that in 1997 there are only

16 5 per cent Serbs in Sarajevo.

17 A. In the federal part of Sarajevo.

18 Q. Yes, yes, in the federal part of Sarajevo.

19 And there were 30 per cent of them; right? There used to be 30

20 per cent?

21 A. 28. So about. Correct.

22 Q. Thank you.

23 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Can we take a look at 2S?

24 Table 2S.

25 MS. WEST: E-court 88.

Page 28411

1 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

2 Q. Can you help me with this. This minimum number of internally

3 displaced persons from Sarajevo Ten, the Serb's status as of 1997; right?

4 A. Yes.

5 Q. And, in 1997, isn't that right, 76.100 Serbs, 11.000 of which are

6 Republika Srpska, and 64.000 in the Federation of BH. That is to say,

7 displaced persons and refugees; right?

8 A. Yes.

9 Q. Thank you.

10 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Could we now see 1D05559 in

11 e-court.

12 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

13 Q. Can you recognise this table?

14 A. Yes. You -- not you, but Mr. Robinson asked me to provide

15 statistics, if I had them, on deaths and disappearances of Muslims from a

16 number of municipalities in 1992-1995.

17 Q. Thank you. So in Bratunac, there were 21.535 Muslims; right?

18 And there are 3.281 killed or disappeared, which is

19 15.2 per cent.

20 A. Yes, this is what is -- it is in the table.

21 Q. Thank you. Please let's go through the whole table so that I

22 don't have to read all of it.

23 Foca, 20.790.

24 Kljuc, 17.696 Muslims, 600 Muslims killed and disappeared,

25 3.4 per cent.

Page 28412

1 Prijedor, 49.351 inhabitants, 2.627 killed and disappeared,

2 3.5 per cent.

3 Sanski Most, 28.136, 619 killed and disappeared, 2.2 per cent.

4 Vlasenica, 18.727, 1.197 Muslims killed and disappeared,

5 6.4 per cent.

6 Zvornik, 48.102, 3.411 Muslims killed and disappeared, 2.7 -- 7.1

7 per cent.

8 For all of Bosnia and Herzegovina there were 1.902.956 Muslims.

9 49.111 Muslims killed and disappeared, 2.6 per cent.

10 Did these figures include combatants who were killed in fighting?

11 A. I guess so.

12 Q. Thank you. Does it include persons who died a natural death?

13 A. No. No, natural deaths.

14 Q. Does the Bratunac figure include the number of persons who lost

15 their lives in 1995?

16 A. It is the complete war period. Until end of war in 1995, yes.

17 Q. Thank you. Would it be correct to conclude that throughout the

18 war less than 3 per cent of the Muslim population lost their lives,

19 2.6 per cent?

20 A. This is what the table says.

21 Q. Thank you. Do you happen to know what the percentage would be of

22 Jews who lost their lives in Europe during the Holocaust in the

23 Second World War?

24 MS. WEST: Objection.

25 JUDGE KWON: Not relevant.

Page 28413

1 MR. ROBINSON: Actually, Mr. President, if I could just be heard

2 on that. I think it is relevant. Maybe she knows or she doesn't. But

3 these are the seven municipalities that the Prosecution has alleged in

4 the indictment, paragraph 38, which constituted genocide as charged in

5 count 1 of the indictment and one of the elements of genocide is that

6 there has to be an intend to destroy a substantial part of the group.

7 You see here that 2.6 per cent were "destroyed," and I think it's

8 relevant to compare that with other instances where there have been

9 findings of genocide such as the Holocaust or --

10 JUDGE KWON: Pardon, Mr. Robinson. I'm sorry to cut you off, but

11 is this for this witness to confirm?

12 MR. ROBINSON: Well, he's asking her for a piece of information.

13 If she has it then it would be useful to the Chamber, if she doesn't then

14 we will have to find it through some other source.

15 JUDGE KWON: I think we can safely skip this issue with this

16 witness.

17 Mr. Karadzic, please conclude your cross-examination in five

18 minutes' time from now.

19 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] May I say, then, to Dr. Tabeau what

20 my case is?

21 JUDGE KWON: If necessary.

22 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

23 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

24 Q. In Rwanda, Dr. Tabeau, about 70 per cent of the Tutsi population

25 was destroyed, and in Europe about 58 per cent of the population that