Tribunal Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia

Page 20440

 1                           Tuesday, 10 May 2011

 2                           [Open session]

 3                           [The accused entered court]

 4                           --- Upon commencing at 9.06 a.m.

 5             THE REGISTRAR:  Good morning, Your Honours.  Good morning

 6     everyone in and around the courtroom.  This is case number IT-08-91-T.

 7     The Prosecutor versus Mico Stanisic and Stojan Zupljanin.

 8             JUDGE HALL:  Thank you, Madam Registrar.  Good morning to

 9     everyone.  May we have the appearances, please.

10             MR. HANNIS:  Good morning, Your Honours.  For the Prosecution,

11     I'm Tom Hannis along with Gramsci De Fazio and Crispian Smith.

12             MR. ZECEVIC:  Good morning, Your Honours.  Slobodan Zecevic,

13     Slobodan Cvijetic, and Eugene O'Sullivan appearing for Stanisic Defence

14     this morning.  Thank you.

15             MR. ALEKSIC:  [Interpretation] Good morning, Your Honours.

16     Aleksandar Aleksic appearing for Mr. Stojan Zupljanin's Defence.

17             JUDGE HALL:  Thank you.

18             Would the usher please escort the witness back to the stand.

19                           [The witness takes the stand]

20             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Bajagic, good morning to you.  We are at the

21     stage where Mr. Zecevic would begin his re-examination and before he does

22     that I would remind you you are still on your oath.

23                           WITNESS:  MLADEN BAJAGIC [Resumed]

24                           [Witness answered through interpreter]

25             JUDGE HALL:  Yes, Mr. Zecevic.

Page 20441

 1             MR. ZECEVIC:  Thank you, Your Honours.

 2                           Re-examination by Mr. Zecevic:

 3        Q.   [Interpretation] Good morning, Mr. Bajagic.  I have several

 4     questions for you today.  Yesterday on page 20417 of the transcript, you

 5     were asked by Mr. Hannis a question about the public revenue service.  Do

 6     you remember that?

 7        A.   Yes.

 8        Q.   You said that you are not an economist and that is quite clear.

 9     I'm only interested in one issue.  As for the public accounting service

10     in the former Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia, did it exist

11     in every town, that is to say every municipality in the territory of the

12     former Yugoslavia?

13        A.   Yes, from the highest level to the lowest, just as all other

14     institutions.  Any organ always existed at the municipal level, including

15     the public accounting service.

16        Q.   Thank you.  Mr. Bajagic, I will give you P189 in hard copy.  It's

17     a document which you commented on yesterday with the OTP.

18             MR. ZECEVIC: [Interpretation] Can I please have P189.  Thank you.

19        Q.   Sir, before we begin to comment on this document, I would refer

20     you to your paragraph 4 on page 93 which is entitled "MUP prisoners of

21     war and prisoner of war camps."  It's paragraph 291 of your expert report

22     and further.  Yesterday, you commented on paragraph 293 where you

23     mentioned this document which we see before us now.  However, I will ask

24     you to comment briefly on paragraphs 295 and 304 of your report.

25        A.   Relating to this document, instructions on the treatment of

Page 20442

 1     captured persons, in paragraph 295, I particularly referred to item 18 of

 2     these instructions, and I quoted by saying that corps commanders of the

 3     Army of the Serbian Republic of the Bosnia-Herzegovina were responsible

 4     for accommodating prisoners of war.

 5             MR. ZECEVIC: [Interpretation] Could we just please see page 3 in

 6     B/C/S and second page in English on the screen so that we can follow what

 7     you are talking about right now.

 8        Q.   Please go ahead, Mr. Bajagic.

 9        A.   Considering item 18 of these instructions, I can repeat what I

10     wrote in the particular paragraph in my report, namely that:

11             "The corps commanders of the Army of Serbian Republic of

12     Bosnia-Herzegovina shall be responsible for camp organisation and

13     quartering."

14             I concluded in my paragraph 295 that it was the military organs

15     who were responsible for the prisoner of war camps rather than the

16     Ministry of the Interior.  They were under the jurisdiction of the army

17     rather than the Ministry of the Interior.  In connection with that, I

18     referred to the order of the commander of the Army of the Serbian

19     Republic and some other documents which illustrate this by their

20     contents.

21        Q.   Thank you.  Can you just very briefly comment your paragraph 304?

22        A.   In this paragraph I continued to provide illustrations and

23     examples which show that it was Army of Republika Srpska which was in

24     charge of these issues and I referred to a dispatch dated the 17th of

25     June, 1992, which was entitled "Order to raise the combat readiness of

Page 20443

 1     the Birac Brigade to the command of the Eastern Bosnian corps."  Inter

 2     alia, the order provides an estimate from the Main Staff that the

 3     Birac Brigade had almost 600 prisoners and that the corps command had not

 4     specified a location for the prisoner of war camp at the corps level.

 5        Q.   Mr. Bajagic, I understand that you are impatient to conclude your

 6     testimony but please be so kind as to have some understanding for

 7     interpreters and all of us.  I cannot follow you in the Serbian language,

 8     let alone the interpreters who have to interpret you.  Please be patient

 9     just a little while longer, we will not dwell on this too long.  Please

10     go on.

11        A.   From the contents of this order and on the basis of an estimate,

12     as it says, one can see that it was actually the corps command which was

13     responsible for forming prisoner of war camps in the so-called centres

14     for these prisons in the combat operation zone, that is to say in the

15     territory which was covered and for -- which was covered by certain corps

16     and for which the corps was responsible.  I discussed it further on in

17     this document on the basis of the documents which I mention at the

18     beginning, including these instructions.

19        Q.   As for this order under Article 304 of your report, is it, in

20     your view you, in accordance with item 18 of the previous document which

21     we can see on the screen before us, that is to say the instructions

22     issued by the Ministry of Defence?

23        A.   Yes, it directly refers to item 18 of the instructions which we

24     mentioned in the previous paragraphs.

25        Q.   Mr. Bajagic, yesterday on page 20382 when you were asked by

Page 20444

 1     Mr. Hannis and a suggestion that this document which we see before us now

 2     referred primarily to prisoners of war and prisoner of war camps, you

 3     answered in the affirmative and then you said in your answer:

 4             "However, if you look at the first page of this document,

 5     different terms have been used, not just prisoner of war camps, but also

 6     collection centres, and this is why this is also included in my report,

 7     and all these terms which appear in documents are also mentioned in my

 8     expert report."

 9             In connection with that, I would like us to comment on item 4 of

10     this document P189.  It is on the first page in both versions.  Please go

11     ahead but just please be slow, Mr. Bajagic.

12        A.   When I answered this question yesterday, I had in mind this very

13     fact.  As we can see, item 4 of these instructions uses the term

14     "reception centres," and that was why I mentioned and emphasised that

15     terms that we mentioned in the report are being used.  They are to be

16     found in various documents.  These instructions are instructions on

17     treatment of prisoners, and item 4 says that captured persons shall be

18     taken to reception centres.  Therefore, in the expert report I used

19     various terms.

20        Q.   Mr. Bajagic, on the basis of item 4, who determines where a

21     reception centre would be situated?

22        A.   As we can see and as the instructions say in item 4, a commanding

23     officer who is a company commander or somebody who is -- who holds an

24     equal or higher position shall determine that before the start of combat

25     activity, so that is the military rank responsible for this issue at the

Page 20445

 1     moment.

 2        Q.   Well, a senior officer with a rank of company commander, does

 3     that refer to military personnel or not?

 4        A.   Of course it refers to military personnel.

 5        Q.   Sir, in item 2, can you please comment on item 2, or rather,

 6     paragraph 2 of item 4?

 7        A.   It discusses the further procedure that is paragraph 2 of item 4,

 8     further treatment of this category of persons.  It says that their

 9     identity is to be established at the reception centre, and then in an

10     organised manner and under escort they shall be taken to a prison camp.

11     So procedure is further elaborated in the second paragraph, the manner of

12     treating these persons.

13        Q.   As for item 4, does it envisage two different institutions, let

14     me put it that way, or not?

15        A.   It implies the existence of a reception centre, that's the first

16     possible situation when a person is captured, and it also implies that

17     from reception centres, persons can be sent to prison camps, so it's not

18     identical.

19        Q.   Thank you.  On the following page in the Serbian version,

20     paragraph 5, I'm interested in the first sentence of the first paragraph

21     of item 5.  I would like to hear your comment and then also the second

22     paragraph of the same item.  Can you please comment on that for us.

23        A.   Item 5 mentions in the first sentence what is meant by a prison

24     camp and also discusses the accommodation conditions which have to be the

25     same as those provided to units billeted in the same area.  It also says

Page 20446

 1     that conditions shall make allowance for the habits and customs of

 2     captured persons.

 3             If I understood this properly, I should also comment on the

 4     following sentence because that is paragraph 2.  It talks about mixed

 5     camps in which separate dormitories and sanitation facilities shall be

 6     provided for female prisoners.  So as I said, item 5 talks about creating

 7     certain living conditions in camps and some specific details which are

 8     important or specified, such as, for example, the issue of female

 9     prisoners.

10        Q.   Mr. Bajagic, does item 5 mention prisoner of war camps or some

11     other type of camp?

12        A.   It's clear from the first sentence, prison camps shall be taken

13     to mean --

14        Q.   And if I understood properly, what is envisaged here is also what

15     needs to be done when women should happen to be in this prison camps?

16        A.   Yes, precisely.  It is the obligation to organise separate

17     dormitories and sanitation facilities or, I suppose, conditions.

18             MR. ZECEVIC:  I see that Mr. Hannis is on his feet.

19             MR. HANNIS:  I had an objection to the form of the question

20     because item 2 of this document makes clear who the captured persons are

21     in the reception centre and these prison camps.  Captured persons are

22     members of enemy armed forces which can include females but we are

23     talking about combatants.

24             MR. ZECEVIC:  Well, Your Honours, I'm not sure I understand the

25     objection.  I think this is a submission and the submissions should be, I

Page 20447

 1     guess, at the very end of the case when we will give our prospective

 2     views on certain documents.

 3             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Mr. Zecevic, I agree, but I would then ask you to

 4     clarify with the witness the discrepancy that seems to be included in

 5     this document, because it is clear from the wording of Article 1 --

 6     sorry, Article 2 that this instruction is issued by the army and it is

 7     binding upon the armed members of the armed forces of the

 8     Republika Srpska and it is designed to treat or to deal with the

 9     treatment of captured combatants.  And as Mr. Hannis pointed out,

10     combatants may, of course, also include women.  But then the question

11     arises with the -- how female civilians to the extent in which they are

12     captured, how they are treated and the larger issue behind this is how

13     civilians who are captured are treated, and one issue or one question

14     that I have is whether this instruction would also cover the treatment of

15     civilian detainees and not only combatants.

16             MR. ZECEVIC: [Interpretation]

17        Q.   Mr. Bajagic, you heard the question of Judge Harhoff.  I don't

18     want to paraphrase it so well, could you please answer the question

19     directly.

20        A.   The entire document, these instructions deal with the captured

21     persons.  Item 2 defines that term.  Members of enemy armed forces will

22     have surrendered and laid down their arms or have been overpowered and

23     are out of combat, it is very clear, therefore, who this is about.

24             JUDGE HARHOFF:  But, Mr. Bajagic, the issue behind all of this is

25     really if you can tell us about the legal framework that was in place at

Page 20448

 1     the time in Republika Srpska that covered the treatment of civilians who

 2     had been detained.

 3             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] In the chapter where I comment the

 4     matters concerning these camps, I cited documents that I had, and these

 5     are orders of the Main Staff of the VRS, of the corps, but I didn't make

 6     any separate comments about the laws or regulations that deal with this.

 7     These laws and regulations aren't present but the one piece of

 8     legislation that was the focus of my analysis is the Law on the -- on

 9     Internal Affairs, but it doesn't mention this matter.  Of course, I

10     analysed this law but also other laws and regulations that are important

11     for the structure and functioning of the MUP, but in those laws and

12     regulations I didn't find anything specific about this.  I only studied

13     documents that were able to shed some light on this.

14             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Is your testimony then that as far as the

15     detention of civilians during armed conflict there were no rules?

16             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] As far as these categories of

17     persons are concerned, I mostly cited documents that were created in the

18     system of the VRS, and I also cite other documents as mentioned in the

19     footnotes.  In other laws and regulations, I didn't find anything about

20     this.

21             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Mr. Bajagic, the documents that you have

22     described in chapter 4 in paragraph 291 and the following paragraphs in

23     your report all seem to deal with the rules issued by the Main Staff of

24     the VRS concerning the treatment of prisoners of war, and although you

25     are not a lawyer by training, I believe that you have already shown that

Page 20449

 1     you have sufficient knowledge about these things to make a clear

 2     distinction between a prisoner of war and civilians.  So my question to

 3     you again is:  Since we have had evidence in this trial about the

 4     detention of a large number of civilians and since you are an expert on

 5     the MUP, the Court is interested in hearing your testimony about which

 6     rules then would apply to the detention of civilians, that is to say, of

 7     persons who are not combatants.

 8             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] As we can see from this whole

 9     chapter, everything that has to do with these camps and the very analyses

10     of the footnotes as well as the sources that I cited show that the MUP

11     had no authority over these which means that they were under the direct

12     responsibility of the VRS, all these that we have spoken about.  Also in

13     connection with paragraphs 295 and 304.

14             I said that there is nothing special in the laws and regulations

15     that provides for these types of treatment, but as I said yesterday, I

16     analysed such a situation and some are in my report too, namely that the

17     MUP often issued warnings that at local levels there are such situations,

18     and the question was raised and forwarded to the highest levels of the

19     authorities what should be done about it.

20             There were also persons who were in some camps or collection

21     centres or detained without the MUP immediately processing them, so there

22     were such urgent issues at local level but I didn't find a document that

23     shows that this was also in the jurisdiction of the MUP anywhere, in any

24     document.  It was the Crisis Staffs that decided about these matters or

25     whatever the executive body of the authorities at local level was called

Page 20450

 1     at the time.

 2             I referred to dispatches and other documents of the ministry at

 3     several places in my report that show the ministry's desire to resolve

 4     this issue the way it should be resolved.  It was the Crisis Staffs at

 5     local level that took care of these matters and were responsible for

 6     them.

 7             I hope this was clear.

 8             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Thank you for this clarification.  And forgive me

 9     for scratching further into this but you see, the protection of civilians

10     is basically one of the most important functions of the MUP.  So we would

11     expect that someone who is an expert in the MUP or on the MUP would also

12     pay some interests into how this function was carried out, even though,

13     as you say, the MUP was not directly involved in the detention of

14     civilians.

15             So I realise that you may not be able to tell us out of your

16     expertise just how the Crisis Staffs or the War Presidencies then treated

17     civilians, or, rather, according to which rules or laws or regulations

18     the Crisis Staffs or the War Presidencies handled the detention of

19     civilians.  But still, if you have any knowledge about this, even though

20     it may fall outside the strict centre of your expertise, we would be

21     grateful to hear it.  And the options that seem logical to me is that

22     either the rules that applied to the prisoners of war issued by the

23     Main Staff of the VRS, either those rules were applied also to civilians

24     by analogy, that's one option.  The other option is that civilians were

25     then treated -- detained civilians were then treated according to some

Page 20451

 1     other rules.  And the third option is that there were no rules at all.

 2             Can you give us some indication as to what legal regime that

 3     applied to the detention of civilians regardless of who was responsible

 4     for it.

 5             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I did not analyse this issue in

 6     this way in my report, but one thing is sure, in a number of documents

 7     that I cite in my expert report, I refer to the fact that the Ministry of

 8     the Interior insisted several times that this issue must be resolved,

 9     that a legal framework must be set up for treatment of these persons and

10     bearing in mind what was happening in some territories, probably at the

11     level of the local authorities.

12             I found in the dispatches, and I have mentioned some documents of

13     this type here, that the ministry launch an initiative for this issue to

14     be resolved as efficiently as possible.  I pointed out that the

15     functioning of the ministry in an integrated manner was very difficult,

16     and in some areas at the local level it was the Crisis Staffs who were

17     dominant.  Of course there were problems and there was also this legal

18     vacuum, that is, the absence of laws and regulations providing for the

19     treatment of all categories of persons, namely those categories that

20     cannot be considered captured persons which is a phrase used in these

21     military instructions.

22             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Thank you.

23             MR. ZECEVIC: [Interpretation]

24        Q.   Mr. Bajagic, your comment of paragraph 304, the second sentence

25     that begins with the words, "An examination of the conduct of the

Page 20452

 1     dispatch."  It was about taking care of such persons.

 2        A.   The dispatch we discussed and that is the preservation of combat

 3     readiness of the Birac Brigade --

 4             THE INTERPRETER:  Could the witness please slow down a little.

 5             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] That they were responsible for the

 6     establishment of prisoner camps but also centres for displaced persons

 7     from combat zones, so everything that happens -- for everything that

 8     happens in a combat zone, it's the military organs that are responsible,

 9     that is the corps commands.

10        Q.   Mr. Bajagic, how do you understand the term "displaced persons"

11     from the zones of combat operations, are they persons who took part in

12     combat operations for the opposing side?

13        A.   Well, the term displaced persons denotes civilians, not members

14     of military formations.

15             MR. ZECEVIC: [Interpretation] Thank you, Mr. Bajagic.  No more

16     questions, Your Honours.

17             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Bajagic, thank you.  Your examination is at an

18     end.  You are now released as a witness and we wish you a safe journey

19     back to your home.  Thank you.

20             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Thank you.

21                           [The witness withdrew]

22             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Zecevic, is your next witness ready to come on

23     immediately?

24             MR. ZECEVIC:  Yes, Your Honours, but before that I would like to

25     tender the expert report of Mr. Bajagic.  Now, Your Honours, having heard

Page 20453

 1     the cross-examination of the -- of my learned friend of yesterday, the

 2     Defence is proposing that the Bajagic report be admitted partially,

 3     namely that all annexes, 1 to 11, because those are the annexes of the

 4     documents that he retyped himself, be taken out of his expert report.

 5     So, therefore, his expert report and Annex, 12 which he confirms he

 6     authored it himself, be admitted.  I have the reference 1D numbers.  It's

 7     1D063016, that's expert report in Serbian -- in English, I'm sorry.  And

 8     in Serbian, it's 1D062404.  And his updated CV is 1D064993, is the

 9     English version, and the Serbian version is 1D064985.  And, of course, we

10     will provide the list with the footnotes which are not exhibits in this

11     case at this point together to be admitted with the expert report.  Thank

12     you.

13             MR. HANNIS:  Your Honours will recall that when we found our

14     notice concerning the witness, we objected to certain specific portions

15     of his report.  We stand by those objections and, actually, based on his

16     testimony now, it's the Prosecution's position that you should not accept

17     any of his report, not only because of contents, but because of what

18     you've learned about the level of his expertise, his methodology, the

19     kinds of sources he relied on, et cetera.  I would like the opportunity

20     to file a written submission detailing this and also because the Defence

21     is proposing to introduce all of the footnoted documents, I need an

22     opportunity to address each of those because they weren't shown to the

23     witness and they weren't discussed.  But it's the Prosecution position

24     that a number of those footnoted documents should not admissible for

25     various reasons.  There is some question about the source or authenticity

Page 20454

 1     of some of them.  Many of them, we think, simply aren't relevant.  They

 2     are in the portion of the report which we say is basically a tu quoque

 3     argument and therefore not relevant.  So I would respectfully request

 4     that Your Honours defer a final decision on whether or not the report

 5     gets admitted at all or which portions you are going to admit until

 6     you've had an opportunity to review our written submissions.

 7             MR. ZECEVIC:  Your Honours, with all due respect, the -- I think

 8     the purpose of the cross-examination of a party is to challenge precisely

 9     the documents based on which the conclusions were made, the conclusions

10     and whatever the statement or actually whatever the position the expert

11     took.  So if it wasn't challenged during the cross-examination, Your

12     Honours, it cannot be challenged through some other means by filing a

13     motion to challenge it post facto when the witness left the court and

14     finished his testimony.

15             JUDGE HALL:  I don't know whether I misunderstood Mr. Hannis, but

16     I didn't appreciate what he said to be that he would be taking, as it

17     were, a new challenge in his written motion.  What I thought he was

18     saying is that he was merely requesting time to organise it in a

19     comprehensible written form and one of the -- I don't want to put words

20     in Mr. Hannis' mouth, nor do I wish to anticipate what he may say in any

21     written motion, but one of the principal planks, as I understand it, is

22     that his challenge to the methodology which he did make in the

23     cross-examination was so that it's so interwoven in the report and that

24     is the basis on which he would take the extreme, for want of a better

25     word, step of submitting that it should be rejected in its entirety.  Did

Page 20455

 1     I understand you correctly, Mr. Hannis?

 2             MR. HANNIS:  I'm not sure, and let me make a few comments that

 3     hopefully will answer that question.  I note looking at the Prosecution's

 4     notice regarding the expert, in paragraph 5 at the time we said:

 5             "The Prosecution also challenges Dr. Bajagic's entire report, in

 6     general, due to his questionable methodology and source documents."

 7             So we are already on record as challenging the entire report.

 8             And what I was saying here in terms of written submissions, I did

 9     want to address some of the specific footnoted documents that are listed

10     as sources for various reasons that I cited, but I did not address each

11     one in cross-examining the witness, partly because you may recall once or

12     twice Judge Harhoff asked me to get to the point, and I don't think

13     anybody wanted me to go through all 495 footnotes and ask him about every

14     one of those documents and some footnotes listed six or seven documents.

15     But I don't want the Defence to be able to sweep in all those documents

16     because I didn't take the time to ask about each and every one because

17     I'm already on record as having objected about the source documents.

18             And if I'm permitted to make a written submission, I will be able

19     to address specifically the ones that I have the most concerns about.

20     And if there's an you issue, the Defence thinks it's unfair I'm doing

21     that way, and I suppose they could make an application to recall

22     Mr. Bajagic to address a specific document.  But largely the documents

23     speak for themselves, and I think you can make a judgement once you have

24     seen what we pointed out and what the Defence responds to it.

25             MR. ZECEVIC:  Well, I'm even more confused than I was before, I

Page 20456

 1     must admit.  I understand that Mr. Hannis' principal objection goes for

 2     the list of the footnotes, and I think that is a separate issue.  We can

 3     discuss about the footnotes and the list of the footnotes, but the expert

 4     report, I hear that he said that in their submission they were

 5     challenging the certain portions of that report.

 6             MR. HANNIS:  I am sorry, I'll speak one more time and hopefully

 7     this will be the last time.  We are objecting to the entire report, as I

 8     said, partly because of his methodology and what I think showed on his

 9     cross-examination, that he does have some bias, that the level of his

10     expertise with regard to his apparent knowledge about certain things in

11     the MUP is not what you might have expected given his work experience,

12     his employment in the MUP, and his degree, and the courses that he

13     teaches.  But some rather pedestrian terms and concepts related to the

14     MUP that I think we all have some familiarity with now having sat in this

15     case for as long as we have seemed somewhat strange to him and he seemed

16     somewhat insecure in talking about some of those.  So we object to the

17     entire report and to all 12 annexes, including Annex 12.  Those are my

18     primary objections.  But the footnoted documents include, for example,

19     the book by Mr. Domagoj Margetic, we just don't think that's relevant.

20     We also think given his -- Mr. Margetic's history, that he is too biased

21     and prejudiced source to allow a book that he has written to come into

22     evidence in this case, simply because Mr. Bajagic found that he was a

23     source worthy of reliance upon.

24             MR. ZECEVIC:  Your Honours, again Mr. Hannis is making a

25     submission about the -- his understanding of the report and the findings

Page 20457

 1     of the expert, and I again emphasise that there is going to be the time

 2     for the submissions.  Now we are talking about the document that we

 3     offered.

 4                           [Trial Chamber confers]

 5                           [Trial Chamber and Legal Officer confer]

 6             JUDGE HALL:  Having heard what counsel have to say, the Chamber

 7     is of the view that the -- Mr. Hannis for the Prosecution should be --

 8     may be permitted to make submissions on the admissibility of the

 9     footnotes only, not the entirety of the report.  And, of course, such

10     submissions as are made would invite and necessitate and allow a response

11     from counsel for the Defence.  So having regard to the fact that we must

12     await the resolution of that, the basic application as to the

13     admissibility of the report must abide the determination of that

14     supplementary ancillary question.

15             MR. HANNIS:  Just so I'm absolutely clear, Your Honour, then,

16     from me, you only want my submissions as to particular footnoted

17     documents.

18             JUDGE HALL:  Yes.

19             MR. HANNIS:  And I need to add nothing to what we filed in our

20     notice in terms of the approximately 200 paragraphs of the report that

21     which we took objection for various reasons related to them being in the

22     nature of tu quoque, irrelevant, or beyond the scope of his expertise.

23     I'll only --

24             JUDGE HALL:  There's your motion and then there's, of course, the

25     cross-examination which you have completed.

Page 20458

 1             MR. HANNIS:  Thank you.  May I inquire what the time-limit is for

 2     filing that?

 3             JUDGE HALL:  How much time are you asking for?

 4             MR. HANNIS:  Could I have a week?

 5             JUDGE HALL:  That appears reasonable, Mr. Hannis.

 6             MR. HANNIS:  Thank you.

 7             Mr. Cvijetic, you were about to rise?

 8             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] No, Your Honours.  Just to inform

 9     you that we informed the VWS that the witness should be ready at 9.00, so

10     if you believe we should start before the break, I think that the witness

11     is ready.  And it is up to you to decide.  It is quite all the same to

12     me.

13                           [Trial Chamber confers]

14             JUDGE HALL:  So could the usher please escort the witness in.

15                           [The witness entered court]

16             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Good morning, sir.

17             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Good morning.

18             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Do you hear me in a language that you understand?

19             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Yes.

20             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Could you begin by giving the solemn declaration

21     which the usher is going to hand to you.

22             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I solemnly declare that I will

23     speak the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

24                           WITNESS:  STEVO PASALIC

25                           [Witness answered through interpreter]

Page 20459

 1             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Thank you very much, sir.  You may be seated.

 2             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Thank you.

 3             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Very well.  The Court thanks you for coming to

 4     the Tribunal to give your testimony.  You have been called as a

 5     demographics expert by counsel for Mr. Stanisic, who you will see to your

 6     left, and you are giving testimony, as I said, as an expert.

 7             Could I, first of all, ask you to state your name and your date

 8     and place of birth.

 9             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] My name is Stevo Pasalic, born on

10     the 10th of January, 1951, in Vozuca, Bosnia-Herzegovina.

11             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Thank you very much.  What is your current

12     function?

13             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I'm full university professor in

14     eastern Sarajevo.

15             JUDGE HARHOFF:  In which discipline?

16             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Demographics and social geography.

17             JUDGE HARHOFF:  And where did you have -- where did you complete

18     your education?

19             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I will start with primary education

20     which I completed in my birth place, Vozuca, in 1966.  After that, I

21     completed teachers college in Travnik in 1970.  After that, I completed

22     the academy for pedagogy in Slavonski Brod in 1973.  After that, having

23     served the army, as was obligatory, I continued studies at the sciences

24     and mathematics faculty in Novi Sad and I competed my studies in 1979.

25     Immediately after that, I enrolled in masters level post-graduate studies

Page 20460

 1     at the sciences, natural sciences and mathematics faculty in Belgrade

 2     where I defended my masters thesis on the 13th of April, 1983.  After

 3     that, my PhD thesis was approved at the natural sciences and mathematics

 4     faculty in Sarajevo.  But due to the outbreak of the war, I had to file

 5     my PhD thesis again, this time at the natural sciences and mathematics

 6     faculty in Novi Sad.  I defended my thesis on the 20th of March, 1995.

 7             JUDGE HARHOFF:  In Novi Sad?

 8             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Yes, in Novi Sad.

 9             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Mr. Pasalic, we have received an read your expert

10     report which has been submitted in this trial, and I believe that the

11     side calling you, that is to say the counsel for Mr. Stanisic, has asked

12     for -- could you confirm, Mr. Zecevic, how much time you will need, or

13     Mr. Cvijetic.

14             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honours, we requested ten

15     hours for examining this expert witness.  I will not promise firmly like

16     the previous time with Ms. Ewa Tabeau that I will try to make it shorter,

17     but I will try that anyway.

18             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Thank you, Mr. Cvijetic, we always appreciate the

19     assistance of counsel.

20             And the Prosecution, for cross-examination?

21             MR. Di FAZIO:  I've indicated six hours, but like Mr. Cvijetic,

22     I'm hopeful that I might be able do it in a shorter period of time.

23             JUDGE HARHOFF:  We appreciate that as well of course.

24             So, Mr. Pasalic, as you heard, the side calling you as asked for

25     ten hours, the Prosecution has asked for six hours in cross-examination,

Page 20461

 1     and after completion of the Prosecution's cross-examination, the floor

 2     will be given back to Mr. Cvijetic for his redirect examination of you.

 3     During or after the examinations by the two sides in this trial, the

 4     Judges may, at all points, put questions to you directly in order to

 5     clarify aspects of your testimony.

 6             But tell us, Mr. Pasalic, have you ever testified before this

 7     Tribunal before?

 8             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] No, Your Honours.

 9             JUDGE HARHOFF:  And have you given testimony about your expertise

10     in other courts in the former Yugoslavia?

11             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] No.

12             JUDGE HARHOFF:  So this is the first time that you are giving

13     testimony.  In that case, Mr. Pasalic, allow me to just briefly explain

14     to you how the proceedings in this court unfold.  Each of our sessions

15     last an hour and a half after which we need to take a break because the

16     tapes for the recordings of the proceedings have to be changed.  So every

17     90 minutes we will have a 20-minute break.  We begin in the morning at

18     9.00 and we adjourn at a quarter to 2.00 in the afternoon.  Since your

19     testimony is going to last over several days, you will then be required

20     to appear before this Chamber at 9.00 in this courtroom for the following

21     days.

22             Before I give the floor to Mr. Cvijetic, I would only remind you

23     that having made the solemn declaration that you read out in the

24     beginning, you have undertaken to speak the truth and nothing but the

25     truth and only the truth and the whole truth, and I should remind you

Page 20462

 1     that there is a severe penalty for providing false or incomplete

 2     information to the Chamber.  If you do so, you will expose yourself to

 3     the risk of being prosecuted for perjury.

 4             If you have any questions to us, please do not hesitate to put

 5     those questions to us right away and if you have no questions at this

 6     point, I think I'll just leave the floor to Mr. Cvijetic.  Do you have a

 7     question?

 8             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] No.

 9             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Very well.  Mr. Cvijetic, the floor is yours.

10                           Examination by Mr. Cvijetic:

11        Q.   [Interpretation] Mr. Pasalic, good day once again.

12        A.   Good day.

13        Q.   Judge Harhoff, so to speak, began the introductory part which is

14     obligatory in such situations because even though your CV was submitted

15     alongside your report, it is useful for you to tell the Trial Chamber

16     something about yourself live.  You have already done so, in part, and as

17     for the part which I believe to be relevant and which you have not been

18     asked about, I will just ask you a few additional questions about that.

19             Namely, what was left out is for you to enumerate just briefly

20     where you have been employed up until now and up until the work that you

21     are doing now, employed as a full professor in eastern Sarajevo.  Can you

22     just enumerate for us where you have worked up until now.

23        A.   Thank you, Mr. Defence attorney, Mr. Cvijetic.  I began my career

24     as a teacher in primary school in Zavidovici, in place where I lived from

25     1970 onwards.  After that, I taught in secondary schools where I taught

Page 20463

 1     statistics and some other economic and geographical subjects.  Then I was

 2     an expert advisor at the republic pedagogical institute seated in Zenica,

 3     and I worked that up until the outbreak of the war.  From 1993 onwards, I

 4     was senior teaching assistant at the university in eastern Sarajevo, and

 5     from 1996, I was assistant professor at the faculty of theology in

 6     Banja Luka and at the same time at the university in eastern Sarajevo and

 7     at the teachers college in Bijeljina.  Between 2001 and 2003, I performed

 8     the duty of deputy education minister in the government of

 9     Republika Srpska.  And in 2004, I was appointed the first president of

10     the republic council for demographic policy.  I was appointed by the

11     government of Republika Srpska.  Simultaneously, I was appointed as a

12     member of the commission for demographics and statistics of the academy

13     of arts and sciences of Republika Srpska.  And since 2008, I was a member

14     of the executive board of the agency for higher education and ensuring

15     the quality of education in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and I'm performing this

16     function to this day.

17             As I told the Judges, I'm professionally engaged at the faculty

18     in eastern Sarajevo as a full professor, and my field of expertise is

19     demographics and social geography.

20        Q.   Just to recapitulate, at how many universities are you teaching

21     at this moment?

22        A.   I'm fully employed at the university in eastern Sarajevo which

23     has now been integrated in accordance with the Bologna process.  But at

24     the same time, I am engaged as a visiting professor at the university in

25     Banja Luka and at the Singidunum University in Belgrade.  It's the

Page 20464

 1     business faculty from Valjevo which is privately owned.  They have all

 2     been integrated and organised in accordance with the Bologna Convention

 3     now.

 4        Q.   All right.  You mentioned membership in the executive committee

 5     for the agency for the development of higher education and ensuring the

 6     quality of education in Bosnia-Herzegovina, does this agency cover all of

 7     Bosnia-Herzegovina?  This is just my question.

 8        A.   Yes.  This is a newly-established agency for the development of

 9     higher education ensuring the quality of education in the territory of

10     Bosnia-Herzegovina and it is part of a network of European agencies for

11     higher education.  It is the key agency for monitoring the development of

12     higher education and accrediting high education institutions and

13     licence -- issuing licensing for their study programmes so that they

14     could work in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  So this is the most important agency

15     in the field of higher education and it is my pleasure that I'm one of

16     the members of the executive committee of this agency.

17        Q.   Professor, does this agency have anything to do with Bologna?

18     You know what I mean when I mention Bologna, I think that everyone knows

19     what this refers to.

20        A.   Yes, I'm just waiting for the proper time to start answering.

21     Yes, of course, I think I said that it is part of the network of European

22     agencies, and it's purview is based only on the Bologna process which

23     Bosnia-Herzegovina signed as most other European countries, and now this

24     Bologna convention it being implemented.  We are making the first steps.

25     But the agency has the key role in the development of higher education

Page 20465

 1     along the Bologna Convention principles.

 2        Q.   Before the break I only have sufficient time for one additional

 3     question.  Are you a member of any non-governmental organisations?

 4        A.   Yes.  I'm the president and founder of the centre for population

 5     and social research which has been registered at the level of

 6     Bosnia-Herzegovina, and it is seated in Zvornik where I am residing at

 7     the moment.

 8        Q.   Can you just tell us in one sentence what does your centre do and

 9     what is its main purpose, but just be brief?

10        A.   If you would like me to say that in one sentence, then, globally

11     speaking, it is the development of civil society in general from the

12     population and demographics aspect, primarily.

13        Q.   That is what I wanted to ask you, whether it is related with your

14     main expertise field and profession.

15             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honours, I see what the time

16     is, I would move to another topic anyway and it is the time to take the

17     break, I believe.

18             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Pasalic, although you would have only just

19     started your testimony, the Court would have been sitting since 9.00 and

20     it is time for the first of those breaks to which Judge Harhoff referred

21     when he introduced you.  So we would resume in 20 minutes.

22                           [The witness stands down]

23                           --- Recess taken at 10.25 a.m.

24                           --- On resuming at 10.51 a.m.

25                           [The witness takes the stand]

Page 20466

 1             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Mr. Pasalic, when I introduced you as a witness

 2     earlier today, I failed to mention one matter which is relevant to your

 3     testimony, and that is the fact that the Trial Chamber has assessed your

 4     curriculum vitae and has studied your report, and on this basis, the

 5     Chamber has decided to accept you as an expert witness in demography.

 6     The difference between testifying as an expert witness and an ordinary

 7     fact witness is that whereas fact witnesses can only testify objectively

 8     to the facts that they observed without making any comments about these

 9     facts, in contrast to that, expert witnesses are allowed and indeed

10     required to make inferences from the material that they have studied in

11     their expert reports and are also entitled and indeed required to draw

12     conclusions from the facts that you have studied.  So these are the

13     conditions under which you will testify here.  And maybe I should also

14     add since I see that you are wearing -- that you are using a crutch, that

15     if at any point you need to take a break, you can just ask for that and

16     we will accommodate you.

17             That's all for now.  Back to you, Mr. Cvijetic.

18             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Yes, maybe I omitted to say that

19     Mr. Pasalic recently had a -- sustained injuries in a traffic accident

20     and these are the consequences.

21        Q.   Mr. Pasalic, I'm going to ask you whether you have any

22     international experience.  Did you appear outside the borders of

23     Bosnia-Herzegovina?

24        A.   Yes.  I do have some international experience, of course to the

25     extent the conditions allowed.  But I do consider it very important that

Page 20467

 1     I took part in some international conferences, mostly about higher

 2     education and the Bologna process or some related topics with regard to

 3     Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 4             In October 2001, I attended an international conference in

 5     Strasbourg as a representative Bosnia-Herzegovina with

 6     Ms. Alamija Tanomic [phoen].  In 2002, I also attended an international

 7     conference about higher education in Lisbon, in April, where I was the

 8     only representative of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Let me add immediately that

 9     in the framework of these conferences, there was discussion comprising

10     introductory presentations or discussions in which I also took part.

11     Likewise, in 2002, I made an appearance at the Landek [phoen] University

12     in Switzerland - that's a private school - and they had a private

13     education for peace.  And I headed the delegation for Bosnia-Herzegovina

14     at that event with Ms. Meliha Alic, who was, until recently, the minister

15     of education in the government of the Federation of BH.  After that, I

16     attended a number of international conferences and scientific gatherings

17     mostly in the neighbouring countries such as Serbia or Croatia.  So that

18     to this day I have attending about a dozen scientific conferences and I

19     also made presentations there that were published in scientific journals,

20     some of which are on the EC lists and that is very important for

21     university professors.

22        Q.   You probably noticed that I and the Trial Chamber, too, are

23     interested in topics from the area of demography.  Did you go to these

24     neighbouring countries to discuss demographic matters?

25        A.   Yes, certainly, apart from the international conferences about

Page 20468

 1     higher education that covered the entire area of higher education and I

 2     always placed a special stress on the student population and structure of

 3     teaching staff and very few people deal with that.  However, that's a

 4     matter very important for Bosnia-Herzegovina because the young population

 5     has undergone a certain transformation so that our contingents are

 6     smaller now.

 7             At scientific conferences in neighbouring countries, I took part

 8     in such events, both in Serbia and Croatia, and I discussed changes in

 9     rural areas of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  I always took a -- singled out a

10     municipality as a reference, in this case Foca; whereas in Serbia, I

11     focused on the problems of the young population, the student population

12     in Republika Srpska.  And then there is a number of other works that I

13     classified in accordance with the international APA standards which can

14     be seen from my professional bibliography which is attached.

15        Q.   Thank you.  Do you have any international appearances planned for

16     this year?

17        A.   Yes.  There will be a lot of such activity.  I consider my

18     appearance here before this Tribunal very important, and I believe, or

19     rather, I see it as a recognition for myself as a professor.  But there

20     are also some very serious international scientific congresses that will

21     take place both in Bosnia-Herzegovina and beyond.  I primarily refer to

22     Croatia and Serbia, our neighbouring countries, where regularly attend

23     such international conferences, but if I'm invited, I also go to other

24     countries in the region or even beyond.

25        Q.   I believe that it was this year or late last year Ms. Ewa Tabeau

Page 20469

 1     had a book presentation in Belgrade.  Were you invited?

 2        A.   Yes, I was invited to the event.  Unfortunately for

 3     health-related reasons, I couldn't attend but I was able to get a copy of

 4     Ms. Tabeau's book.  I tried to reach the essence of her research in the

 5     short time that I have had this book and I think I'll be able to say more

 6     about that here.  I have studied the works of Ewa Tabeau and some of her

 7     co-workers because there are very few works that deal with the processes

 8     in the war and in the post-war period in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  So that I

 9     hope that in due time I will be able to use this information for my own

10     research and publish a similar work as that of Ewa Tabeau, however,

11     somewhat shorter because I don't have such logistic support in the form

12     of institutions, et cetera, for such extensive research.

13        Q.   Professor, you have just mentioned something that I wanted to ask

14     you about later, but I'll ask you now.  Which authoritative sources from

15     Bosnia-Herzegovina or other countries do acknowledge as authors that

16     deserve attention when it comes to demographic changes and processes in

17     Bosnia-Herzegovina?

18        A.   I hope I will not be subjective in my answer.  It is difficult to

19     be very objective because we all have our personal opinions about these

20     things.  However, the most extensive research has so far been done by

21     Ewa Tabeau and her co-workers and the information and documentation

22     centre whose president is Mirsad Tokaca in Sarajevo.  And without false

23     modesty, I believe that my works must also be mentioned in this context.

24     They -- their scope is a bit more modest but I couldn't access all

25     sources necessary.  However, all these works, including mine, can also be

Page 20470

 1     viewed critically.

 2        Q.   Thank you.  Then we have already arrived at your work, so tell us

 3     briefly how many books you published, how many papers, and please single

 4     out only those that you consider relevant for the Trial Chamber and your

 5     work.  I made a joke and when I suggested to you that you bring all these

 6     to The Hague and then you answered then you would need a truck in that

 7     case.  So don't use a truck, just single out a few that deal with the

 8     area that we are interested in.

 9        A.   I've so far published nine books, nine books of university

10     significance.  However, not all books are meant to be textbooks for

11     students.  Some are also meant for the general audience.  I can single

12     out two books that are important for the subject matter we are speaking

13     about.  I have one of them here, "The Suffering of Serbs and Serb

14     Settlements in Bosnia-Herzegovina," which was published in 1997.  I

15     collected data from 1992 up until 1996 and I can state very briefly that

16     after it's publication, in two months, or rather, within two months,

17     eight and a half thousand persons read it online and it was rated as one

18     of the ten top or most-read books on the Internet.  The last thing I saw

19     on the Internet is that it's now in 35th place, although it's been more

20     than ten years since its publication.

21             I have since amended a book of similar content which is titled,

22     "The Anthropogenic Reality of the Serbs in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the

23     Period from 1992 through 2000."  And that book was used for my expert

24     report and I also have a copy here.  This is as far as books go, but in

25     our work, we -- or rather, as part of my work, we are obliged to take

Page 20471

 1     part in scientific conferences and I mention some two dozen papers, most

 2     of which deal with demographic matters.  There's no need to read them out

 3     because you have had the opportunity to see that yourselves.  I would

 4     just point out the demographic problems of the RS or the problems of

 5     natality which is a burning problem in not only Bosnia-Herzegovina but in

 6     all of Europe now.  And at the conference of the academy of arts and

 7     sciences, I made a presentation about the natality and fertility of the

 8     young population, and so on.

 9             There are also the works that I mentioned that I presented in

10     Serbia and Croatia.  These works were very highly ranked.  Professional

11     or expert works are targeted at a young or general public, so I don't

12     want to mention any in particular.  The most relevant from the area of

13     demography are scientific projects and research projects in which I have

14     so far participated as the leader of some 20 or so projects with -- which

15     were very highly ranked with, say, the Ministry of Science and Technology

16     of Republika Srpska.  And you can see in the enclosed bibliography that

17     these projects were very significant.

18             Let me mention that I'm the first head of a project team that

19     deals with the development policy of the RS.  That is the first work in

20     Bosnia-Herzegovina albeit only one entity that endeavoured to deal with

21     the current demographic problems that are extremely present in

22     Bosnia-Herzegovina even in the post-war period because demographic loss

23     has been great, both during the war and after it.  We'll probably get the

24     chance to discuss that.  And then there are also some other very

25     significant projects that you will be able to see on the list of my -- my

Page 20472

 1     bibliography list.

 2             You may have noticed that these works are mostly about the RS

 3     entity, but that is because they are public tenders where you apply under

 4     a coded name, they don't know who you are in reality, and then the

 5     process begins.  Very few projects have been done in Bosnia-Herzegovina

 6     about this subject matter, so we couldn't apply for seats in these

 7     projects.  Only recently did I apply through my NGO, I applied for a

 8     project about the fertility of the young population in

 9     Bosnia-Herzegovina, but we will see what the results of that project will

10     be in the coming period.

11             And then there are also scientific conferences mentioned here.  I

12     was the reviewer of some very significant papers that I mentioned in the

13     bibliography and some works from the EC list or from journals that have

14     the so-called SCI index.

15        Q.   In the proofing notes, you just noted that a subheading was

16     omitted.  We can conclude that you also were a tutor to candidates who

17     were drafting their doctoral theses.  That's in section D; am I right?

18        A.   Yes, you are.  That's on page 79, after section D, published

19     expert papers.  The subheading is missing, stating that I was a tutor or

20     co-tutor or member of a commission for the drafting of a masters or

21     doctoral theses.

22        Q.   Very well, I'll finish this part with another question.  Have you

23     taken part in publish debates or polemics with colleagues, with

24     co-experts?  Did you -- did you take part in any confrontation of

25     opinions in Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Page 20473

 1        A.   I'm one of those scientists and researchers or professors who

 2     accept such confrontation.  Unfortunately, there are few of us in

 3     Bosnia-Herzegovina who deal with this subject matter, but almost daily I

 4     am present in the media in Bosnia-Herzegovina because they invite me to

 5     interpret some things that have to do with demographic processes in

 6     Bosnia-Herzegovina.  I accept these invitations gladly and provide data

 7     if they are available to me.  Those who have more intensively or in an

 8     expert fashion dealt with these matters in the Federation of

 9     Bosnia-Herzegovina are unfortunately no longer alive, but we still use

10     their expert works.  However, there are very few expert confrontations of

11     opinions in the area of demography.

12        Q.   In the introductory part of your expert report, and let me state

13     for the Trial Chamber that your work has been filed under 1D062149, and

14     we'll start with the first page after the cover page.  Let us first

15     explain how you -- how you came to be commissioned as an expert in this

16     trial.  And my specific question to you is when the Stanisic Defence

17     first set up contact with you as an expert for this subject matter?

18        A.   I think that initially they called me in around 2007, but it was

19     a very short contact because at the time it was already known that I'm

20     dealing with these issues and that I was perhaps the only one in

21     Republika Srpska.  So we had a brief contact about that and then we got

22     in touch again last year when we talked about my possible view of these

23     issues and the possibility of writing an expert report.  I gladly

24     accepted that but I offered my own concept the way I see these problems

25     as I know them best, and I said that I would not deal with the issues

Page 20474

 1     that I do not really know much about and for which I do not think I'm

 2     competent, because I think that would be useful for anyone in these

 3     proceedings.  So I offered a draft which the Defence accepted, and after

 4     that, I accepted to work on the report.  We have it here after some

 5     methodological changes were applied to it.

 6        Q.   As for the draft which you offered us, did Defence add anything

 7     else as part of your task?  Can you remember that?

 8        A.   I offered my draft to the Defence, but I think that there were

 9     some suggests which were given, namely that I should give an overview of

10     the work of Ms. Ewa Tabeau and her associates, which I did in my report,

11     and it's possible that there were some other technical details that were

12     discussed.  It was suggested that there should be division into

13     paragraphs because otherwise it looked more like a scholarly publication

14     in accordance with scholarly standards, but it was adjusted to the

15     standards which are used at the Tribunal here, these were the minor

16     suggestions from the Defence.  But in the professional sense, in the

17     sense of the field of expertise, the Defence didn't go into that.

18        Q.   Did you receive works of Ms. Ewa Tabeau from the Defence, and if

19     so, which documents did you receive?

20        A.   I did on two occasions.  One of the works is here.  They have

21     certain numbers.  I'm not sure how I should quote them here but these are

22     works of Ms. Ewa Tabeau and her associates in the Slobodan Milosevic case

23     and Mico Stanisic and Stojan Zupljanin case.  I studied these works, I

24     received a CD with an audio recording which I listened to.  What I

25     managed to get on my own, as I told you, is the book of Ms. Ewa Tabeau,

Page 20475

 1     "The War in Numbers:  The War in the Former Yugoslavia."  It has around

 2     1200 pages and I just studied the parts of the book that deal with the

 3     territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina, at least up until now.

 4        Q.   It has been suggested to me that I should ask you to speak a

 5     little bit more slowly so that the interpreters will be able to translate

 6     everything you say.  Just tell me, have you --

 7             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, couldn't we have

 8     clarification of what was on the CD, please.  I mean, it's there in the

 9     evidence, but you don't know what was on it.  And for it to have meaning,

10     you should know what was -- what the contents were.

11             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] That was about to be my question,

12     but Mr. Gramsci was faster.

13        Q.   Have you followed the appearances of Ms. Ewa Tabeau before we

14     engaged you in this case as a professional and as a scholar?  Did you

15     follow her testimonies before this Tribunal?

16        A.   Yes.  You know that the proceedings can be followed on the

17     Internet, and I did it even before I was engaged by the Stanisic and

18     Zupljanin Defence.  I cannot remember the cases in which she testified

19     that I was aware of, but I had some of that at my disposal and that

20     includes the CD which includes her testimonies which I have listened to.

21     Of course I followed her testimonies because these are problem areas that

22     I find to be very interesting.

23        Q.   Just to be specific in answer to the Prosecutor's intervention,

24     the CD has the recording of Ms. Tabeau's testimonies before this Tribunal

25     and you have listened to that; right?

Page 20476

 1        A.   Yes, yes.

 2        Q.   Fine.  Professor, I will move on to something else.  Please tell

 3     me whether demographics as a science has its branches or fields and what

 4     would be the branch that you are closest to.  But, I apologise, before

 5     you answer my question so as to avoid any confusion, please tell the

 6     Trial Chamber and everyone else what you have on the desk before you.  I

 7     think we still owe the explanation.  What are the reports that you have

 8     in front of you?

 9        A.   In addition to my own report which I have before me and the

10     report relating to the Stanisic and Zupljanin case, which is before me, I

11     also have my original book, "The Anthropological and Geographical

12     Actuality in Bosnia-Herzegovina."  I have the book from which I used

13     statistical data directly while I wrote my report, that's "The Ethnic

14     Composition of the Population of Bosnia-Herzegovina."  I also have

15     photocopies of some quotations from two books.  "The Population of

16     Bosnia-Herzegovina" is one and "The Population of Republika Srpska."  I

17     also used valid statistical data from these sources in my report.  And,

18     of course, I also have a full list of the census of population of

19     Bosnia-Herzegovina according to the ethnic composition which was

20     published in 1995 in Zagreb.  If necessary, I will explain what it is;

21     namely, the information concerning Bosnia-Herzegovina have not been

22     published up until that time because of the outbreak of the war.  It was

23     only in 1998 that the federal statistics institute published statistical

24     annual journal which includes the data from the publication which was

25     published in 1995 in the Republic of Croatia in Zagreb.  It is somewhat

Page 20477

 1     absurd for demographers or from our point of view, but due to the war and

 2     the circumstances, first we received the data published in another

 3     country rather than in Bosnia-Herzegovina itself.  This is what I have

 4     before me today.

 5             Of course I brought some other sources with me, but the majority

 6     of the sources that I used was left behind because, as I have explained,

 7     it would have been impossible to transport them all to such a distance,

 8     especially as my movements are limited so that I would be able to

 9     transport such an amount of materials.

10        Q.   All right.  Thank you.  Now I will go back to my question, if you

11     don't remember, I will repeat.  Does the demographics as a science have

12     its branches or fields, and which of the fields is perhaps the one

13     closest to your expertise?

14        A.   I will try not to talk as when I teach students.  Of course

15     demographics is the science on the population and has its own

16     disciplines.  But in the territory of the former Yugoslav Republics, we

17     mostly study demographics as a general scientific discipline.  There are

18     no so-called narrow scientific fields, such as Ms. Ewa Tabeau is, I

19     think, the statistical demographer, and so on.  But within demographics

20     everyone chooses, according to his own preferences, one of the

21     discipline, whether this be the migrations of the population or the

22     dynamics of population change or population policy or history or graphic

23     demographics or a series of other disciplines.  And then one focuses in

24     one's papers on these fields, or perhaps it could be vital statistics

25     including the birth-rate and the mortality rate of the population, and so

Page 20478

 1     on and so forth.

 2        Q.   Professor, as for ethnic demographics, is knowledge of that

 3     discipline relevant for studying demographics in Bosnia-Herzegovina?

 4        A.   There is ethnic demographics and also ethnology, this is a

 5     difference that may be drawn.  These are two very important disciplines

 6     within demographics as a science, and we have to emphasise both of these

 7     when we talk about Bosnia-Herzegovina because this is, from the

 8     historical point of view, a multi-ethnic area.  The ethnic demographics

 9     is a study of people and its placement in one specific area and ethnology

10     also studies people which focuses on customs, culture, and other

11     characteristics of specific peoples.  So by the definition, these are

12     very important disciplines for Bosnia-Herzegovina and you can see from my

13     report that an emphasis was placed on ethnodemographic movements and

14     trends in Bosnia-Herzegovina before, during, and after the war.  But I

15     suppose we'll have occasion to discuss this in further detail later on.

16        Q.   All right.  So what characterises the area of Bosnia-Herzegovina

17     as you would define it, as briefly as you can?

18        A.   Among the former Yugoslav Republics, Bosnia-Herzegovina has the

19     most complex ethnodemographic characteristics.  It is undoubtedly an

20     issue that needs to be dealt with.  In addition to the multi-ethnic

21     characteristics of Bosnia-Herzegovina, the three constituent peoples and

22     dozens of ethnic minorities which are precisely listed in the annual

23     publications, this is what characterises Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Where

24     within the borders one can single out spaces where there are dominant

25     ethnic groups but also areas where the ethnic groups have been mixed to a

Page 20479

 1     great degree.  So very often it was figuratively said that in the

 2     ethnodemographic sense, the area of Bosnia-Herzegovina is like a leopard

 3     skin.

 4        Q.   Professor, what are the main natural and social factors that

 5     influence the changes in the ethnic structure, distribution, and the

 6     general characteristics of the population in Bosnia-Herzegovina?

 7        A.   You can see in my report that I covered the entire 20th century

 8     when I discussed the ethnodemographic development in Bosnia-Herzegovina

 9     precisely because of the very complex natural and social factors which

10     had an impact on the development of its population throughout the

11     20th century and also now in early 21st century.  Namely, the natural

12     factors are really varied.  Bosnia-Herzegovina is a predominantly

13     mountainous country, and in the mountain areas the living conditions were

14     very harsh and the population was always subject to migrating, moving to

15     big cities or moving out to neighbouring or third countries which I

16     explained in great detail in my report.

17             What is even more complex are the social conditions in

18     Bosnia-Herzegovina.  From the historical perspective, the peoples of

19     Bosnia-Herzegovina, if we take into account the history of the country,

20     the historical facts, this is something that has to be taken into account

21     whichever issue one deals with.  There were always these migration trends

22     and counter-trends.  Generally, in the world migrations have their trends

23     and counter-trends.  What does that mean in this case?  Serbs or Croats

24     were always focused on the neighbouring countries, that is to say Serbia

25     and Croatia throughout history.  As for the Muslims, or now Bosniaks as

Page 20480

 1     they are called, they were focused towards Turkey so the area of

 2     Bosnia-Herzegovina is an emigration area exclusively up until this day.

 3     The population has always been moving out because of natural factors and

 4     numerous social factors which are historical focused on neighbouring

 5     countries, economic factors which are dominant to this day which we have

 6     proved through empirical research, some sociological factors, and

 7     certainly the ethnodemographic factors which we'll talk more about.

 8             I'm willing to elaborate even on the issues as the Trial Chamber

 9     has allowed, I believe, which are not covered by the report but which

10     support my arguments about very intense migration movements in the area

11     of Bosnia-Herzegovina, that is to say, the emigration of the population

12     in Bosnia-Herzegovina, their leaving of the area.  To a much smaller

13     degree, we have the moving in of people to Bosnia-Herzegovina which is

14     immigration.  So we say that the migration saldo is always negative in

15     this area.

16             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, I'm not objecting but I

17     just think that you ought to have a clarification or that Mr. Cvijetic

18     ought to seek a clarification and that is on the use of the term

19     "focused."  The witness has said that:

20             "Serbs and Croats were always focused on their neighbouring

21     countries, that is to say Serbia and Croatia.  And as for the Muslims or

22     now Bosniaks ... they are always focused towards Turkey."

23             Are we to understand that, that the word "focused" there means

24     that they migrate or emigrate to those places?  Serbs and Croats go to

25     Serbia and Croatia, and Bosniaks and Muslims go to Turkey.  It's

Page 20481

 1     important, I think, for us to understand that since the witness is using

 2     that terms, and the way I read that passage of evidence, I thought it was

 3     a reference to emigrate or migration to those places but it's not clear.

 4             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

 5        Q.   Professor, you have heard the intervention, I will not suggest to

 6     you how you should answer.  Please explain this.  And to ask you

 7     directly, which period did you have in mind when you said emigration to

 8     Turkey, which historical period did you have in mind?

 9        A.   Yes.  Of course I will do that willingly.  I had in mind a longer

10     historical period.  I don't directly have in mind the period of the

11     latest war.  This is why my report in the first chapter includes the

12     historical or the ethnodemographic section on Bosnia-Herzegovina.  These

13     are valid statistical data which I included in my work, namely the

14     percentages which were determined when censuses were carried out that the

15     Serbs would move to Serbia, Croats to Croatia and Muslims in the

16     direction of Turkey, as we said.  But the percentages were much smaller

17     than the percentage of Serbs and Croats were who were moving out to the

18     two neighbouring countries, Serbia and Croatia.  It is very precisely

19     stated in my works but I thought that we would, during my testimony,

20     reach the specific paragraphs which I am ready to explain and information

21     contained therein.  So we'll have an occasion to clarify every paragraph.

22     Whatever I have included in my report I hope that can explain and clarify

23     everything when answering the questions.

24        Q.   If I understood you well, the negative migration balance comes

25     from the fact that much greater number leaves an area than is the number

Page 20482

 1     of people arriving to the area.  Would you please help us, in one

 2     sentence?

 3        A.   Yes, you are quite right, but that pertains to Bosnia-Herzegovina

 4     in its entirety.  Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole has a negative

 5     migration balance on average, that's how it was up until the war.  In

 6     1992, between 13- to 17.000 people more left the area than came in,

 7     however this trend continues to this day and I can prove this with

 8     official statistical data.  Let me be fully clear, I do not use any

 9     figures arbitrarily, I rely on the most reliable sources and the most

10     relevant one is this statistical bureau of Bosnia-Herzegovina and other

11     agencies of which there are three.

12        Q.   Professor, the frequent wars in Bosnia-Herzegovina did they

13     affect migration of the population in that area?

14        A.   Naturally.  I would say that that is the key problem for the

15     development of the population Bosnia-Herzegovina, and I will illustrate

16     this with official data.  Bosnia and Herzegovina is among the former, or

17     rather, among the former Yugoslav Republic -- had the greatest war

18     losses, which according to some data and all data is based on assessments

19     we cannot have fully accurate data when it comes to war.  In the

20     First World War there were 320.000 lives lost and in the Second World War

21     700.000 lives were lost which was directly and indirectly caused by war.

22             If necessary, I can clarify what is considered as war losses,

23     demographic losses, and so on, which is very relevant for the area of

24     Bosnia-Herzegovina.  I think that this historical context in Bosnia and

25     Herzegovina greatly affected the psychosis and the insecurity that

Page 20483

 1     existed in Bosnia and Herzegovina before the war and then when the most

 2     intense operations began, that also affected the movement of the

 3     population in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  I hope we will get to that.

 4             THE INTERPRETER:  Could the witness kindly speak slower.

 5             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

 6        Q.   We are now on paragraph 9 of your report.

 7             JUDGE HARHOFF:  Mr. Pasalic, the interpreters kindly ask you to

 8     speak slowly because they have to interpret and if they don't catch what

 9     you say, the Chamber will never know.  So please bear in mind that you

10     have to speak slowly and distinctly and do not overlap with questions put

11     to you by counsel from either side.  Thank you.

12             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

13        Q.   Professor, I'm now on paragraph 9 of your expert report.  Would

14     you please turn to that part.  Under the table given by you, and this is

15     where you speak about the factors that you just mentioned, you spoke

16     about the political, economic, demographic factors and at the end you

17     mention socio-political factors, do you see that?

18        A.   Yes.

19        Q.   I'd like to know whether these same factors which were in place

20     before the war also affected the war time migration of the population in

21     Bosnia-Herzegovina?

22        A.   As an illustration, I chose three municipalities, Zavidovici

23     municipality, which is where I lived; that is to say that I directly

24     participated in these events, and this is why I considered it relevant as

25     I'm one of the best placed people to speak about these events.  I also

Page 20484

 1     included Kljuc municipality and Sanski Most municipality which are all in

 2     the indictment in this case.

 3             What does statistical data speak of here?  We had an official

 4     census in 1991 and then we had data for 2009 where we see the assessments

 5     coming from the Federal Bureau for Statistics concerning these three

 6     municipalities which exist within the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 7     All of these factors can best be illustrated by using these three

 8     municipalities as an example.  As you can see, 1991 all three

 9     municipalities had greater population than in 2009.  Naturally, Serbs

10     moved out, as did Croats, and one could say, well, very well, the

11     Bosniaks remained in that area and this is how this can be explained.

12     However, it's not how it was.

13             Five to 10.000 displaced people came to live in Zavidovici.  They

14     mostly came from Eastern Bosnia, predominantly from Srebrenica.  In Kljuc

15     municipality, also a number of displaced persons came to live, fewer than

16     in Zavidovici.  As for Sanski Most municipality, they had a large number

17     of population in 1991, and that in 2009, they had 16.000 people left.

18     Serbs and Croats moved out --

19             THE INTERPRETER:  Interpreter's correction:  16.000 people less

20     in 2009.

21             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Serbs and Croats moved out, and

22     based on that, we can conclude that both during the war and after the

23     war, the domicile Muslim population also moved out of this municipality.

24     This confirms my thesis that economic factors were quite strong, both

25     during the war and after the war, as were social, political and

Page 20485

 1     demographic factors.  And, naturally, there was a factor called forced

 2     migration which is inevitable in any war, including Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 3     By illustrating these facts, this data, we will see that by way of this

 4     example I showed that it is not misplaced to criticise and to challenge

 5     data from the expert report of Madam Tabeau and also in the work of

 6     research and investigation centre of Mirsad Tokaca.  Why do I mention

 7     these two persons?  I do so because they conducted the most comprehensive

 8     research of these issues in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 9             This is why I think my expert report complements their work and

10     helps provide a more realistic picture of the situation in the

11     demographic sense, both during the war and after the war in

12     Bosnia-Herzegovina.  And by your leave, I will paraphrase the words of

13     Madam Tabeau.  She and her associates when assessing or evaluating the

14     project of the research and documentation centre of Mirsad Tokaca which

15     is called "The Bosnian Book of the Dead."  She said that it was very

16     important to use a large number of sources, to use different methodology

17     or methodological approaches.  This is why it was quite sufficient for me

18     to give a critical view of the work, both of this research and

19     documentation centre and the work of Mrs. Tabeau.

20             So this was a very polite comment by Mrs. Tabeau with which I

21     fully agree because any war, including the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina,

22     causes a situation where final data is still not available when it comes

23     to the victims of war and all of demographic processes.  This requires

24     very comprehensive research and this is something that Mrs. Tabeau also

25     finally accepted and included in her work, and I share this opinion.

Page 20486

 1        Q.   When I asked you whether these factors, the factors that I

 2     enumerated in the previous question which can be seen in paragraph 9,

 3     whether they affected the migration during the war, I wanted to focus on

 4     the following:  Did this change the ranking of these conditions or these

 5     factors?  Did some of them in this new situation become more dominant,

 6     more important than others?  That's the point of my question.

 7        A.   If I understood you well, you are referring to current

 8     contemporary factors.  If we are speaking of current contemporary

 9     factors, then I would like to highlight the economic factors.  All of our

10     research in Bosnia-Herzegovina indicated that this is the main reason for

11     all population movements and motivation for people moving out of Bosnia

12     and Herzegovina, especially the young one in the age group between 20 and

13     40 years of age.  And this is the most mobile segment of the population.

14             And then political and some other factors are much less present

15     when it comes to motives for leaving the area.  We could add some other

16     factors that also affect very intense migrational movements.

17        Q.   As a follow-up question, Professor, let me ask you this:  To what

18     extent did the liberalisation of the visa regime for the European Union

19     and some other non-European countries affect the movements of the

20     population in Bosnia-Herzegovina?

21        A.   This liberalisation of the visa regime was hailed by the

22     population in Bosnia-Herzegovina, especially young and qualified

23     workforce, who, for economic reasons, want to find better life outside of

24     Bosnia and Herzegovina.  Some of the research that we used, such as

25     polls, questionnaires, and other recognised methods, including research

Page 20487

 1     conducted by me, among the most sensitive segment of the population which

 2     are the highly-educated residents, indicates that about 70 per cent of

 3     the young residents left Bosnia-Herzegovina mainly for economic reasons.

 4     Only a very small percentage, some 5 per cent of the residents, left the

 5     area out of political or some other reasons.  Therefore, this

 6     liberalisation of the visa regime had quite an effect.

 7             On the other hands, we believe that it is unrealistic to expect

 8     people to leave at such a high rate because European countries are no

 9     longer immigration countries.  They do not accept an unlimited number of

10     immigrants.  So a large number of people want to leave, but it is

11     questionable whether they will, indeed, be able to leave.  This opens up

12     some other questions, how to keep this young and educated population in

13     Bosnia and Herzegovina.  However, this is not the focus of my testimony

14     here today so I would not want to dwell on this any longer.

15        Q.   Let me put another question to you.  Let us go back to the war

16     events.  In your expert report in paragraph 212 in some other places, you

17     mentioned the so-called voluntary and forced migrations.  Would you

18     please explain that to the Trial Chamber.  What do you have in mind when

19     you say voluntary or spontaneous migration and when you say forced

20     migration?  Would you please define them.

21        A.   Essentially, during the war, all migrations are mostly forced

22     migrations.  However, they can be divided into several categories and

23     this is very important for this case.  I wanted to highlight this in my

24     work.  It would have been better, perhaps, if I put voluntary under

25     quotation marks.  Using my own example, I voluntarily left the area where

Page 20488

 1     I lived in early 1992 when the war began.  However, there was a dose of

 2     fear, a dose of insecurity, experience from previous war periods,

 3     especially in the areas where some ethnic groups were in minority.  And

 4     then spontaneously, or under quotation marks, voluntarily, the population

 5     moved out even before the conflict arose.  They moved either outside of

 6     Bosnia and Herzegovina or within Bosnia and Herzegovina to places where

 7     they felt safer.  Every ethnic group mostly moved towards the area where

 8     their ethnic community was dominant.

 9             So the data from 1992 indicates that this transfer of the

10     population was quite present in Bosnia and Herzegovina.  I have to stress

11     that this was not sufficiently explained both in the work of Mrs. Tabeau

12     and in the work of Mr. Tokaca from the research and documentation centre.

13     The movement, the transfer of the population in war time needs to be

14     classified.  This is not unknown in the world academic circles.  There is

15     ethnic cleansing.  There is deportation and persecution of population.

16     So we have ethnic cleansing, we have deportation, we have persecution and

17     we have voluntary moving out under quotation marks.  The ethnic cleansing

18     indicates that the population was moved out by way of using force and

19     quickly, and not all of the movement of the population can be classified

20     under this category.  This is why, in my opinion, it was very important

21     to clarify this and to explain this further since this was not done

22     either in the work of Mrs. Tabeau or in the work of other institutions.

23     I keep mentioning the research and documentation centre, even though they

24     don't seem to be the most relevant source for this case.

25             During my testimony here if it is real relevant for you, I would

Page 20489

 1     like to spend more time explaining this phenomenon.  So ethnic cleansing

 2     is only that phenomenon which encompasses that the population was moved

 3     out by way of using force and quickly.  This is not something that

 4     happened in all areas of Bosnia-Herzegovina, especially not in all areas

 5     in the indictment in this case.  There were also cases of transfer of

 6     population and deportation including regions where one or the other or

 7     the third ethnic community was dominant one.  So this is how the people

 8     moved and I can assure you that this process continues to this very day.

 9        Q.   Professor, when transfer of the population occurs, when a group

10     of population leaves an area and comes to another area where people from

11     their ethnic community have majority, does this cause the domino effect

12     or does this cause the effect of connected vessels and does this effect

13     movement of population from other ethnic communities?

14        A.   The way I see it and according to my research and this is

15     confirmed by all statistical data, what happened during the war in

16     Bosnia-Herzegovina is crucial.  If, for example, and that's what I

17     mention in some paragraphs, or rather, that's -- that was the way it was

18     in the Bijeljina municipality, and I also explained why.  Twenty-four

19     thousand Muslims left the area, to put it mildly.  At the same time,

20     39.000 Serbs settled in the Bijeljina area.  That's what we call the

21     connected vessels effect, or the domino effect, if you will.

22             These are these spontaneous migrations that I mentioned.  When

23     one ethnic group arrives in an area, they simply take the settled areas

24     of the ethnic group, that's in the minority there.  This letter going to

25     the areas that were left vacant after the departure of another ethnic

Page 20490

 1     group.  These are the most intensive processes that happened in

 2     Bosnia-Herzegovina.  I personally think -- although I don't want to go

 3     into the military aspect, I think that there was no institution that

 4     could have prevented these movements, mostly out of fear for themselves,

 5     for their families, for their survival, but also economically.  Reserves

 6     of food were depleting and people were actually scared of starvation.

 7             And I can say that I've been through that.  That was the

 8     situation in the town where I lived before the war.  Such was the

 9     atmosphere before the -- before open conflict in many parts of

10     Bosnia-Herzegovina because we must clearly point out that not every area

11     was directly affected by the war.  Indirectly yes, but not necessarily

12     directly, and that's general knowledge.

13        Q.   Professor, you often use, and I'll state paragraphs 6 and 10 as a

14     reference, the term ethnic territorial homogenisation.  You use that term

15     often, so could you please explain it to us?

16        A.   Yes.  All my explanations of the ethnodemographic movements in

17     the war, and I also researched the post-war period, can corroborate the

18     basic thesis that I put forward and that is the ethnic territorial

19     homogenisation.  This is not a known thing internationally.  This

20     happened from times of antiquity on, for economic reasons; in the middle

21     ages, for religious reasons.  During the colonisation of the Americas or

22     Australia, Aboriginals and the native population was pushed back.  In the

23     20th centuries, it was especially ethnic minorities that were suppressed,

24     and thus we arrive at the period of 1992 through 1995 where this process

25     was very pronounced.

Page 20491

 1             Ethnic territorial homogenisation means that the population of

 2     one, the other, and the third ethnic group was directed to those areas or

 3     regions in Bosnia-Herzegovina where one of these was dominant.  That's

 4     for example, Central Bosnia for the Muslims, north-west Bosnia, or, more

 5     specifically, the Cazin region, and then the north-east Bosnia or the

 6     Tuzla region which is very densely populated, and, finally, Eastern

 7     Bosnia.  The Serbs were oriented toward the Krajina where the

 8     concentration of that population was most prominent in the Banja Luka

 9     region.  Then in north-east Bosnia, I'm referring to Semberija,

10     Bijeljina, and so on, through Majevica, parts of Eastern Bosnia and

11     Sarajevo Romanija area.  The Croatian population was concentrated in

12     Western Herzegovina, where nowadays there's a symbolic proportion of

13     Serbs and Muslims, as well as in enclaves, in Central Bosnia, Zepce and

14     the surrounding areas, and in Northern Bosnia parts of the Posavina, the

15     areas of Odzak and Orasje.  These are, today, those ethnic regions where

16     one, the other, or the third ethnic group is dominant.  I can corroborate

17     that with a number of examples.  I can give you the example of large

18     cities such as Sarajevo, Banja Luka, Mostar, Zenica, Tuzla and others.

19        Q.   Professor, there's another term that you often use, you say that

20     as a result of that there has been a simplification of the ethnic mosaic.

21     Can you put that in relation to the leopard skin that you have mentioned.

22     What would that map be like if we were to colour it using the colours

23     that I usually use to represent the three ethnicities in

24     Bosnia-Herzegovina?  You know that there were those maps that were --

25     municipalities were represented in a certain colour standing for certain

Page 20492

 1     ethnicity.  What would that map be like now if we were to colour it?

 2        A.   Yes, I understand.  At any rate it certainly would no longer be a

 3     genuine leopard skin.  There were, or rather, there are individual

 4     colours that are dominant in certain areas, but there are still areas

 5     where the population is mixed.  However, the process is in progress, it

 6     doesn't stop with the end of the war.  In Bosnia-Herzegovina, it's still

 7     on-going, and this is something that is known from some international

 8     examples.  Population is a dynamic category, and the shares of some

 9     group -- of individual groups change.  In a couple of decades, the

10     demographic image with regard to the distribution of population may

11     change again, but we cannot know that.  It is simplified now because the

12     population is now ethnically concentrated.

13             I must points out the following:  Sarajevo is the capital city of

14     Bosnia-Herzegovina and according to the information from the Federal

15     Bureau of Statistics -- but I stress that these are estimates because

16     there has been no census since 1991.  We are the only ones in Europe who

17     have been without one for 20 years, and that makes our scientific

18     research more difficult because we lack valid statistical data.  But

19     according to estimates, Sarajevo is now populated by 90 per cent Bosniaks

20     and the remaining 10 per cent are Serbs, Croats and others.

21             Until the beginning of the war, the Muslims were dominant there

22     but they did -- their share was not over 50 per cent.  There were almost

23     40 per cent Serbs, and so on.  This is sufficient example for the

24     simplification of the ethnic mosaic in Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Certainly, I

25     can mention other examples too if you are interested, Banja Luka, Mostar

Page 20493

 1     or other towns can also serve as an example, but the situation is not the

 2     same.

 3        Q.   Before the break, let me ask you this question:  I will not speak

 4     about towns but in terms of regions.  If you were to speak in terms of

 5     colours, where would a colour be most solid, ethnically speaking, in

 6     which region?

 7        A.   I'll repeat, although I think I -- I've just explained.  The

 8     Sarajevo Zenica region, so let's boil it down to Central Bosnia and this

 9     region is the back bone of Central Bosnia, has a dominant Muslim

10     population.  This is a very simplified image because Zenica was

11     considered a very Yugoslav city until 1992, and Sarajevo, too, was

12     multi-ethnic.  The Tuzla region which is densely populated now has a

13     symbolic share of other ethnic groups.

14             On the other hand, the Banja Luka region has a dominant Serb

15     share in the population.  That was the case before, too, but it's more

16     dominant now.  Mostar, as you know, is still an ethnically divided town.

17     On the one side there are Croats, on the other side there are Bosniaks.

18     All of Western Herzegovina is basically a mono-ethnic area populated

19     mostly by Croats, and a small share of Serbs or Bosniaks mostly no longer

20     live there.  This is merely an illustration of the regional ethnic

21     situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina which speaks about very complex

22     ethnodemographic movements, very complex.  Many more researchers and

23     institutions should deal with these matters so that we can come up with

24     some opinions and offer some solutions.

25        Q.   If I understood you correctly, then that colour would be most

Page 20494

 1     solid in the area of the former Herceg-Bosna; am I right?

 2        A.   Yes, Herceg-Bosna, but I've also mentioned some other examples:

 3     Sarajevo, Zenica, and these other regions, of course.

 4             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honours, I note the time, I

 5     believe it's time for a break.

 6             JUDGE HALL:  So we would resume in 20 minutes.

 7                           [The witness stands down]

 8                           --- Recess taken at 12.08 p.m.

 9                           --- On resuming at 12.30 p.m.

10             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Krgovic, while we are waiting for the witness to

11     come in, how much time do you expect you would be with this witness?

12             MR. KRGOVIC:  Your Honour, probably not have question for this

13     witness.

14             JUDGE HALL:  I see.

15             MR. KRGOVIC:  Because he is joint expert.

16             JUDGE HALL:  Thank you.

17             MR. ZECEVIC:  Your Honours, in relation to that matter, there is

18     a question of scheduling of the next witness, Mr. Bjelosevic, who needs

19     to return for -- and I was approached by VWS so as to indicate when would

20     we expect Mr. Bjelosevic to return to The Hague.  I am in -- I said that

21     I'm in the hands of Trial Chamber on that matter because we still

22     don't -- we are not sure when this witness will end.  So I'm asking for

23     some sort of a guidance from the Trial Chamber.  I was -- I was -- my

24     intention was to say Sunday because I believe he is supposed to start on

25     Monday the 16th, but ...

Page 20495

 1                           [Trial Chamber confers]

 2             JUDGE HALL:  I was doing the calculations when this witness

 3     started, and it seems as if we are going to run into Monday with the

 4     present witness, so if Mr. Bjelosevic returns on Monday we should be able

 5     to pick him up on Tuesday.  That is our estimate.

 6             MR. ZECEVIC:  I understand, Your Honours.  I will notify VWS

 7     accordingly.  Thank you very much.

 8                           [The witness takes the stand]

 9             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Thank you, Your Honours.

10        Q.   Professor Pasalic, according to you, what is the starting point

11     for serious demographic research, the basis?

12        A.   The inevitable starting point in demography is valid statistical

13     data.  That means that we need data that we obtain by relevant research,

14     by the most relevant research.  In Bosnia-Herzegovina, that is the

15     population census.  This is the so-called traditional approach of the

16     population census.  There's also a population census that is conducted by

17     way of a population register which is applied by many countries in Europe

18     and beyond.

19             Other data make demographic research more difficult because they

20     stem from institutions whose primary goal is not demography or valid

21     demographic data.  This has been the crucial problem we've been facing

22     all this time in Bosnia-Herzegovina because, as I've already said, there

23     has been no population census since 1991.  And I'm talking about 20

24     years.  It is well known that the information obtained by way of a

25     population census is valid for five or seven years.  Nine years later

Page 20496

 1     they are no longer valid or useable because they no longer reflect the

 2     realistic image of the situation on the ground, that applies to

 3     Bosnia-Herzegovina too.

 4             Apart from a database which is important for demographic

 5     research, there are also secondary sources which are also very important.

 6     Highly-ranked scientific papers, journals, projects, et cetera.  If you

 7     have that at your disposal, then you can endeavour to make a

 8     comprehensive demographic research.  But I must point out that in

 9     scientific research you cannot take everything from others.  The most

10     highly valued part of the job is what you research yourself and present

11     in your work.  This is usually done through empirical research, original

12     scientific research in practice, and so on, which in my report is present

13     and I believe that was the most valuable part of my research.

14        Q.   Professor, where do you think that polls or questionnaires and

15     similar methods rank?

16        A.   Yes.  In scientific research, these are so-called tools, the

17     tools that we use to research some events, especially where there are no

18     primary data sources such as those obtained through a population census

19     or other very reliable sources.  Then you rely on these tools, especially

20     polls, interviews, questionnaires.  It is very important to choose your

21     samples skillfully.

22             There are many types of samples.  They are determined

23     mathematically, statistically for the sample to be representative and

24     reflect the whole or the area that you -- that's the object of your

25     research in order to depict the situation in that area as well as

Page 20497

 1     possible.  But I must stress that it is very difficult to have a sample

 2     that would give a 100 per cent faithful presentation of the situation in

 3     a certain area or territory.

 4        Q.   Professor, can final results within demographic research be

 5     obtained without a population census, and I'm specifically referring to

 6     Bosnia-Herzegovina now?

 7        A.   Well, I can start with a joke, maybe yes, maybe no.  In

 8     Bosnia-Herzegovina, the census is the most relevant and the most

 9     comprehensive research conducted by statistical research and I have

10     explained why.  We have no more relevant source.  With regard to the

11     complexity of the subject matter, we cannot arrive at the most valid and

12     most original works without a census, but of course, even without a

13     census life doesn't stand still, then we use other methods.

14             Currently, everything is based on estimates in my country, but

15     estimates are like chewing gum, so somebody estimates that there have

16     been 300.000 victims in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and then institutions are --

17     the most comprehensive research conducted by Ewa Tabeau and the IDC in

18     Sarajevo mention a number of victims that amounts to one-third of that

19     figure.  So estimates are relative but we are still using them because

20     without a census, there is no better data.  That is why it's important to

21     rely on a large number of sources in your research in order to avoid

22     statistical subjectivity, bias, and in order to avoid creating wrong

23     historic images of the situation in certain areas.

24        Q.   It is not contested before this Tribunal, and you have also

25     mentioned it, is the fact that the last census in former Yugoslavia and

Page 20498

 1     in Bosnia-Herzegovina was conducted in 1991.  What I would like to know

 2     is whether there have been any censuses in the -- since in the

 3     Republika Srpska?

 4        A.   Let me point out immediately that according to international

 5     methodology, or, more specifically, the United Nations methodology

 6     because they determined the methodology that is binding on all countries

 7     in the world, and they -- the methodology also contains some guide-lines.

 8     But internal censuses are not prohibited in a territorial unit that is

 9     smaller than a country, but the Republika Srpska has not conducted a

10     population census until 1996 when a rather comprehensive census of

11     refugees and displaced persons was made.  That data was very significant

12     and it's still used for several purposes including research.  There

13     has -- the data of the number of refugees and displaced persons has been

14     reviewed since and there are also different figures from the federal

15     statistics bureau.  And let me mention that at the level of

16     Bosnia-Herzegovina there is also the statistical agency.  These are the

17     three organisations that are relevant for the publication of statistical

18     data.  And I mostly use the statistical data from these institutions if I

19     can because other data -- using other data would be arbitrary and less

20     than serious from the scientific point of view.

21        Q.   All right.  According to the principles of statistical methods,

22     by taking samples for certain municipalities, or just for one or several

23     ethnic groups, could one draw from that and provide overall data for all

24     of Bosnia-Herzegovina?

25        A.   I believe this to be one of the crucial issues in these

Page 20499

 1     proceedings.  As we explained all the demographic and all other

 2     complexities in the entire territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina creating any

 3     sample from specific municipalities which should represent the entirety

 4     of Bosnia-Herzegovina is practically impossible.  This can be elaborated

 5     by giving a number of examples, including the ones from Ms. Tabeau's

 6     documents which I have studied where one can use good arguments to refute

 7     some of the conclusions which were drawn while admitting that great

 8     effort has been made and that this was huge work, this principle of work,

 9     statistical and mathematical, cannot be applied from a distance to such a

10     complex ethnic and demographic space as Bosnia-Herzegovina is.  That is

11     why I emphasise that empirical research is something that is necessary

12     when dealing with such issues.  This is research on the ground knowing

13     the area really well, working in the field, and conducting original

14     scientific research.  That is when we can use the tools we recently

15     talked about, using the polls, questionnaires, and interviews, but only

16     if they are standardised, unless they are being changed and unless they

17     are arbitrary.

18        Q.   When using the samples method, can the subjectivity of choosing

19     specific municipalities can entail certain risks?  [Microphone not

20     activated] ... I apologise, my microphone was off and the interpreters

21     have not heard me.

22             Professor, if the selection of municipalities which are to be

23     covered by the samples is subjective, does it entail the risk you just

24     mentioned?

25        A.   Yes, and your question is somewhat suggestive because whenever

Page 20500

 1     anyone is subjective then the picture you create about anything is

 2     different.  If I selected a different sample of municipalities, you would

 3     see that the picture we would get would be completely different from what

 4     has been represented in this case.  That means that subjectivity would

 5     have to be excluded in order to avoid creating false historical pictures

 6     concerning certain processes and phenomena.  This is why I believe that a

 7     number of works dealing with this issue, and that is the purpose of my

 8     report, provide a more comprehensive and more realistic picture of what

 9     took place in the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina, at least with respect

10     to the demographic aspect of the issue that we are discussing here today.

11        Q.   When we discuss Bosnia-Herzegovina, do we have to take into

12     account the entire territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina in order to arrive at

13     valid data?

14        A.   From what I just answered when answering to your previous

15     question, the answer is of course.  The picture that is by far more

16     realistic would be obtained if we covered the entire territory of

17     Bosnia-Herzegovina and represented by facts everything that was

18     researched, all the phenomena and everything else.  Then we would have

19     the most relevant and the most comprehensive picture of everything that

20     has to do with demographic processes, whatever is done partially, in

21     terms of research in certain areas of Bosnia-Herzegovina, cannot provide

22     such a picture.  I claim this categorically and I can prove it factually

23     at any given moment.

24        Q.   Does that have anything to do with the argument you mentioned,

25     the argument concerning communicating vessels where the population shifts

Page 20501

 1     from one area to another and so on?

 2        A.   Of course.  This is an additional argument considering that the

 3     population of Bosnia-Herzegovina within its borders and without the

 4     borders of Bosnia-Herzegovina is prone to movements.  What illustrates

 5     this are two millions [as interpreted] of people who moved from their

 6     households at the beginning of the war, about 1 million left

 7     Bosnia-Herzegovina and another million within Bosnia-Herzegovina.  This

 8     will be the category of the so-called displaced persons, around 1

 9     million.  That is sufficient to illustrate the principle which we call

10     chain reaction or communicating vessels or something similar.  This is

11     why it is very difficult to prepare a sample and prove on a sample all

12     the demographic issues in connection with this subject.

13             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, by now in the evidence

14     we've heard that there's a principle of connected vessels which is also

15     known as a principle call the domino effect, and now we find it's the --

16     furthermore, it has a third name, chain reaction.  There's been, so far,

17     and I'm not aware of anywhere in the report where this principle that

18     goes by three names has been explained.  In order for you to follow this

19     evidence, you'll have to find out eventually at some point and I suggest

20     now would be a good time, what exactly the principle of connected vessels

21     or the domino effects or chain reaction exactly is.

22             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation]

23        Q.   Professor, I will not repeat my learned friend the Prosecutor's

24     question.  Can you please explain what the Prosecutor is interested in.

25        A.   I have understood Mr. Prosecutor's question.  I believe that in

Page 20502

 1     my previous answers, I tried to illustrate that by using an example.  In

 2     addition to the three municipalities, i.e., Zavidovici, Kljuc and Sanski

 3     Most, I also included the example of the Bijeljina municipality, from

 4     where 24.000 Muslims moved out but at the same time 39.000 Serbs came to

 5     Bijeljina.  From where, from Sarajevo, from Tuzla and from Zenica.  I

 6     mean, these towns and the surrounding areas.  Simultaneously, from

 7     Bijeljina, Zvornik, Banja Luka, Doboj and so on, the Muslim population

 8     moved out into the towns from which Serbs have moved to the listed towns.

 9     Likewise, the Croatian population oriented itself towards Mostar,

10     Western Herzegovina and enclaves that I mentioned: Zepce, in

11     Central Bosnia, and Odzak and Orasje in the Posavina region.  However,

12     the picture often changed during the war because some of the areas were,

13     on several occasions, controlled by one or the other or the third

14     military formation, let me put it that way.  Symbolically, we called it,

15     under quotation marks, communicating vessels or chain reactions, even

16     though the expert terms that we used are not symbolic or figurative in

17     that kind.  The idea was to be as figurative as possible for a wider

18     audience, and this is why we mention that here today.  But I think that

19     it was clear what is meant by the chain reaction or as Mr. Prosecutor

20     called it, the domino effect.  Something is torn down in one area,

21     something is built up in another one.  This is a demographic

22     characteristic of movements of the population in Bosnia-Herzegovina,

23     especially during war time.

24        Q.   All right, Professor.  One ethnic group, if it moves out from a

25     certain area and comes to another area where this ethnic group

Page 20503

 1     constitutes the majority, by moving in this way, does it exert pressure

 2     on other ethnic groups which then have to leave?  Could that be the chain

 3     reaction process, as I understand it, and please correct me if I'm wrong?

 4        A.   Well, I think that essentially you have understood the problem

 5     correctly.  When due to the forced migration, a group of people from one

 6     ethnic group comes to one specific area, then indirectly pressure is

 7     exerted on another ethnic group who had been living there earlier.  That

 8     ethnic group feels more insecure because war implies many terrible

 9     things, people have left their family members, some extremist or

10     paramilitary groups appear and great insecurity is felt by the civilians,

11     and then people were willing to leave everything they have, all their

12     property and to go to territory which they would consider to be more safe

13     which was most often an area where their ethnic group was predominant.

14     This is what I called voluntary migration, and these are absolute

15     characteristics of demographic movement in Bosnia-Herzegovina during the

16     war between 1991 and 1995.  And it peaked just before the outbreak of the

17     war and during the initial period of the conflict, because later on the

18     borders were closed, movements were made more difficult, and even if you

19     wanted, you could not move from one area to another, it was impossible.

20        Q.   All right.  Professor, have there been conditions after the war

21     and up until now to make a study that would cover the entire territory of

22     Bosnia-Herzegovina and that would deal with all the issues pertaining to

23     demographic movements in Bosnia-Herzegovina during the war and up to this

24     day?

25        A.   Let me first say that there is a great need for such work.  On

Page 20504

 1     the other hand, so far we have not managed to produce such a

 2     comprehensive study at the level of Bosnia-Herzegovina in order to

 3     determine all the facts.  I primarily have in mind something that would

 4     be produced internally within Bosnia-Herzegovina by the local

 5     professionals and scientists who have not produced such a work.

 6             The most comprehensive research is believed to be the work of

 7     Ewa Tabeau and IDC, Mr. Tokaca, on the one hand; and in terms of the area

 8     of Republika Srpska, I think that would including my own remember search.

 9     This is why I emphasised in my report that if these three studies and

10     many others that are necessary could somehow be integrated, we would get

11     a quite different, more comprehensive, more realistic fact about all

12     developments and demographic changes in the territory of

13     Bosnia-Herzegovina.

14             I can just announce along these lines that soon a book written by

15     me will be published, so these three researches perhaps taken together

16     might provide a more comprehensive research focused on Bosnia-Herzegovina

17     that would be based on scientific facts without any impartiality or

18     subjectivity which is not to be accepted in science, and without any

19     compromise because there can be no compromise in science.  That is

20     acceptable in politics.

21        Q.   In such an effort, would you and everyone else striving to make

22     such a report, the census would be of any help, the census which is being

23     constantly talked about in Bosnia-Herzegovina and would be a good idea to

24     produce such a study only once a census is conducted?

25        A.   As for the professionals from this field in Bosnia-Herzegovina,

Page 20505

 1     we have said a census is something that is most necessary at this moment.

 2     It should cover the territory of all of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  After 20

 3     years, it is really needed if we are to have valid statistical data.

 4             If I may just illustrate how important that is by giving another

 5     example.  After the war, Croatia conducted a census in 2001 and faced all

 6     the other -- all the major demographic problems in that country.  I think

 7     this is something that is necessary in Bosnia-Herzegovina as well.

 8     However, the issue of the population census in Bosnia-Herzegovina has

 9     shifted into the field of politics and it is now only a political issue.

10     Once the law on the census is adopted and the political agreement has to

11     be reached first, then the technical part of the census can be carried

12     out quite easily and we expect this to take place next year at the

13     latest.

14             We would then enter another census decade as recommended by

15     United Nations to all countries of the world so that the data would be

16     included in international statistical databases that it could be compared

17     and that various development programmes could be created.  Without the

18     census Bosnia-Herzegovina would have major problems in connection with

19     this and also when it comes to accessing funds from the European Union,

20     and so on, which would make its overall development quite difficult.

21        Q.   All right.  I will now move on to something else.  Namely,

22     Professor, in the introductory section of your report, you cite the

23     examples of the Zavidovici, Kljuc and Sanski Most municipalities, and you

24     note the decrease in the numbers of Muslims.  First of all, I have to ask

25     you whether Zavidovici was under the control of Muslim forces throughout

Page 20506

 1     the war?  I have in mind only the Zavidovici municipality.  And are they

 2     now part of the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina?

 3             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please, unless I've misunderstood

 4     Mr. Cvijetic's question, the number of Bosniaks increased.

 5             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] If that's how it's recorded then

 6     it's wrong.

 7             MR. Di FAZIO:  Yeah, it says 34.198 in 1991 and 34.227 in 2009,

 8     according to this table.  I want to make sure Dr. Pasalic has the correct

 9     figures when he is discussing this.

10             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] I agree.  I don't want to testify

11     either and Professor Pasalic will explain that.  But if you have

12     carefully read the expert report, then you will see how this difference

13     is accounted for.

14        Q.   Could you help us, Professor?

15        A.   I can explain to you based on the table, though it is explained

16     in the text.  Let's take Zavidovici municipality as our example.  It had

17     57.164 inhabitants in 1991, of which number 34.198 Muslims.  In 2009, the

18     estimate is that the municipality had 38.027 inhabitants which means a

19     decrease of about 19.000.  Why?  Because about 10.000 Serbs left and 5-

20     to 6.000 Croats.  We could say that this -- this is the compensation.  We

21     have said that about 10.000 displaced persons from Eastern Bosnia, mostly

22     from Srebrenica, settled the area.  I know that because I was born and

23     grew up in that area.  It was mostly populated by people from Srebrenica

24     who were transferred there.

25             If you see -- if you add these 10.000 then you see that 10.000

Page 20507

 1     native Muslims were missing.  Why?  I have explained that as well.  All

 2     three ethnic groups were leaving during the war but also after the war.

 3     Zavidovici municipality can even be taken as a representative example for

 4     the emigration of all three ethnic groups.  The demographic losses of

 5     this municipality amount to almost 20.000, but this comprises all ethnic

 6     groups, including the one that was dominant before the war and remained

 7     dominant after the war.  But the other ethnic groups also left during the

 8     war for economic reasons, for reasons of lack of security on safety.  And

 9     I can mention another example, the Krivaja timber industry which was

10     basically closed down and some 30.000 people were left without a job.

11     That's why emigration was very strong here.  That was the largest timber

12     processing plant in former Yugoslavia.  They had 12- to 14.000 employees

13     overall, not only Zavidovici but also other places.  They are out of

14     business and certainly the native -- the local Muslims also left the

15     area.

16             I must also say the following :  The absolute capacities of all

17     ethnic groups in Bosnia-Herzegovina have diminished since the war.

18     Relative indicators only change in local or regional areas so that the

19     percentage of the Bosniaks in Zavidovici has now risen to about 90

20     per cent; however, the absolute human capacity is smaller than before the

21     war.  I'm now referring to the native population.  This has created -- or

22     rather, a distorted image has come to being by the arrival of displaced

23     persons.  In Bosnia-Herzegovina, this problem is only finally solved for

24     about -- for a smaller number of persons.  The international convention

25     does not protect internally displaced persons.  It's a matter that should

Page 20508

 1     be dealt with by their country as opposed to the issue of refugees who

 2     enjoy international protection.

 3        Q.   Professor, let us try to corroborate your thesis about emigration

 4     with examples from Ms. Tabeau's book.

 5             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Can we please see 65 ter 10368.

 6     398, sorry.  10398.  And that's now Exhibit P01627, if I'm not mistaken.

 7     Once we see it, I will give you your right page reference.  Could we

 8     please go to page 81 in Serbian and page 72 in English.  Page 72 in

 9     English and page 81 in Serbian.

10        Q.   Professor, you don't have to look because the page numbers do not

11     coincide with the page numbers in the electronic version.  In your hard

12     copy, it's page 85.  But you can also see it on the screen, but I believe

13     you'll see it better in the hard copy.

14             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Could we please enlarge the top.

15     Actually, only the part of the text in bold type.  No, I mean further

16     down where the numbers are.  That's right.

17        Q.   Professor, I would like to draw your attention to something in

18     this table.  It's titled -- it's part of Annex A1.  We want to focus on

19     the numbers here.  The language isn't really an issue here because it's

20     only the numbers we are interested in.  Professor, look at the Muslims

21     according to the 1991 census.  The Muslims in the Federation of

22     Bosnia-Herzegovina, the number is 375.522, can you see it?

23        A.   Yes.

24        Q.   Let me point out to you that this is not the entire Federation,

25     only nine municipalities that were dealt with in the Milosevic case, so

Page 20509

 1     don't get puzzled by the number.  So this is the population in these nine

 2     municipalities, 375.522.

 3             MR. Di FAZIO:  I object, if Your Honours please.  The title needs

 4     to be read, "Status of 1991 and 1997, 1998: Individuals Born Before

 5     1980."  It's part of the population.

 6             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] I agree, but I wanted to read it

 7     all.  But I'm now focusing only on the numbers.

 8        Q.   Let us now move on to 1997, 1998, Professor.  And we can see a

 9     decrease of the absolute number of inhabitants to 268.745.  Can you see

10     that number?

11        A.   Yes.

12        Q.   But in the last column where a percentage is stated, we can see

13     an increase by 57.5 per cent in these nine municipalities.  This is an

14     increase in the share of the Muslims.  At first sight this may be a

15     mathematical paradox.  Can you explain, could this be conclusion or could

16     this follow from what you were saying a minute ago?

17        A.   Yes.  That is exactly the case.  The absolute demographic

18     capacities were reduced, whereas the relative indicators have changed.

19     If I may say, although it doesn't say so here, but I have research into

20     this, the overall demographic losses in Bosnia-Herzegovina are about

21     800.000 from 1992 through 2010.  That, of course, includes all ethnic

22     groups.

23        Q.   Professor, but let's stick to the table for the time being --

24             MR. Di FAZIO:  If Your Honours please.  I am sorry to interrupt,

25     but the way the transcript is coming out, it's misleading.  If you look

Page 20510

 1     at those figures, they apply only to the Milosevic case area, they only

 2     apply to individuals born before 1980, and the figure of plus 57 per cent

 3     only applies to that part of the Milosevic municipalities that were

 4     studied that are in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  It's by no

 5     means related to nine municipalities or Bosnia-wide.  It's very specific.

 6     If you just go horizontally across and you can see what that summary of

 7     figures means.  Republika Srpska, percentage change in Muslims down by

 8     95 per cent; in the Federation, up by 57.  That is the area it's talking

 9     about and group within that Muslim population, namely those born before

10     1980.  So you got to be precise now because these tables are trying to be

11     as precise as they can, and you can't just simply have generalised

12     questions and answers, otherwise you won't understand this table which is

13     what this evidence is about.

14             JUDGE HALL:  Mr. Di Fazio, and I speak entirely for myself, it

15     seems to me that the -- and I confess my difficulty with figures such as

16     this, but for comprehension, wouldn't it be simpler for Mr. Cvijetic to

17     lead the evidence in the way that he understands it and you to reserve

18     your matters for cross-examination?  Wouldn't that make it more

19     comprehensible for all of us?

20             MR. Di FAZIO:  Certainly, if you prefer me to approach it in that

21     fashion, I'm happy to do that.  But I'd just like to alert the

22     Trial Chamber to the need for, when following the evidence, to look long

23     and hard at these particular tables as the evidence proceeds.  But I'll

24     do it in the manner that you suggested --

25             JUDGE HALL:  You'll flag these tables when the come up and take

Page 20511

 1     us back to it at the appropriate time.

 2             MR. Di FAZIO:  Yes.

 3             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] I believe that the Prosecutor is

 4     anticipating my following questions.  So I would just like to ask for a

 5     bit of patience and everything will be clear.

 6        Q.   Professor, how and for what reason did the percentage of Muslims

 7     rise if the absolute number dropped so sharply?  That would be my first

 8     question.

 9        A.   If you listened to my previous answers carefully, this can all be

10     subsumed under the process of ethnic territorial homogenisation, although

11     I must immediately state some doubt with regard to these numbers which

12     represent the share of the population that was born before 1980.  To my

13     mind, this is irrelevant, and I refuted that on using the examples of

14     some municipalities because the calculations by which these numbers were

15     arrived at were very simple or simplified.  Why?  Because the differences

16     in natural population growth is such that the Muslims who have the

17     greatest population growth obviously have the strongest group of -- the

18     largest share in the younger population.  That's why such a simplified

19     image came into being.

20             It is clear that the Muslim population settled in municipalities

21     that belonged to the Federation, and although their absolute capacities

22     were reduced, and I said that was because 800.000 people are missing from

23     Bosnia-Herzegovina as compared to the previous census, then all relative

24     indicators change and only they -- in the Federation, the Muslim

25     populations are dominant here and the RS the Serbs, but both, and also

Page 20512

 1     the Croats, have a reduced absolute capacity.  There are also official

 2     statistical data from the Federal Bureau of Statistics that are based on

 3     estimates, and these are identical.  So this is just the shifting of

 4     population from one region to another for reasons of war losses, direct

 5     or indirect, purely demographic losses and also, of course, overall

 6     demographic losses.

 7             By way of conclusion, let me say that what was presented in

 8     Ewa Tabeau's report to my mind is irrelevant because more elements,

 9     criteria and factors should have been included to get more accurate data,

10     especially for 1997, 1998, where the author herself stated that the

11     results were arrived at based on some unreliable sources.  That's very

12     obvious and I agree with that absolutely, so that these numbers should

13     not be taken for granted, although the overall trend is clear, namely the

14     process of ethnic territorial homogenisation in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

15        Q.   The essence of my question is the last thing you said, was this

16     growth of the relative share of the Muslim population irrespective of the

17     drop in their absolute number a result of the moving out of Serb and

18     Croatian population in the area?

19        A.   Certainly.  We are talking about municipalities that are now part

20     of the Federation of BH where the Serb population but also the Croatian

21     population is the absolute minority.  Although all groups' capacities

22     have diminished, still the relative share of an ethnic group, in this

23     case the Muslims, has grown in municipalities that belong to the

24     Federation of BH.  We can also speak about the reverse process, of

25     course.  I hope that this is sufficient.

Page 20513

 1        Q.   We will get to the opposite process as well, I'm interested in

 2     another piece of information now.  Which of the factors affected the

 3     moving out of the Muslim population and the reduction in absolute numbers

 4     in the area that was under the Muslim control during the war and now

 5     remains within the territory of the Federation of BH?

 6        A.   Perhaps I will repeat some of the data.  During the war, there

 7     were numerous political, economic, social, psychological factors, and

 8     then after the war the dominant factors are the economic ones.  These are

 9     the factors that cause the moving out of the population within the

10     municipalities belonging to the Federation.  I can corroborate this with

11     the following data published by the Federal Bureau of Statistics.  Not a

12     single canton out of 10, except the Tuzla and Sarajevo canton, has the

13     same number of residents as in 1991.  All of them in absolute terms have

14     fewer residents.  Tuzla and Sarajevo have approximately the same number

15     of residents.  However, the relative indicators have changed and now the

16     dominant population in all cantons but three are the Muslims, and in the

17     three it's Croats that are dominant, Western Herzegovina canton, Posavina

18     canton and Canton 10.  It is visible that in these cantons, and if we add

19     to it -- we can also add to it Podrinje canton, have a negative

20     birth-rate or birth growth which means that Bosnia population has the

21     largest share in all of these population structures because

22     traditionally, both in former Yugoslavia and currently, that ethnic group

23     has the largest growth rate or birth-rate even though it is now smaller

24     than before the war.  This is typical for many countries in Europe that

25     have not completed demographic transition processes unlike some other

Page 20514

 1     European countries that have completed that process.

 2             So let me repeat once again, what is shown here in this report by

 3     Mrs. Tabeau cannot be relevant if we were to take into account all

 4     factors and facts that I spoke of when it comes to these matters.  In

 5     this regard, we need to include a much broader selection of facts in

 6     order to come to the conclusions that would be of greater quality and

 7     validity.

 8        Q.   All right.  I will now give you an opportunity to give your final

 9     judgement on this, but before we get to that, please look at the column

10     with the final numbers above the figure of 57.5 per cent.  Right above it

11     is minus 95.5 per cent which pertains to the number of Muslims in the

12     Republika Srpska as compared to the 1991 census information.  Do you see

13     that?

14        A.   Yes.

15        Q.   Do not comment on it now, just keep it in your mind for the time

16     being while we move to page 89 in the Serbian version, since we are

17     dealing with figures only now.  Let's look at the column entitled

18     "Serbs," please, and could we enlarge the bolded part, please.

19     Excellent.  Now, please, look at the situation with the Serbian

20     population in the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Please go to the

21     last column where we see the figure of minus 88.2 per cent.  Do you see

22     that?

23        A.   Yes.

24        Q.   Professor -- it's page 80 in English, for reference.  With all

25     doubts that you had concerning this data, if we were to compare these

Page 20515

 1     percentages, in the Federation, according to Ewa Tabeau, the number of

 2     Serbs has been reduced by 95.5 per cent, and in Republika Srpska, the

 3     number of Muslims was reduced by 88.2 per cent.  So let me repeat the

 4     question that I already put to you:  This piece of information, is it

 5     indicative with respect to your thesis on overflowing and shifts of

 6     population?

 7        A.   Let us be clear, please.  When I spoke about the inaccuracy of

 8     this data, it pertained to these figures which I assert are not fully

 9     accurate.  However, I did not mean to challenge the process which took

10     place in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the process of movement of population

11     towards dominantly populated regions for each ethnic group, and this

12     process confirms this.  If we were to analyse percentages nowadays, we

13     would get a completely different picture.  For example, let me confirm

14     this for you.

15             According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics in the Federation,

16     there are currently 4 per cent of Serbs living.  In 1991, and you have

17     that information before you, there were 17.6 per cent of Serbs or near

18     500.000 Serbs living in the same territory of the Federation.  As for

19     Muslims in Republika Srpska, according to 1991 census, there were about

20     28 per cent of them; whereas in the sample offered by Ms. Tabeau, we see

21     the figure of 30, 32 per cent of Muslims that had left the area of

22     Republika Srpska.  This is why this is not accurate data.  This is the

23     principle of territorial ethnic homogenisation of ethnic groups which

24     shows us that there was a transfer of population.  Sometimes it was

25     caused by ethnic cleansing, sometimes it was caused by deportations and

Page 20516

 1     prosecution.  I've already explained that to you.  These processes

 2     continue to this day.  In Republika Srpska, we have a different picture

 3     nowadays, I'll show you figures later on, and you will see that some

 4     200.000 residents of other ethnic groups returned to Republika Srpska

 5     which is about 20 per cent of its total population.  And if we remember

 6     that the Federation is composed of Muslims and Croats and that they

 7     currently comprise 95 per cent of total population, and there are about

 8     4 per cent of Serbs and 1 per cent of others, then we see that this

 9     process of return and change of ethnic picture in Federation lags behind

10     the same processes in Republika Srpska.

11             So the picture is changing in both entities, but right now it is

12     more positive in the territory of Republika Srpska.  I am speaking on the

13     basis of information that come from the Federal Bureau for Statistics so

14     that there's no doubt about this information being biased or you should

15     not have any doubts because this information does not come from Republika

16     Srpska, it comes from the Federation.  And I'm here to answer any of the

17     questions you may have.

18        Q.   All right.  Since we are going move to another topic tomorrow,

19     let us now conclude with this topic, Professor.  Therefore, in the

20     territory of the Federation, we see a drop in the absolute figures of

21     Muslim population.  This is beyond dispute.  And you say that there is

22     such a trend in the entire Bosnia-Herzegovina, that is to say that this

23     trend is observed in Republika Srpska as well, did I get it right?

24        A.   Yes, you did.

25        Q.   Now, during war, was the war itself as a force majeure something

Page 20517

 1     that contributed to these trends and to what extent?

 2        A.   Naturally.  Not only in Bosnia and Herzegovina but elsewhere as

 3     well.  The war is the strongest motive for transfer of population.  Given

 4     that 2 million residents of Bosnia-Herzegovina moved about, one million

 5     going outside of Bosnia-Herzegovina and one million shifting within

 6     Bosnia-Herzegovina, that shows that due to political, economic -- or

 7     rather, in addition to political, economic and social factors, the war

 8     was the greatest factor effecting movement of population.

 9             But what is even more important is that even after the war, the

10     demographic figures in Bosnia-Herzegovina continued to drop in the entire

11     territory and also in certain regions because there is not a single

12     municipality in the entire Bosnia-Herzegovina that has the same number of

13     residents as before the war except for very few exceptions, such as

14     densely populated urban areas, Sarajevo, Banja Luka and Bijeljina in the

15     Republika Srpska.  All other regions in Bosnia-Herzegovina registered a

16     drop in human resources, and that in itself caused relative changes,

17     caused what we described as ethnic territorial homogenisation in certain

18     areas, that is to say that there was a redistribution of population

19     within Bosnia-Herzegovina itself.  These are the evident trends that have

20     been present in Bosnia-Herzegovina since 1992 until nowadays.

21             MR. CVIJETIC: [Interpretation] Your Honours, I want to move to

22     some other topics, namely to the expert report of Professor Pasalic, so

23     please don't be upset that I ask that we finish for the day.  It will not

24     affect the final estimate of time that I told you I needed for his

25     examination-in-chief.

Page 20518

 1             JUDGE HALL:  Yes, Mr. Cvijetic.

 2             Professor Pasalic, we are about to take the adjournment for

 3     today, the first day of your testimony.  And at this stage, I would point

 4     out to you that having been sworn as a witness, you cannot have any

 5     communication with counsel from either side in the matter until you are

 6     released by the Court.  Moreover, in such conversations as you may have

 7     with persons outside of the Chamber, you cannot discuss your testimony.

 8     Do you understand what I've just said?

 9             THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] All right.  I have understood it.

10             JUDGE HALL:  Yes, thank you.  So we take the adjournment.

11     Reconvene tomorrow morning at 9.00.

12                           [The witness stands down]

13                           --- Whereupon the hearing adjourned at 1.38 p.m.

14                           to be reconvened on Wednesday, the 11th day of May,

15                           2011, at 9.00 a.m.